Everybody seems to think they know what "Musicology" is going to do on the charts so let's get down to brass tacks: Post your Billboard Hot 100 prediction here and show everybody where you stand.

I'll start:

IMO, we're already seeing the proof of a solid run on the charts. Every dj who has been reported to have played it so far (with the exception of professional sourpuss Wendy Williams) was said to have praised the song after it aired.

I've been saying it from jump and I'm only more convinced now:

"Musicology" will hit the top 10.

NEXT...

Peace, David

I'm guessing 40-50 . It lacks a hook that is needed to be a huge hit. TGRES peaked in the 60s if I recall. This one has better promotion and a kick ass video so it may surprise some folks.

the billboard singles chart used to be fun to follow in the 80's and early 90's but now with some artist releasing retail singles and some not.. the chart is nothing more than a radio airplay crap shoot i will say the single makes it in the top 40

the more interesting chart will be the top album chart..you have to factor in the free cd giveaways and the download's available on npgmc,,but you also have to factor in Prince's recent popularity and he should get good promotion from Columbia so i am predicting the album debut is at around #6 in its 1st week

Mazerati said:

I agree, the singles chart means shit nowdays. I also think that the album chart is the 1 to really follow. I think it will hit top 10 4sure as well. People know about him and he has the tour to back the album. I personally think the single is quite a fonky little number and it has grown on me. In all honesty, I think what is even more important than any of this, is what he decides 2 do after this album- follow it up with another commercial one or go underground again. It will b interesting. The next one, could be even bigger in every way....

Depending on how hard Sony pushes this on radio: between 50th and 20th place. If the freebies @ concerts are singles, i'd say top 30 for sure (even though they don't count as heavy as airplay).
The album, mmm...luckily it doesn't take that many sales to get a high chart notation for a week or two. So i'll say top15 for one or two weeks. If they really give the album away @ concerts and they count those as sales each week, i'd say it will stay in the top 50 for quite a while (how many sales do you need for a top50 notation these days? 15000? less?).

Impossible for me to predict. I used to be good at this a few years back, but I have no idea how the US charts operate anymore. I think it'll sell better than Rave, but will stiff under the million mark (worldwide that is). I don't think however, that the critics will be too keen to praise it.

Actually, I have no fucking idea what the critics would think of it if I'm honest.

The single will peak at Number 19 on the pop charts,and Number 15 on the R&B charts.The song is good,but it just isn't catchy enough to become a huge Top 10 hit.

The album will debut at Number 23 on the album charts,but it will climb higher when a stronger second single is released.


just my predictions

livewire said:

Hey LiveWire, after u said; "Musicology" will hit the top 10."" you forgot to include this it will protect u from any violent orgers that tend to through things and fire ammunition.

Blue Jus lookin out for ya.

Unfortunately, I'm not sure Musicology will make the Billboard Hot 100 at all. The chart is based almost completely on airplay now, and I don't know that this song will be played enough to make it. Subsequent singles may make it, but I don't think Musicology has much pop radio appeal. Remember, TGRES had a big initial radio push from Arista and never made the airplay charts. It reached no.63 just because there was a cd single that sold well enough to get it onto the chart. I hope I'm wrong 'cause I'd love to see Prince have another top 40 hit. But I don't think this one will do it.

The album, however, stands a good chance of becoming his first top 10 album since 1995. And it may be the top new seller that week, as the only other albums of note coming out April 20th are new ones by Petey Pablo and Hanson(!). If we will all still buy it, even after getting our concert copies, 'Musicology' should be Prince's highest charting album in almost a decade.

Here's to hoping radio will warm to "Musicology" next week when it officially goes for adds!

Good lookin' out, Blue!

<--- livewire

>>how many sales do you need for a top50 notation these days? 15000? less?).<<

this week the # 50 album sold about 23,000

the album will likely debut in the #10 to #15 range, possibly a bit higher.

I would doubt the single would get higher than the mid-60's on the Hot 100.

It may do better on the Adult Top 40.

I agree - top 10 for sure

Just a thought,

did any of you think Nora Jones' album would be in its 6th week on the number one spot? I don't know about y'all but I can't hum one tune from that record and it is selling like hot cakes. I think the machine is behind Prince on this one and people are over the whole Britney/boy band bullshit. Just like Phil Collins said, "I can feel it coooooming in the air tonight. Oh lawd!"

This is Princes year and the single Musicology may not go to number one, but the Album Musicology definitely will.

10 Reasons Musicology album will go #1 (in no particular order):
1. People are sick of rap. (Even Jay Z figured that one out)
2. Prince is in the mainstream again.
3. He already has a hardcore fan base that have impact on first week sales
4. Nora Jones?
5. Street Cred with the Alicia Keys/Outkast endorsement + Jay-Z biting album titles
6. New found family-oriented Prince will jive well with FCC/Clear Channel's cleaning up airwaves crap.
7. Tour kicking off and will have built a months worth of steam by Album's release.
8. RRHOF got him in the minds of Tom Petty/Beatles/Traffic etc. fans
9. 'Musicology' single at radio
10. 'Purple Rain' Movie/Soundtrack anniversary.
and viola! 1984=2004

And for us UK peeps...

Radio2 have got behind the single and they seem to have as big an impact on the charts as Radio1 these days - look at Katie Melua, Jamie Cullum etc.

Of course we havent had the P exposure that y'all in the US have had - no chat show appearances, only a satellite TV showing of the Grammys and no showing of the RRHOF so far so there isnt quite the awareness that there is
elsewhere.

So on balance I'd optimistically say Top 20 single and Top 10 album.

its already platinum.

charts mean nothing in my world.

i predict more people hear it than any of your records.


3 DAYS TILL MUSICOLOGY.

MattUK said:

Yeah, but Jamie Cullum and Katie Melua have done well because their singles have had great melodies and have been picked up by a lot of people who bought the first Norah Jones album. That sort of Radio 2 listener. A lot of my parents' age that buy those artists' cds aren't going to touch Musicology with a barge pole.

But yes i think you're dead right. If Musicology (single) gets UK top 20, that'll be a result. But i can tell you this for nowt - the number 1 that same week will be "Fuck it" or whatever it's called by Eamon.

Album'll be in the UK 15-20 bracket if there's decent promotion i think.

i know we are all tripping about this lead off single, but i really think for all the love that's out there right now for Prince, it will easily make the TOP 10.

i think the album has a serious shot at debuting at #1...

The key really is the second single! and of course we can't debate that until Monday.

but it's the follow-up in my opinion that will determine whether this album becomes a big hit.

I think it will be in the Top 20

I think that both the song and the single have a good shot at going to the top 20 if not the top 10. He picked a great label (Sony) to work with so I won't be surprised if Musicology is in the top 10 or even number 1. We'll have to wait and see but I'm very optimistic that Prince will be big in 2004 and it's about time.

livewire said:

Dude, you need to define "top 10". If you are talking the pop charts there is no way in hell Musicology is going to be a top ten hit. Think about it this way these are Prince's prior top ten pop hits as best as I can remember them, I probably forgot a few

I Wanna Be Your Lover
Little Red Corvette
When Doves Cry
Let's Go Crazy
Purple Rain
I Would Die 4 U
Raspberry Beret
Pop Life
Kiss
Sign 'O' The Times
U Got The Look
I Could Never Take The Place Of Your Man
Alphabet St.
Batdance
Thieves In The Temple
Cream
Diamonds And Pearls
7
The Most Beautiful Girl In The World

Musicology?

I don't think so!

I like the song although it's not what I'd call 2004 single material. But Prince is riding high on a wave of publicity and goodwill now that will propel him at least into the top 20, if not the top 10.

Top 5 Album. Top 20 first single to set the stage for possibly a "more mainstream" Top 10 second single.

Top 10 Album
Top 10 Single

Single - First week #18 tops out at #10

Album - #4

2004
1984

Spanky said:

Many good points, but some I have issue with:
1. Rap albums continue to make the top 10. Rap or Hip-hop continue to dominate the singles chart. "Urban" radio has no shortage of listeners.
3. His hardcore fan base did nothing for TRC or N.E.W.S. in terms of the charts because a) many were club members who bought or downloaded them there and b) the only hardcores left to purchase in stores were those who didn't want to pay for the club. Myself included,
7. Several hundred thousand people will already own the new cd before retail gets it due to the tour, the screening, the downloads on the NPGMC etc. And some fans who know they get one free if they're going to a concert after the street date will wait for the show to pick up thier copy.
9. Still unclear if this will be a major hit.
10. Purple Rain dvd hits 3 months after Musicology comes out, in and of itself highly unlikely to boost sales if they are flagging. More likely to boost sales of the PR soundtrack.

Still, the other points are really good. Personally, I'd love to see P back at the top of the charts, but the song seems weak. But if there is a lot of boomer interest, and a good second single...there's an outside chance of going platinum. But I sure wouldn't bet on it.

it will do well because sony are throwing serious cash at this release and paying radio and tv to play it. thats why its gonna do well. same thing hapened with emancipation to a degree, in the Uk at least, i was hearing songs from it on all types of stations.

ask SONY.

If they want to 'buy' it's sucsess, it could be number 1. honest. no offence but charts are so easily manipulated. If sony choose to sell to stores at 45% discount or more (like Arista and Alicia Keys), he will literally be No.1 on Billboard.

If sony choose to let the record survive on it's own merits. i think it will be a moderate first 4 weeks, then dissapear without trace.

I'm in the UK and the singles market is DEAD. it'll easily make Top 20 here. and the album will probably be around 9 - 13.

I think that Purple Rain will sell over half as much this year, IF there's any sort of promoted re-issue....

eugnj420 said:

To note:
1. Rap is still hot, no doubt, but it isn't ruling the airwaves like early 90's and 96-99. THere is more room for other genres.
3. The hardcore fanbase means a strong opening week. Plus however many more people will buy it from P being in this newfound spotlite.
7. You are right on with this one. I hope the free CD he is talking about is a single with some remixes. If he gives the CD away on his tour, of course nobody but maybe (and I don't see this happeining either) his hardcore fanbase will buy another version of it.
9. Radio is spinning it, though not a lot, I guess we'll see the mainstream reaction. I hadn't heard the studio version until this morning so all I had to go on was the Jay Leno performance, and I must admit the song is much tighter on the video. IT doesn't sound as James Brown-y. Not as much as the work anyway. I predict a peak at number 3-5 for the single.
10. IF the second single is out by then and the concert has hit a lot of towns it may help with the PR thing, but we'll see. I think it will definetly go platinum, but either over the course of a year or over the course of a month remains 2 b seen.
Peace.

Prince is good at breaking rules when he is given mass airplay. I say it charts very high maybe even No. 1.