Well it's down to 4. Blake, Jordin, LaKisha and Melinda are the remaining contestants and tonight, Barry Gibb is the mentor. Less than a half hour to go!

Melinda just performed. I thought it was pretty good but I'm with Simon, it wasn't that impressive. Apparently, they are doing 2 songs tonight so hopefully she'll wow me.

This is a critical juncture into the show, Historically, from what I've observed during the six year run on American Idol, there have been three phases with regard to the final 12 contestants each week:

12 to 10 contestants remaining: This is where the stragglers from the semifinal rounds get eliminated due to pitch problems, forgetting lyrics, making bad song selections for their vocal abilities, etc.; they are eliminated for mostly technical reasons.

9 to 5 contestants remaining: The singers who get eliminated here are usually eliminated for two reasons; they have decent vocals but are not memorable or noteworthy (i.e., they don't stand out), or they are exceptionally good in one genre (e.g.; rock - Constantine Maroulis, Gina Glocksen; R&B - Trenyce, Mandisa; country - Josh Gracin, Bucky Covington, Kellie Pickler; traditional pop standards - John Stevens {the red-headed kid}) but get torpedoed when they have to perform theme night in a genre they are not suited for. Occasionally, there are some controversial weeks when someone really good is prematurely eliminated (Jennifer Hudson), but for the most part they are not really capable of winning the competition.

The final 4: Here is where the competition gets really interesting. At this stage, the remaining contestants are all capable of winning the competition and becoming the next American Idol, but this is also where the supposed front runners can be eliminated due to complacency on the part of their fans (Tamyra Gray, Latoya London, Chris Daughtry). This is also where one bad vocal or song selection is magnified and can send someone packing. This is also when someone who was shaky at the beginning of the finals but improves dramatically throughout the competition makes a surprising surge (Kimberley Locke, Vonzell Solomon, Elliot Yamin). However, at this point most people have chosen a favorite contestant by this time and will vote for them all the way to elimination or the finals. If I am Melinda Doolittle, I would be really worried this week, because she may be going home if she has a slightly subpar performance.

Then there is what I call the Sanjaya factor. This is where one of the finalists who probably should have been eliminated early in the final 12 or even before then performs badly but gets the backlash vote either because enough people feel sorry for the judges piling up on their shortcomings or because they want to sabotage the competition (votefortheworst.com). This usually happens for the first few weeks but rarely affects the final 4. Sanjaya may have been the most obvious conetstant, but don't forget Scott Savol or Nikki McKibbin.

Now that I have seen tonight's performances, I think that Lakiska and Blake are in danger of being eliminated, but I would not necessarily be surprised if Melinda goes home tomorrow night.


[Edited 5/8/07 18:10pm]

This is a critical juncture into the show, Historically, from what I've observed during the six year run on American Idol, there have been three phases with regard to the final 12 contestants each week:

12 to 10 contestants remaining: This is where the stragglers from the semifinal rounds get eliminated due to pitch problems, forgetting lyrics, making bad song selections for their vocal abilities, etc.; they are eliminated for mostly technical reasons.

9 to 5 contestants remaining: The singers who get eliminated here are usually eliminated for two reasons; they have decent vocals but are not memorable or noteworthy (i.e., they don't stand out), or they are exceptionally good in one genre (e.g.; rock - Constantine Maroulis, Gina Glocksen; R&B - Trenyce, Mandisa; country - Josh Gracin, Bucky Covington, Kellie Pickler; traditional pop standards - John Stevens {the red-headed kid}) but get torpedoed when they have to perform theme night in a genre they are not suited for. Occasionally, there are some controversial weeks when someone really good is prematurely eliminated (Jennifer Hudson), but for the most part they are not really capable of winning the competition.

The final 4: Here is where the competition gets really interesting. At this stage, the remaining contestants are all capable of winning the competition and becoming the next American Idol, but this is also where the supposed front runners can be eliminated due to complacency on the part of their fans (Tamyra Gray, Latoya London, Chris Daughtry). This is also where one bad vocal or song selection is magnified and can send someone packing. This is also when someone who was shaky at the beginning of the finals but improves dramatically throughout the competition makes a surprising surge (Kimberley Locke, Vonzell Solomon, Elliot Yamin). However, at this point most people have chosen a favorite contestant by this time and will vote for them all the way to elimination or the finals. If I am Melinda Doolittle, I would be really worried this week, because she may be going home if she has a slightly subpar performance.

Then there is what I call the Sanjaya factor. This is where one of the finalists who probably should have been eliminated early in the final 12 or even before then performs badly but gets the backlash vote either because enough people feel sorry for the judges piling up on their shortcomings or because they want to sabotage the competition (votefortheworst.com). This usually happens for the first few weeks but rarely affects the final 4. Sanjaya may have been the most obvious conetstant, but don't forget Scott Savol or Nikki McKibbin.

Now that I have seen tonight's performances, I think that Lakiska and Blake are in danger of being eliminated, but I would not necessarily be surprised if Melinda goes home tomorrow night.


[Edited 5/8/07 18:10pm]

I missed it...

some news for idol fans.
I thinks its that gal with 8ths wonder rite? this is her new second album released last week

DEBUT 160 KIMBERLEY LOCKE / BASED ON A TRUE STORY 4,842

I'm sad to see LaKisha go But not surprised at all. She's had many, many, many bad weeks since starting out strong. Blake is hit or miss. He does have the occasional pretty good performance. LaKisha has been not good more often than not since the top 12.

RZR said:

That's part of why I'm not shocked by this. She's been quite inconsistant, especially in the last month.

purplecam said:

Agreed. I had a feeling that LaKisha was going to get voted off tonight, especially since last week, when two guys got the boot.

psychodelicide said:

They made the right choice.

In the end, it'll be down to Jordin and Blake... and Jordin will win.

June7 said:

Wow.....Melinda is CLEARLY the best singer in this competition but I think u may be correct. Blake may come out on top which would NOT surprise me. The kid does have some originality which I think as LACKED in all seasons of the show.

Graycap23 said:

I think, like Clay and Daughtry, Blake will have an incredible career after all this is done. He's gonna get a great record deal and do very well... he is an interesting talent.

Jordin will blow up, like Kelly and Carrie... it's all in the cards.

psychodelicide said:

They made the right choice.

In the end, it'll be down to Jordin and Blake... and Jordin will win.

June7 said:

They definitely made the right choice.

psychodelicide said:

i agree completely. Hi psychodelicide!!