The SHOO-INS

Madonna -Of course. When I suggested to a boomer friend that Mariah Carey (initially a '90s act) should be a shoo-in as well based on being one of the biggest-selling artists ever, on par with the Beatles and Elvis, he scoffed: "It's not the Pop Hall of Fame!" By that narrow standard, the Bee Gees, Michael Jackson, the Lovin' Spoonful, the Rascals and Dusty Springfield - inductees all - are questionable choices. Pop innovator Madonna? Who in mainstream music has been as controversial, cutting-edge and boundary-busting? Should enter in 2008.

R.E.M. -If no other independent, college-rock forebear is inducted from the decade that truly gave us the term "alternative rock," then the Georgian gang will have to represent for all others. Also a sure thing for the Class of '08.

Metallica -The Hall of Fame hates metal. It took voters more than a decade to properly honor Black Sabbath and the only other hard-rock titans inducted are Aerosmith, Led Zeppelin and AC/DC. But Metallica's pervasive influence cannot be denied. Another Class of '08 finisher.

Stevie Ray Vaughan -Enduring reputation as one of the greatest guitarists since Hendrix + premature death = another '08 classmate.

Luther Vandross -Enduring reputation as one of the greatest soul vocalists of his generation + premature death = a potential '07 entry. (He's been eligible since this year, actually.)

Whitney Houston - No one, not even Prince or Jacko, has been as influential a vocalist as the embattled Mrs. Bobby Brown. Her lagging later career and reputation for erratic behavior shouldn't cause her to be overlooked for a time. Should enter in 2010.

Janet Jackson -She's eligible as of next year, since her rightly ignored debut came out in 1982. It's more likely voters will induct the superstar who gave us the phrase "wardrobe malfunction" closer to 2011, marking when her breakout album "Control" took off.

Sting -He's already in with the Police, and it's debatable how much his solo work has "contributed to the development and perpetuation of rock 'n' roll," as the Hall's criteria dictates. But that is wide open to interpretation (see Miles' induction as a performer, not an early influence). And Mr. Sumner is beloved. Should also happen in 2010.

Run-D.M.C. -Considering hip-hop's current dominance, it's absurd to think that the Hall of Fame will wait until 2009 (this trio's first year of eligibility) to induct a pioneer in the genre. But with Grandmaster Flash being routinely passed over, that seems increasingly likely. Plus, Run, D.M.C. and the late Jam Master Jay were the first to bridge the gap between rap and rock.

Public Enemy -Once Run-D.M.C. goes in, the floodgates should come down and the best of the best will stream forth. First through: Chuck D., Flavor Flav and the Bomb Squad, still the most potent, fearsome, revolutionary rap outfit ever, with N.W.A and Boogie Down Productions not far behind. Eligible in 2012.


Very likely

Red Hot Chili Peppers -They may not get in on their first try; some voters may view them as more of a '90s act. But their punk-funk ways have had a lasting effect on modern rock, and their endurance through myriad pitfalls makes them a story to celebrate. Eligible in 2009.

Van Halen - Not considered a shoo-in simply because the group with three different vocalists hasn't appeared on a ballot, despite being eligible since 2003. Eddie Van Halen's contribution to guitar alone is reason to induct the band pronto.

Guns N' Roses -Had Axl Rose and the boys not burned out so quickly, you could bump these icons of hard-rock up to shoo-in status as well. They'll get in. Eventually.

Tina Turner -She's already in alongside Ike, but the empowerment of her post-"Private Dancer" period should win her solo induction sooner or later.

The Cure and the Smiths -Beyond the first British Invasion, the Hall hasn't been too fond of legendary acts from across the pond. These two have had the most lasting influence by far; they're as popular today as they ever were. That won't be ignored forever, even if the Cure has been eligible since 2004.

Beastie Boys -Movers and shakers, sure, but we'll hedge our bets on hip-hop. Will they get in alongside Public Enemy in 2012? Worse, will they get in instead of PE?

John Mellencamp -He should have gotten in this year. Figure he just missed securing 50 percent of the vote.

Dire Straits -Technically a '70s-born act, so the Hall may be waiting to put Mark Knopfler and mates in when they reach the 25th anniversary of "Brothers in Arms" in 2010.

Bon Jovi -Enough "rock experts" consider the band's namesake a hack to keep it out for eons. But eventually the tide will turn. His platinum albums and hair-metal influence will not be denied forever.

Hall & Oates -The biggest-selling duo of all-time is an inexplicable omission that has been eligible since 1997. But they were at their commercial zenith in the early '80s. Maybe when the thick of that era rolls around, the Hall will remember them.

The Pixies and the Replacements -The two candidates most likely to win the Velvet Underground vote. That is, the two most important bands of the '80s who, like the Velvets, sold next to nothing (compared to their mainsream counterparts) but who spawned hundreds of progeny.

Los Lobos -Long-running, venerable and held in high esteem by musicians, this East L.A. bunch, like roots-conscious songwriters such as John Hiatt and Graham Parker, deserves induction soon. When they do, they will bring the Latin-artist total to three, including Santana and Richie Valens.

Eurythmics -Of all the electro-related acts of the synth-heavy '80s, this duo is the most revered for a reason: Annie Lennox. While Duran Duran and its ilk were essentially kids' stuff, Eurythmics made grown-up synthetic soul for a plastic era. Eligible now.


Wild cards

INXS -A big arena attraction by the end of the '80s, and Michael Hutchence's premature death wins the sentimental vote. But will they be viewed as worthy of the Hall of Fame? As with Midnight Oil, an arguably worthier contender, being from Australia doesn't help.

Sade -One of a kind, and rarely imitated with any success. But her long gaps between recordings may be held against her.

The Go-Go's -Should get in to represent the scores of girl groups that never will. Limited output in their day doesn't help. Blondie getting in now does.

Duran Duran -Already eligible, the glossy kings of early MTV deserve recognition for helping ignite the music-video revolution. But voters may consider their music inconsequential. And they definitely shouldn't get in ahead of their godfathers in Roxy Music.

Depeche Mode -Mega-popular to this day, a huge influence on the electronica boom of the '90s and plenty of overcome turmoil to sell their saga. But, again, the music is often viewed as fluff.

Genesis or Peter Gabriel or Phil Collins -Given his unique approach and devotion to the proliferation of world music in the Western world, I bet Gabriel gets in around the time of the 25th anniversary of "So," in 2011, long before his first band or former drummer Collins gets the nod. Yes will get in before Genesis, actually. Or should, anyway.

X -The list of punk and new-wave greats that are eligible now or very soon is l-o-n-g. But more so than Echo and the Bunnymen or Siouxsie and the Banshees or Dead Kennedys or Devo or a horde of others, this L.A. quartet had critical acclaim on its side. And (some) critics vote. Once New York-centric voters pull their heads out of CBGB's storied past, they may look west and find X.

Lionel Richie - Easily dismissed as a pop craftsman only one shade removed from Barry Manilow, Richie nonetheless was huge in the '80s, and his "We Are the World" work wins him points.

Don Henley -He's already in with the Eagles, but as with Paul Simon, his solo work is arguably more socially relevant, if not as popular or influential.

Tracy Chapman -That striking debut remains unforgettable. Everything else she's done, however, is hard to remember.

George Michael - That striking (solo) debut remains unforgettable. Everything else he's done - besides getting arrested - is easy to forget.

Def Leppard -If it's taking Van Halen a number of years to even be considered, how much hope does the "Hysteria" crew really have?

k.d. lang -Easily one of the mightiest voices to emerge in the '80s. But is she mostly country, only somewhat pop, hardly rock at all? Those questions may keep voters from getting behind her.

Joy Division or New Order -Vastly influential on most forms of college-rock, indie-rock, alt-rock and what-not that has emerged since the mid-'80s, and New Order is one of few acts chiefly responsible for launching us into the techno '90s. But will voters consider them too obscure and too British?

Melissa Etheridge - Technically began in '88, but much bigger in the '90s. She'll get in, but later.

Will Smith - He's staggeringly popular, and he's won Grammys. So people may think he's a shoo-in. But his albums are mostly lame.

The Pixies and the Replacements -The two candidates most likely to win the Velvet Underground vote. That is, the two most important bands of the '80s who, like the Velvets, sold next to nothing (compared to their mainsream counterparts) but who spawned hundreds of progeny.

Eurythmics, The Cure, The Smiths and New Order/Joy Division BETTER get in.