Europe feels heat, but is it warming? debate over whether humans make Earth warmer

Aug. 8 -- Europeans and foreign tourists taking in the sights are looking for relief from a heat spell expected to last into September. NBC's Patricia Sabga reports from London.

By Robin Pomeroy

BRUSSELS, Aug. 8 — One hot summer does not prove that the planet is warming, but expect a lot more extremes like the heat wave now hitting Europe if the direst climate change predictions come true, weather experts say.

World Meteorological Organization “WE CANNOT say for sure that this is global warming, but the growing frequency of extreme weather events ties in with predictions of global warming,” said Asher Minns, a scientist at Britain’s Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research.
While European holidaymakers bask in one of the hottest Augusts on record, extreme heat and forest fires have killed dozens of people across Europe and drought has hit farmers from the Atlantic to Siberia.
Portugal, the European country worst hit by fires, has declared a state of emergency. Parts of Canada and Russia are also suffering wildfires in unusually hot and dry conditions.
Last summer Germany was hit by similarly devastating floods. Some experts believe that was also an example of the “extreme weather events” that will become more frequent as the so-called greenhouse effect pushes up global temperatures.

U.N. GROUP’S VIEW
According to the U.N.-sponsored Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), both drought and floods could be more common due to global warming.
In its last major study, the IPPC said emissions of the gases that trap heat in the atmosphere, causing the greenhouse effect, could raise average earth temperatures by between 1.4 and 5.8 degrees Celsius in the next 100 years.
“As the global temperatures continue to warm due to climate change, the number and intensity of extreme events might increase,” the World Meteorological Organization said in a statement last month.
Britain’s weather forecaster, the Met Office, concurs. “We cannot directly attribute this one event to climate change... (but) all our models have suggested that this type of event will happen more frequently,” said spokesman Andy Yeatman.
Its computer models have suggested that record hot summers such as August 1995, which used to occur once per century, could happen as often as twice every three years by 2100.

Solar input
A third of the sun's energy is reflected back into space after hitting Earth's upper atmosphere, but two thirds gets through, driving Earth's weather engine.
The atmosphere
A delicate balance of gases gives Earth its livable temperature. Known as "greenhouse" gases because they trap heat inside the atmosphere, they send a portion of that heat back to Earth's surface. The gases include water vapor, carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide.
The oceans
Covering two thirds of Earth, oceans are the key source of moisture in the air and they store heat efficiently, transporting it thousands of miles. The oceans and marine life also consume huge amounts of carbon dioxide.
The water cycle
Higher air temperatures can increase water evaporation and melting of ice. And while water vapor is the most potent greenhouse gas, clouds also affect evaporation, creating a cooling effect.
Clouds
They both cool Earth by reflecting solar energy and warm Earth by trapping heat being radiated up from the surface.
Ice and snow
The whiteness of ice and snow reflects heat out, cooling the planet. When ice melts into the sea, that drives heat from the ocean.
Land surface
Mountain ranges can block clouds, creating ?dry? shadows downwind. Sloping land allows more water runoff, leaving the land and air drier. A tropical forest will soak up carbon dioxide, but once cleared for cattle ranching, the same land becomes a source of methane, a greenhouse gas.
Human influences
Humans might be magnifying warming by adding to the greenhouse gases naturally present in the atmosphere. Fuel use is the chief cause of rising carbon dioxide levels. On the other hand, humans create temporary, localized cooling effects through the use of aerosols, such as smoke and sulfates from industry, which reflect sunlight away from Earth.

FLAGS OF CAUTION
But WMO meteorologists, who say it is impossible to forecast weather more than 10 days in advance, warn against jumping to the firm conclusion that we are witnessing global warming.
“We don’t have enough evidence to say that yet,” said the WMO’s world climate program director Ken Davidson. “We need more evidence than one or two events.”
The picture is likely to become clearer by 2007 when the IPCC produces its fourth assessment of the cause and likely effects of climate change, he said.
And some commentators remain skeptical that human-induced climate change will happen at all, let alone now.
Bill O’Keefe, president of the Washington-based Marshall Institute, said there was no proof that the increase of 0.6 degree Celsius in the Earth’s temperature in the last century will lead to more extreme weather events.
“For at least 15 years, there has been a drum-beat about significant climate change and that human activities and fossil fuel use are causing it and we have an impending apocalypse,” O’Keefe said. And yet in the 1970s, he added, the U.S. National Academy of Sciences “forecast a new ice age.”
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Climate concerns by region
Scientists working with the U.N. climate change program in 2001 reported on potential impacts worldwide. Click on a region for details.
AfricaAsiaAustralia & New ZealandEuropeLatin AmericaNorth AmericaNorth, south polesSmall island states
•Adaptive capacity of humans is low and vulnerability high.
•Food security would diminish if, as projected, grain yields decrease.
•Major rivers are highly sensitive to climate variation. Average runoff and water availability would decrease in Mediterranean and southern countries of Africa.
•The range of infectious diseases would spread.
•Desertification would be exacerbated.
•Increases in droughts, floods and other extreme events would add to stresses on water and health.
•Significant extinctions of species are projected.
•Coastal settlements would be adversely impacted by sea level rise.
•Adaptive capacity of humans is low and vulnerability high in Asia's developing countries.
•Arid, tropical and temperate areas face reduced food security if agricultural productivity falls. Northern areas would see more agricultural opportunities.
•Runoff and water supplies would decrease in arid and semi-arid Asia, but increase in northern Asia.
•Health would be threatened by possible increased exposure to vector-borne diseases in some areas.
•Sea level rise and more tropical cyclones as well as rainfall would displace tens of millions of people.
•Adaptive capacity of humans is high except for some like indigenous groups, who face high vulnerability.
•Water is likely to be a key issue due to projected drying trends.
•Increases in the intensity of heavy rains and cyclones would raise the risks to life and property.
•Coral reefs, wetlands and alpine systems are among the habitat particularly vulnerable to climate change.

•Adaptive capacity for humans is high, though southern Europe is more vulnerable than the north.
•Summer runoff, water supply and soil moisture are likely to decrease in the already drought-prone south.
•Flood hazards will increase across Europe, with coastal areas also seeing increased erosion and loss of wetlands.
•Agriculture will expand in northern Europe, decrease in the south.
•Some species would be threatened by a shift north of certain habitats.
•Heat waves might change summer destinations, less reliable snow might impact winter tourism.

•Adaptive capacity of humans is low and vulnerability high.
•Retreat of glaciers along the Andes would reduce water supply in some areas.
•Floods and droughts would become more frequent, degrading water quality in some areas.
•The range of vector-borne diseases would spread south and to higher elevations.
•Crop yields would decrease in many areas, subsistence farming in northeastern Brazil would be threatened.
•Mangrove ecosystems would be harmed by sea level rise.
•The rate of biodiversity loss would increase.

•Adaptive capacity of humans is high but indigenous groups are more vulnerable.
•Farming output in the U.S. Great Plains and Canada's Prairies would decline, while some areas would benefit.
•Western watersheds that rely on snowmelt would peak earlier in spring, possibly reducing summer flows.
•Prairie wetlands, alpine tundra and cold water ecosystems would be at risk and effective adaptation is unlikely.
•Sea level rise would cause erosion, flooding, loss of wetlands and storm surges, especially in Florida and much of the Atlantic Coast.

•Indigenous peoples have little capacity and few options for adaptation.
•Climate change here is expected to be among the greatest of any region on Earth, and would last centuries.
•Species might begin to migrate.

•Adaptive capacity of humans is generally low and vulnerability high.
•These are among the countries likely to be most seriously impacted.
•Coral reefs would see higher die-offs, affecting reef fisheries as well.
•Rising seas would affect tourism and local water supplies.
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UNCERTAINTY AND POLICY

Such skepticism has influenced U.S. climate policy, which split from the rest of the world when President Bush pulled out of the Kyoto Protocol on reducing greenhouse gases shortly after taking office in 2001.
While European governments are trying to work out how to comply with their Kyoto commitment to cut emissions, the Bush administration is putting its efforts into reducing the uncertainties that remain in climate science.
Environmentalists say that could leave it too late to take action to prevent global warming. Sufficient evidence is there to start cutting emissions now, they argue.

Weather experts say it will take time to be sure global warming will happen as predicted. “This is not a question like the one we faced 1,000 years ago — is the world flat or not,” said the WMO’s Davidson. “That could be proven by people sailing around the world.
“We understand the greenhouse effect. We understand that man is assisting in trapping heat in the atmosphere. But we cannot understand all the effects of this yet.”

global edit.....
[This message was edited Sun Aug 10 12:22:12 PDT 2003 by july]

Dunt get me started, Lucy...

I've actively avoided threads/discussions like these because I get sucked into them for days...lol (I've avoided the P&R forum altogether...heh)...

Byron said:

Umm okay...

nice signature july

I did a statistical study in spring analyzing the temperature data in Prague, and it revealed that global warming was NOT evident there.