US ELECTION 2004: THE FINAL DEBATE

John Kerry, left, and President Bush will begin their last debate Wednesday at 9 p.m.
Tim Sloan, AFP


Bush could use a strong debate Wednesday night to reassure Americans that he deserves four more years. Kerry, who has closed the stature gap by assuring doubters he looks presidential in two debates so far, hopes to continue the status quo.

The debate at Arizona State University climaxes an intense two weeks in which national polls have closed in Kerry's favor. President Bush went into the first debate in Miami Sept. 30 with an opportunity to solidify a modest but persistent lead in national polls that he forged last month. But Bush's mediocre first debate performance broadened the focus from whether Kerry could handle the presidency to include a re-examination of another four years under Bush.

Bush's pre-debate lead of 8 percentage points in the USA TODAY-CNN-Gallup Poll in late September has evaporated into a virtual tie with Kerry in the most recent survey, taken Oct. 9-10.

Kerry "has taken a huge step forward in the single most important criteria of a candidate for president, which is to demonstrate the capacity to hold the office," said Kerry strategist Tad Devine. "He has done that now in two debates."

Bush, who still has the considerable advantages of an incumbent president, is seen as a stronger leader in the war on terrorism in the most recent USA TODAY-CNN-Gallup Poll. But he also confronts a hostile issue environment similar to ones that derailed past incumbents. The economic news has not been as bullish as Bush had hoped for in October, and public opinion is increasingly unsettled on the war in Iraq.

So Bush will have to make a prospective argument in his final debate, asking voters to trust him based more on the prospect of more optimistic news in the future than on tangible evidence of strong advances on either Iraq or the economy.

Here are the arguments you are likely to hear out of Tempe in the final 90-minute debate:

• Bush must continue his "trust me" argument on Iraq, counting on the American people to believe, as he does, that the war on terrorism is an all-out war and that removing Saddam Hussein was an important goal — with or without weapons of mass destruction. Kerry gave Bush fresh arguments when, in an interview with The New York Times Magazine published Sunday, he appeared to question whether the war on terrorism was an all-out war.

"The American people understand the importance of obtaining victory in Iraq," said Republican National Chairman Ed Gillespie. "No one has said it was going to be easy, but the American people understand the importance of winning. They don't want to see us withdraw and (Iraq) become a haven, a stronghold for terrorists."

• Kerry will argue that his election, in and of itself, would be a breakthrough in world opinion toward the United States and open new doors for stronger alliances against terrorism.

• Expect Kerry to continue hammering on twin economic points: that Bush has driven the United States into record deficits by giving big tax cuts to the rich while presiding over a tepid economic recovery.

• Bush will argue that his tax cuts helped lessen the effects of a recession he inherited and cushion the U.S. economy from the aftereffects of the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks.

On the style front, two questions loom:

• Can Bush get the story off his facial expressions and swaggering demeanor? Ironically, the candidate who capitalized on Al Gore's histrionics in 2000 has found himself at the other end of the style spotlight. Bush was more reasoned and relaxed in the second debate in St. Louis Friday night than he was in Miami.

• Can Kerry parry Bush's contentions that he is a wishy-washy liberal? In St. Louis, Kerry tried to argue that labels mean nothing in this campaign. But in a close election, negative labels relentlessly draped around a candidate — such as what Republicans did to Michael Dukakis in 1988 — could mean the difference between victory and defeat.


recaps:

Debate themes take cues from country songs
By Chuck Raasch, GNS Political Writer

The three national debates so far have had distinct themes that could be wrapped around a famous country song. With nods to Johnny Paycheck, Tammy Wynette and Tracy Byrd, respectively, here are capsules of the first three debates:

Miami, Sept. 30: "Take This Job and Shove It"

President Bush talked so much about how hard the job was that it became an instant refrain for critique and parody. Sen. John Kerry, on the other hand, made a stronger-than-expected case for the job. Advantage: Kerry, because he was able to close the stature gap.

Cleveland, Oct. 5, the vice presidential debate: "Stand By Your Man"

Vice President Dick Cheney helped steady the GOP ticket by attacking Kerry's credibility and positions and portraying Bush as a fixture against terrorism. Sen. John Edwards, D-N.C., parried many of the attacks on his running mate, but one Cheney line stuck: If Kerry bowed to the political pressure of Howard Dean and changed his mind about the war in Iraq, how could he stand up to al-Qaeda? Advantage: Cheney, who appeared more seasoned than the youthful-looking Edwards and more reasoned than his critics painted him out to be.

St. Louis, Oct. 8: "I've Got What It Takes"

Bush stayed in contention with a better performance by portraying himself as a president willing to make tough decisions even if they were politically unpopular. He continued the attacks on Kerry as a liberal flip-flopper. But the Massachusetts senator gave as good as he got by appearing reasonable and well informed and by portraying Bush as too inflexible. A draw.

First!

Yeah! I always wanted to do that!

But, anyway, I have a feeling viewership levels will drop substantially in this debate.

I mean, I'm unemployed right now, watching CNN all day, and I've watched all three debates, and even I'm not sure if I'll tune in tomorrow or not!

The most telling sign about the debates so far is that the public's perception that Kerry won grows with time, despite Bush's attacks on his credibility. The GOP array of charges is getting very slim. Bush and Cheney have hurled everything at Kerry and Edwards -- that they are wishy washy, that they are the most liberal politicians in America, that they're so weak we'd be inviting terrorist attacks, etc, etc. Now they are reduced to clearly distorting Kerry's words on the "global test" and the "nuisance", even though they have said things very similar as recently as the eve of the GOP convention.

And Iraq/The War on Terror was their strong suit in the eyes of the electorate.

Now comes the economy -- not so much!

I expect Kerry to deliver a strong performance and he will walk away the winner of the debates. The question is more : will it be enough to win the election?

Three weeks is a long time in politics. Here in Canada, that is the usually the whole campaign, and fortunes can change quickly. All I know is that these debates are not helping Bush.

I wonder whether Bush will get mad again while under attack. Getting all red and making strange, angry faces. And that is a "presidential" figure? Right...

This man showed he is such a sad figure, especially in the first debate. He isn't able to listen to Kerry saying that he is wrong, that he made mistakes, or that he conned the American people. Nobody in his term as selected president ever critices him. Those who had the balls to do that, have all been fired.

But sure, he is so "decisive"... yeah right: decisive in never listening to anybody, let alone to reason.

But he is such a good "leader" in the war... yeah right: a great MISleader INTO war.

But he makes a better "commander in chief" than Kerry... yeah right: who would logically make a better one; the one who never fought in battle and dodged his duties as much as he could, or the one who did his tour of duty several times, commanded soldiers in battle and earned several medals?

It will be interesting to see how things go tonight.
Bush did not do very well on the first debate, as far as presentation anyway.
The second debate was better, but he needs to move Kerry into a position of answering the question of "What have you done for the last twenty years?"

If you really look at the way that he has voted, when he voted, it is not favorable for him.

Kerry will win this debate,the same way he won the other two.He's simply a better speaker than Bush,and he knows how to present his case forcefully and effectively (hey,he's a lawyer...lol).And since this debate will focus on domestic issues,Kerry has the advantage.He's gonna bring up the sky-high deficit,the health care crisis in America right now,the less-than-spectacular employment report,the Stem cell issue,and so on.Before these debates,Bush has been given a free ride by the media and he hasn't had to answer the tough questions about his record.Kerry is gonna put him on the offensive.

My worry is that Kerry's domestic voting record goes against what is claiming in these debates.

seekingtruth said:

DavidEye said:

seekingtruth said:

My worry is that Kerry's domestic voting record goes against what is claiming in these debates.

His voting record doesn't worry me in the least.He's a Democrat and he has consistently voted the way a Democrat would

seekingtruth said:

DavidEye said:

His voting record doesn't worry me in the least.He's a Democrat and he has consistently voted the way a Democrat would

But what he is currently saying is not consistent with these votes.

In education, Bush has established the No Child Left Behind. It is a good policy; does need developed further, but an overall good policy.

Bush just needs to break the dam in his brain. He has all the goods, but he can't bring them out the right way. He'd better get the flow for tonight.

EvilWhiteMale said:

Dancelot said:

EvilWhiteMale said:

Bush just needs to break the dam in his brain. He has all the goods, but he can't bring them out the right way. He'd better get the flow for tonight.

you wish! wanna take some bets?

Why is nobody asking the question of why, in the end, we pay close to 30% of our income into taxes of some sort and Kerry's tax records from last year showed that he paid 12.8%? If he is so against tax loopholes for the 'rich' then why is he using them?
I don't have a problem with it; I just think that if he is going out prophesing himself the champion of the people, he would not be doing what he says he detests.

One problem for Bush is that there is always so much bad news,and it's getting increasigly hard for him to ignore/downplay it.But voters aren't stupid,they watch the news.They know about that dismal jobs report...they know about the chief weapons inspector's report,where he confirmed that there were no weapons of mass destruction...they know about the massive deficit...they know that 3 more US soldiers were just killed yesterday...they know that there is a health care crisis in America right now,and that millions of people do not have insurance.

But Bush continues to live in denial,and he has no new plans to improve things during his second term.I think that if he were to just come out and say "Yes,we made some mistakes but you know what? I've got a new plan for the next four years and if you give me the chance,I'm gonna turn things around like you won't believe" ,he wouldn't have to struggle to hold onto his job.
[Edited 10/13/04 6:55am]

seekingtruth said:

sosgemini said:

seekingtruth said:

The only thing that he has been at all active in his twenty years is voting for tax increase: 98 times he voted for tax increase totalling 2.3 trillion.

Not saying that it is right or wrong, just interesting to me.

this is a karl rove talking point folks...republicans have been repeating this line all morning on the various shows...


what they forget to mention is that kerry has voted for double the amount of tax cuts...

further lies and distortions by the republicans that end up getting picked up and used by good intentioned people like seekingtruth..

seekingtruth said:

sosgemini said:

this is a karl rove talking point folks...republicans have been repeating this line all morning on the various shows...


what they forget to mention is that kerry has voted for double the amount of tax cuts...

further lies and distortions by the republicans that end up getting picked up and used by good intentioned people like seekingtruth..

Hey, I'm just glad you see my intentions are good.
On any of these points that I am not accurate, please let me know where and I am glad to check it out. As my tag suggests, I want to find the bottom line. There is crap on the right and left media networks, and all of us are subjected.

seekingtruth said:

EvilWhiteMale said:

Hey sosgemini! Yeah, it will be interesting to see what Dubya is going to do this time. Hes lost both debates. If I were him Id try to have Dick Cheney fill in for me!

.
[Edited 10/13/04 13:15pm]

sosgemini said:

seekingtruth said:

ooo it's almost time.

I heard Bush is really preparing this time. Hard to believe. but Bush didn't prepare that much for the second debate after getting his ass whooped on the first.

Nasty people are saying it's because he's not packin' this time. Too many people watching his back.

dreamfactory313 said:

If I were him Id try to have Dick Cheney fill in for me!

I hope everyone in the audience has a radio scanner with them so they can tune in to Rove FM .

ian said:

I hope everyone in the audience has a radio scanner with them so they can tune in to Rove FM .