The compact disc is not yet ready to leave the world's stage

By WITH JIM HAYES

Wednesday November 16 2011

REPORTS of the death of the CD have been exaggerated. True, the compact disc is in decline, but there's plenty of life in the old dog yet, with sales of CDS dropping at a much slower rate than predicted by numerous experts a few years back.

A couple of weeks ago some music bloggers highlighted a report that appeared to suggest that certain music labels were considering abandoning the CD as early as the end of next year.

This is highly unlikely. CD sales may be slowly dropping, but they are still important revenue earners, accounting for a fair chunk of an industry still worth over €100bn.

The digital download is not to the CD what the CD was to the cassette at the end of the eighties. Where CD quality far outstripped tape, the sound quality of the mp3 format is generally inferior to CD, in order to keep file size down.

There are other considerations that are prolonging the life of the CD. Many music fans still like the convenience of the format, especially in the car and home hi fi where ipods and other mp3 players generally require the use of a dock or connecting cable.

Then of course there's the appeal of the physical product. Many fans still like to have something tangible in their hand after forking out the cash, and many too prefer CD artwork with printed lyrics over onscreen documents and jpegs. As HMV chief executive Simon Fox notes: ' You can't wrap a download for Christmas'.

American technology research firm Gartner, who three years ago urged record labels to stop selling compact discs to focus on developing online opportunities, have changed their tune in recent weeks. They predict that while digital sales are on the up, and CD sales coming down, physical music will still reign in 2015, with projected CD sales of €7.3 billion, as opposed to digital sales of €5.6 billion.

On that basis, the CD will be around for the best part of the next decade, though this will come as no comfort to bricks-and-mortar record stores who not only face digital competition, but also the might of major online stores who have fewer overheads and can bulk buy to offer substantial discounts on CDS.

Record companies are not ready to throw in the towel on CDS just yet, but the day will inevitably come when CD follows vinyl into a niche market of diehard fans and enthusiasts.

By then CD'S decline will have been hastened by the younger buyer who is largely responsible for the growth in digital sales and already views the compact disc as a bit of a dinosaur. ' Show me a teenager buying a Susan Boyle album on CD and I'll show you someone buying a gift for their grandparent... for Christmas,' jokes Billboard senior chart manager and analyst, Keith Caulfield. The good news is that whatever the format, music is still big business. Figures from the U.S. this month suggest that total sales in 2011 will be well ahead of 2010 by year's end, helped considerably by the mammoth success of albums from the likes of Adele and Lady Gaga.

'Music is definitely still in fashion,' says an upbeat Caulfield. 'It's all around us.'

- WITH JIM HAYES

Damn right, how all Susan Boyle's stans going to slay if there arent any CD's on the rack?

Really. Same with Adele. I think once people see that she's selling 100,000 copies a week, they'll stop to think about that prediction. Oddly enough the people who initially were against this theory of CDs ending distribution as far as it being the main form of money for the industry when sales were low are now saying it's ending while CD sales have picked up this year. Very odd.

I don't think cds will ever go away completely, despite what some are saying. Everyone is not tech savvy enough (or can afford to pay for extra services in their cars).

Timmy84 said:

Really. Same with Adele. I think once people see that she's selling 100,000 copies a week, they'll stop to think about that prediction. Oddly enough the people who initially were against this theory of CDs ending distribution as far as it being the main form of money for the industry when sales were low are now saying it's ending while CD sales have picked up this year. Very odd.

Not hating on Adele but is her music THAT great or is she hyped a lot because she's not using auto-tune and isn't black?

SeventeenDayze said:

Timmy84 said:

Really. Same with Adele. I think once people see that she's selling 100,000 copies a week, they'll stop to think about that prediction. Oddly enough the people who initially were against this theory of CDs ending distribution as far as it being the main form of money for the industry when sales were low are now saying it's ending while CD sales have picked up this year. Very odd.

Not hating on Adele but is her music THAT great or is she hyped a lot because she's not using auto-tune and isn't black?

It's that damn good IMHO. If you don't like it, that's your opinion lol

Timmy84 said:

SeventeenDayze said:

Not hating on Adele but is her music THAT great or is she hyped a lot because she's not using auto-tune and isn't black?

It's that damn good IMHO. If you don't like it, that's your opinion lol

I probably should have said that I have only heard a few of her songs....guess I was scarred from hearing Rolling in the Deep WAYYYYYYYYYYYYYY too much lol

SeventeenDayze said:

Timmy84 said:

It's that damn good IMHO. If you don't like it, that's your opinion lol

I probably should have said that I have only heard a few of her songs....guess I was scarred from hearing Rolling in the Deep WAYYYYYYYYYYYYYY too much lol

Yeah, they milked the hell out of that song. For what? A year almost before release the 2nd single?

SeventeenDayze said:

Timmy84 said:

It's that damn good IMHO. If you don't like it, that's your opinion lol

I probably should have said that I have only heard a few of her songs....guess I was scarred from hearing Rolling in the Deep WAYYYYYYYYYYYYYY too much lol

That should've gotten you to go "let me buy this album!"

bobbyperu said:

On a side note, Timmy, sometimes I'm really blind.Took me ages to realize you're using a Marvin Gaye picture!

Yep I am lol

Good! I still like CDs

What does her not being black have to do with it? lord bringing race into stuff is so stupid

I still buy cd's, and get excited sometimes for the new cd coming out. People like Adele can still sell cd's.... i think more artists will come around that sell better in the next few years.

It's funny that CD's are in danger of extinction already. I remember when they first came out. My last vinyl was Sign O the Times. I love album art and liner notes. I couldn't imagine buying an album and only getting a download and nothing to hold. Guess I'm a dinosaur. LOL

^ I don't think that "dinosaur" theory matters much anymore. Even some young folks are like "I rather have a CD".

Timmy84 said:

Really. Same with Adele. I think once people see that she's selling 100,000 copies a week, they'll stop to think about that prediction. Oddly enough the people who initially were against this theory of CDs ending distribution as far as it being the main form of money for the industry when sales were low are now saying it's ending while CD sales have picked up this year. Very odd.

CD sales havent picked up but have stopped dropping as fast. Cd remains the dominant share of album sales but in the next 2-3yrs digital will be same or more then cd sales. Digital sales have been up. digital single sales r up about 10% this yr

What has picked up is album sales by 3% so far this yr. the last couple of yrs was really bad sales were down double digits. every yr. sales peaked in 2000 and have been falling off ever since. the only respite was 2004 when they went up slightly.

I think cd sales still make up 2/3 of the total album sales currently

asg said:

I think cd sales still make up 2/3 of the total album sales currently

This is mainly why I'm in the opinion it will still be a long while before CDs as far as major distribution are "put out to pasture" but anything can happen especially if suddenly digital sales began tanking.

Timmy84 said:

asg said:

I think cd sales still make up 2/3 of the total album sales currently

This is mainly why I'm in the opinion it will still be a long while before CDs as far as major distribution are "put out to pasture" but anything can happen especially if suddenly digital sales began tanking.

digital isnt going to tank but the current trend is cds reducing by 20% and digital album sales going up 15% each yr

I say in 15-20 years they'll be gone.

musicjunky318 said:

I say in 15-20 years they'll be gone.

I predict 2041.

Timmy84 said:

musicjunky318 said:

I say in 15-20 years they'll be gone.

I predict 2041.

Oh god I'll be 52. Old as matusalem.

musicjunky318 said:

Timmy84 said:

I predict 2041.

Oh god I'll be 52. Old as matusalem.

By then kids would probably be listening to albums with a chip in their ear.

Timmy84 said:

musicjunky318 said:

Oh god I'll be 52. Old as matusalem.

By then kids would probably be listening to albums with a chip in their ear.

Yea that's what I was thinking too. Something small.

i think cds will be niche in 10yrs. 10yrs is a long time in technology

CDs are almost all but done already. As usual, the suits are behind.

Did you know that disco record sales were up 400% for the year ending 1976? If these trends continue....ayyyyy

spacedolphin said:

Did you know that disco record sales were up 400% for the year ending 1976? If these trends continue....ayyyyy

AnaisKarim said:

It's funny that CD's are in danger of extinction already. I remember when they first came out. My last vinyl was Sign O the Times. I love album art and liner notes. I couldn't imagine buying an album and only getting a download and nothing to hold. Guess I'm a dinosaur. LOL

I'm a dinosaur too 'Graffiti Bridge' was the first CD that I purchased.I can't imagine buying music in digital form only.I like the artwork,the lyrics,the photos inside a CD booklet.I also still buy alot of vinyl.I have an Old School mentality when it comes to music.

Nah, CD's are sooooo out!

Vinyl is it now!

Gunsnhalen said:

What does her not being black have to do with it? lord bringing race into stuff is so stupid

I still buy cd's, and get excited sometimes for the new cd coming out. People like Adele can still sell cd's.... i think more artists will come around that sell better in the next few years.

Race plays a HUGE factor into how artists are marketed and their target demographics. There is a huge nice for white artists who "sound' black who are actually not black. Writing off that is very naive and totally invalidates the real issues that persist in the entertainment industry.