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Reply #120 posted 07/28/21 2:02am

TweetyV6

avatar

IanRG said:

TweetyV6 said:


Bla-di-bla-di-bla Bullshit. Again.

There are over 40 studies now that claim that the NPI did not have any effect.
Look at page 38 of this study
No correlation between stringency index and deaths. None.

If you'd be open for it and 'willing to do the work', you could easily find out for yourself.

Just take any graph of the progress of infections starting in feb 2020 to now, remove the labels on th x-axis and try to point out when restrictions have become (in)active.

You will not see any significant disruption in the progress of the graphs.

.

I have already seen the graphs that show this is your imagination and that you are not interested in doing any work but seeking to find anything, no matter how unbelievable to support your political agenda and bias- just as you allow yourself to ignore the failings of basic maths with your other link - The USA has not had 85 million more people have Covid 19 that its total population.

.

I have already seen this paper - and it is too soon, too inconclusive, is only a working paper and it only argues for the need for more work, nothing more.

.

I have already addressed the turning point when you made your astrological claims by arguing against reality that the flu season follows after the winter solstice. The turning point in the effectiveness of the combating covid is shown both in how the first peak was reversed prior to your imagined post solitice peak and in how these processes prevented the Australian 2020 flu season despite the claim made on page 40. The average flu season in Australia has a slow increase from low at the end of Jan through to the beginning of May. It has a geometric increase from May to mid August, plateaus then rapidly falls Sept to Oct and has a slow decline to end of Jan. The Covid management processes meant the peak of the 2020 flu seaon was March 2020. From then the flu season NEVER had the May to Aug acceleration and spent most of October, Nov and Dec below the average of the end of Jan low. It aligns perfectly with the introduction of the processes to reduce the impact of the pandemic.

.

Facts beat spin


You're so clueless.
Read Robert Hope-Simpsons book called: The Transmission of Epidemic Influenza


His career-long interest in the manner of transmission of the influenza virus was first stirred by the great epidemic of 1932–33, the year in which he entered general practice. It culminated in a book, published in 1992, which questioned the theory of person-to-person transmission being enough to explain the simultaneous appearance of influenza in places far apart. His initial hypothesis proposed that the cause of influenza epidemics during winter may be connected to a seasonal influence.[2] His later research suggested that the correlation may be due in part to a lack of vitamin D during the wintertime, after documenting that influenza A epidemics in temperate latitudes peak in the month following the winter solstice.[3][4] His findings were based not only on observation in his practice, but also on extensive historical research into past epidemics.

The man of science has learned to believe in justification, not by faith, but by verification - Thomas Henry Huxley
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Reply #121 posted 07/28/21 2:06am

CherryMoon57

avatar

IanRG said:

CherryMoon57 said:

I just found this article below (from 2018) and it made me think. A lot. In the space of the winter 2018 season alone, the flu had caused 50,100 excess deaths in the UK. We've had 129,000 deaths in about 2 years with Covid and look what's happened.

So much has changed in terms of views and what has become acceptable. Scary to think most of our freedom has now been taken from us and the majority is not even batting an eyelid (whatever happened to the 'my body, my choice' slogan). We used to have choices and now we don't. And please don't tell me Covid is worse than the flu. I had the flu once and I struggled to breathe for a month. The first and only time I ever had asthma in my whole life in fact.

'Economists said the figures show the “grim reality” of the flu outbreak, and are particularly concerning as the ONS revealed earlier in 2018 that decades of improvements in life expectancy “ground to a halt” this year.

“This follows some other recent winters when seasonal deaths have been high,” said Dr Veena Raleigh, senior fellow at the King’s Fund. “With an ageing population, the worry is that this could be the start of a trend of periodically high winter deaths.”

“The evidence suggests that stalling life expectancy is due to several factors, including flu-related deaths and a slowdown in improvements in mortality from diseases such as heart attack and stroke.

“National agencies have so far been slow to respond to these disturbing recent trends. Public Health England has been commissioned to investigate the slowdown in life expectancy and it is imperative that their findings are acted upon.” ' https://www.independent.c...60496.html


20181130-uk-winter-deaths-indy.png?width=640&auto=webp&quality=75

[Edited 7/27/21 16:43pm]

.

The difference between a normal cold and flu season with little or no processes to stop the spread (short of the annual flu shot some may have) and the end results after all the processes to manage a pandemic needs to be considered. If we managed the outbreak just like the annual flu season, the deaths would likely have been very significantly higher.


Don't take my words for it, listen to what scientists have to say about this. And their verdict is that...

'It remains to be seen whether the effect of COVID-19 on deaths remains greater than that of influenza.' https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid...99_article

Life Matters
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Reply #122 posted 07/28/21 2:15am

CherryMoon57

avatar

PennyPurple said:

Glad your country has only had 129K deaths due to Covid. We've had 611+K here in the US


What freedom have you lost?

CherryMoon57 said:

I just found this article below (from 2018) and it made me think. A lot. In the space of the winter 2018 season alone, the flu had caused 50,100 excess deaths in the UK. We've had 129,000 deaths in about 2 years with Covid and look what's happened.

So much has changed in terms of views and what has become acceptable. Scary to think most of our freedom has now been taken from us and the majority is not even batting an eyelid (whatever happened to the 'my body, my choice' slogan). We used to have choices and now we don't. And please don't tell me Covid is worse than the flu. I had the flu once and I struggled to breathe for a month. The first and only time I ever had asthma in my whole life in fact.

'Economists said the figures show the “grim reality” of the flu outbreak, and are particularly concerning as the ONS revealed earlier in 2018 that decades of improvements in life expectancy “ground to a halt” this year.

“This follows some other recent winters when seasonal deaths have been high,” said Dr Veena Raleigh, senior fellow at the King’s Fund. “With an ageing population, the worry is that this could be the start of a trend of periodically high winter deaths.”

“The evidence suggests that stalling life expectancy is due to several factors, including flu-related deaths and a slowdown in improvements in mortality from diseases such as heart attack and stroke.

“National agencies have so far been slow to respond to these disturbing recent trends. Public Health England has been commissioned to investigate the slowdown in life expectancy and it is imperative that their findings are acted upon.” ' https://www.independent.c...60496.html


20181130-uk-winter-deaths-indy.png?width=640&auto=webp&quality=75

[Edited 7/27/21 16:43pm]


What freedoms have I lost? Are you kidding me? Having a choice is a freedom. In France they are already excluding people from many parts of society - and this will soon be applied everywhere - just because they are not fully vaccinated. People who used to talk about things like this in the past were called conspirationists. Now it is real and no one minds. What has happened to people's minds?

Life Matters
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Reply #123 posted 07/28/21 2:21am

IanRG

TweetyV6 said:

IanRG said:

.

No, what is funny is that you keep on making the same basic mathematical error and side with Strive when he made his with the lie that it is others who deaf and blind to facts.

.

If the CFR for the USA was only 0.78% for Covid 19, then this means with 627,230 deaths from covid 19 so far, that the USA has had more than 80 million confirmed cases, not 35 million.

.

If you are referring to the figures since Feb 2021, then the 172,489 deaths since then would mean that there has been 22 million confirmed cases since February this year, not 8,339,725.

.

And it gets worse: If the IFR is 0.15%, this means that out of a total population of 333 million, 418 million of these people have had Covid 19. It is basic maths 627,230 is 0.15% of 418,153,333.

.

You need to check your figures against reality, not the political line you have been pushing here since the methods to manage a pandemic inconvenienced you.


As per 27 july, the 7 day rolling average CFR for the US is up to 0.94%
www.ourworldindata.org

Go educate yourself.

.

I note you still cannot see your error in basic maths.

.

Your deflection is another beginner's error by someone who knows little about statistics.

.

You are comparing different datasets by confusing time periods. By restricting this to less than a full cycle of the disease you fail to realise that the people that died in this seven day period did not catch covid in the same seven day period. Apples and oranges.

.

The Reff for the past month has been positive for every day but 3 in the last 24 days. This means it is increasing - Indeed, the 7 day average has increased by 3.6 times in this time period. How long it can take before you die means you need to compare new cases identified with when these people with these cases may die. Or you look at over a wider that covers many disease cycles. Either method shows a CFR of 2% or more. Your silly method will mean that once the new cases are past the latest peak but the infected people caught it at the peak will result in an overstated CFR.

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Reply #124 posted 07/28/21 2:24am

CherryMoon57

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Another thing I have noticed is how during the vaccination campaign the number of Covid deaths was put at the forefront of the news. Every single increase was highlighted. Now that the big majority has been vaccinated, and it seems important to justify the vaccinations' worth, the news are emphasizing the sudden drop in cases and downplaying the fact that deaths are still currently increasing fast (despite that drop in cases). Plus the drop in cases seems to have actually coincided with the schools' Summer holiday: kids were regularly tested at school, and now they are not, many cases could go unreported.

Life Matters
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Reply #125 posted 07/28/21 2:32am

CherryMoon57

avatar

IanRG said:

TweetyV6 said:


As per 27 july, the 7 day rolling average CFR for the US is up to 0.94%
www.ourworldindata.org

Go educate yourself.

.

You are comparing different datasets by confusing time periods. By restricting this to less than a full cycle of the disease you fail to realise that the people that died in this seven day period did not catch covid in the same seven day period. Apples and oranges.

.


The BBC government is very good at comparing apples and oranges, but no one seems to mind that much:

_119621266_hospital_admissions_facet_27jul-nc.png

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51768274

[Edited 7/28/21 2:34am]

Life Matters
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Reply #126 posted 07/28/21 2:39am

IanRG

TweetyV6 said:

IanRG said:

.

I have already seen the graphs that show this is your imagination and that you are not interested in doing any work but seeking to find anything, no matter how unbelievable to support your political agenda and bias- just as you allow yourself to ignore the failings of basic maths with your other link - The USA has not had 85 million more people have Covid 19 that its total population.

.

I have already seen this paper - and it is too soon, too inconclusive, is only a working paper and it only argues for the need for more work, nothing more.

.

I have already addressed the turning point when you made your astrological claims by arguing against reality that the flu season follows after the winter solstice. The turning point in the effectiveness of the combating covid is shown both in how the first peak was reversed prior to your imagined post solitice peak and in how these processes prevented the Australian 2020 flu season despite the claim made on page 40. The average flu season in Australia has a slow increase from low at the end of Jan through to the beginning of May. It has a geometric increase from May to mid August, plateaus then rapidly falls Sept to Oct and has a slow decline to end of Jan. The Covid management processes meant the peak of the 2020 flu seaon was March 2020. From then the flu season NEVER had the May to Aug acceleration and spent most of October, Nov and Dec below the average of the end of Jan low. It aligns perfectly with the introduction of the processes to reduce the impact of the pandemic.

.

Facts beat spin


You're so clueless.
Read Robert Hope-Simpsons book called: The Transmission of Epidemic Influenza


His career-long interest in the manner of transmission of the influenza virus was first stirred by the great epidemic of 1932–33, the year in which he entered general practice. It culminated in a book, published in 1992, which questioned the theory of person-to-person transmission being enough to explain the simultaneous appearance of influenza in places far apart. His initial hypothesis proposed that the cause of influenza epidemics during winter may be connected to a seasonal influence.[2] His later research suggested that the correlation may be due in part to a lack of vitamin D during the wintertime, after documenting that influenza A epidemics in temperate latitudes peak in the month following the winter solstice.[3][4] His findings were based not only on observation in his practice, but also on extensive historical research into past epidemics.

.

Fact beat spin. None of this addresses that I have pointed out clear data that demonstrates the direct effect of pandemic management processes both on Covid and on the flu despite your claim that such data cannot be found.

.

We not only know how the flu gets to Australia but how it absolutely spreads person-to-person as measured by the K score. This is a verifiable fact that sets the parameters for each seasonal version of the Flu vaccine. This beats a cut and paste from a book because it is not just a theory but it is successful in controlling the flu each year. The pandemic management practices broke the pattern, not just as statistical variation but completely. These covid management process have been successful in Australia in stoppoing the flu season and in limiting Covid spread - indeed the failure points are all traceable to specific person-to-person transmissions. For example the current outbreak in Sydney started with one Air crew chaffuer not wearing a mask in the car or afterwards.

.

It is silly to think that others who have done the same research but not just for a book but as part of real, actual and successful annual vaccine and management process are clueless - Just because their findings are against what you need to believe to support your political agenda and bias.

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Reply #127 posted 07/28/21 2:55am

IanRG

CherryMoon57 said:

IanRG said:

.

The difference between a normal cold and flu season with little or no processes to stop the spread (short of the annual flu shot some may have) and the end results after all the processes to manage a pandemic needs to be considered. If we managed the outbreak just like the annual flu season, the deaths would likely have been very significantly higher.


Don't take my words for it, listen to what scientists have to say about this. And their verdict is that...

'It remains to be seen whether the effect of COVID-19 on deaths remains greater than that of influenza.' https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid...99_article

.

You have taken a sentence out of context. "COVID-19 might have a long-lasting effect, potentially becoming endemic with yearly recurrence(s), similar to influenza. It remains to be seen whether the effect of COVID-19 on deaths remains greater than that of influenza. Monitoring of excess deaths can provide input for public health and economic decisions. This monitoring also remains essential for monitoring the effects of any other events and outbreaks and for detecting any unexpected and unforeseen increases in deaths." This is about unknowable outcomes IF Covid becomes endemic.

.

I won't take you word for it because the paper states:

.

"In addition, the measures implemented to control the COVID-19 epidemic presumably prevented many infections (24) and deaths. Thus, the effect of COVID-19 on deaths is potentially much higher than that of seasonal influenza. The joint effect of influenza and COVID-19 epidemics on deaths is not yet known because they hardly overlapped during the past influenza season. To avoid miscomparisons (25), we compared excess deaths from influenza and COVID-19 by using the same data (all-cause deaths) and the same statistical method."

.

"Additional study is required to better estimate the number of COVID-19 deaths averted in the Netherlands."

.

"Although COVID-19 incidence has greatly decreased because of social distancing and lockdown measures, measures are still in place to reduce virus transmission."

.

"Influenza vaccination is available in the Netherlands for risk groups (persons >60 years of age or those with underlying conditions) to reduce severe sequelae of influenza infections, but coverage is rather low (51% in 2019) (3336). Vaccination is only partially effective, and the effectiveness varies by season because of virus strain variability and varying vaccine match (Table 2). COVID-19 vaccination is not yet available. Social distancing and lockdown measures have had a large effect on decreasing the epidemic and thus also COVID-19 deaths. If some or all of these measures stay in place, they might likewise decrease influenza virus circulation and thus severe sequelae of infection in the upcoming winter season, as observed in Hong Kong, China, at the beginning of the COVID-19 epidemic (37)."


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Reply #128 posted 07/28/21 3:41am

TweetyV6

avatar

IanRG said:

TweetyV6 said:


As per 27 july, the 7 day rolling average CFR for the US is up to 0.94%
www.ourworldindata.org

Go educate yourself.

.

I note you still cannot see your error in basic maths.

.

Your deflection is another beginner's error by someone who knows little about statistics.

.

You are comparing different datasets by confusing time periods. By restricting this to less than a full cycle of the disease you fail to realise that the people that died in this seven day period did not catch covid in the same seven day period. Apples and oranges.


HAHAHAHAHA... Nitwit.

It's a 7 day average of the calculation wich consideres the 14 days offset.
You haven't got the slightes clue about what you're talking about.

And it will change daily as there will be more test taken, relatively more or less positives and more or less deaths.

Apples & oranges my ass.


The data is skewed anyway.
In the beginning far less test were taken, meaning that only a fraction of the infections have been counted as infection.

As I said from day one: data integrity is close to 0

If you'd perform a proper MSA (Measurement System Analysis)on this whole issue, you'd come to no other conclusion that the measurment method and data(collection) sucks and therefore the whole system is worthless.

But hey, since you know all, you probably knew that.
In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if you've done a MSA on the method of measuring the infections and deaths.

Or don't you have any clue about MSA?

[Edited 7/28/21 3:42am]

The man of science has learned to believe in justification, not by faith, but by verification - Thomas Henry Huxley
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Reply #129 posted 07/28/21 3:49am

TweetyV6

avatar

IanRG said:

.

It is silly to think that others who have done the same research but not just for a book


Hahahaha, you keep on disqualifying yourself.

Edgar Hope Simpson performed ground breaking work in understanding how flu virusses spread.

"Hope-Simpson's practice was used as a model in 1994 when the RCGP introduced research practices, which later became NHS research and development general practices."

The man of science has learned to believe in justification, not by faith, but by verification - Thomas Henry Huxley
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Reply #130 posted 07/28/21 4:22am

IanRG

TweetyV6 said:

IanRG said:

.

I note you still cannot see your error in basic maths.

.

Your deflection is another beginner's error by someone who knows little about statistics.

.

You are comparing different datasets by confusing time periods. By restricting this to less than a full cycle of the disease you fail to realise that the people that died in this seven day period did not catch covid in the same seven day period. Apples and oranges.

.

The Reff for the past month has been positive for every day but 3 in the last 24 days. This means it is increasing - Indeed, the 7 day average has increased by 3.6 times in this time period. How long it can take before you die means you need to compare new cases identified with when these people with these cases may die. Or you look at over a wider that covers many disease cycles. Either method shows a CFR of 2% or more. Your silly method will mean that once the new cases are past the latest peak but the infected people caught it at the peak will result in an overstated CFR.


HAHAHAHAHA... Nitwit.

It's a 7 day average of the calculation wich consideres the 14 days offset.
You haven't got the slightes clue about what you're talking about.

And it will change daily as there will be more test taken, relatively more or less positives and more or less deaths.

Apples & oranges my ass.


The data is skewed anyway.
In the beginning far less test were taken, meaning that only a fraction of the infections have been counted as infection.

As I said from day one: data integrity is close to 0

If you'd perform a proper MSA (Measurement System Analysis)on this whole issue, you'd come to no other conclusion that the measurment method and data(collection) sucks and therefore the whole system is worthless.

But hey, since you know all, you probably knew that.
In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if you've done a MSA on the method of measuring the infections and deaths.

Or don't you have any clue about MSA?

[Edited 7/28/21 3:42am]

.

I note you still cannot address that you quoted figures that mean that up to 85 million more people than there are in the USA have had Covid in the USA.

.

I know you have NOT done or understood an MSA on a figure that produces results that mean the total number of people that have had covid 19 in the USA is more than the total population of the USA.

.

Your data integrity has consistently been zero, whether it is about climate change or covid.

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Reply #131 posted 07/28/21 4:40am

PennyPurple

avatar

Strive said:

If you put a covid patient on a vent, you are basically murdering them. It's not a respiratory disease, it's a blood vessel disease.

You think you could look at the numbers of 70% of patients dying when they are placed on one but that would require critical thinking.

That's a damn lie. It is most certainly respiratory.

OMG what are you going to come up with next?

U.S.A.
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Reply #132 posted 07/28/21 4:42am

PennyPurple

avatar

jjhunsecker said:

IanRG said:

.

Agreed - The vaccines are like many other vaccines - they make it much less likely that you will get the disease but, if you do, they can significantly reduce its impact.

[Edited 7/27/21 20:42pm]

Either they are ignorant of the science or deliberately presenting false information in furtherance of their political agendas

Idiots or Liars, basically

[Edited 7/27/21 21:31pm]

They've lost their minds.

What is more concerning is, people actually believe this BS.

U.S.A.
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Reply #133 posted 07/28/21 4:45am

PennyPurple

avatar

CherryMoon57 said:

PennyPurple said:

Glad your country has only had 129K deaths due to Covid. We've had 611+K here in the US


What freedom have you lost?


What freedoms have I lost? Are you kidding me? Having a choice is a freedom. In France they are already excluding people from many parts of society - and this will soon be applied everywhere - just because they are not fully vaccinated. People who used to talk about things like this in the past were called conspirationists. Now it is real and no one minds. What has happened to people's minds?

Again, what freedom have YOU lost?

U.S.A.
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Reply #134 posted 07/28/21 5:24am

TweetyV6

avatar

IanRG said:

I note you still cannot address that you quoted figures that mean that up to 85 million more people than there are in the USA have had Covid in the USA.

.

I know you have NOT done or understood an MSA on a figure that produces results that mean the total number of people that have had covid 19 in the USA is more than the total population of the USA.

.

Your data integrity has consistently been zero, whether it is about climate change or covid.


Hahahaha... NITWIT!
You didn't even look at the link I provided, because you know it all, huh?

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer

Moving-average case fatal...f COVID-19

The case fatality rate (CFR) is the ratio between confirmed deaths and confirmed cases. Our moving-average CFR is calculated as the ratio between the 7-day-average of the number of deaths and the 7-day-average of the number of cases 10 days earlier

That CFR is currently 0.94%

And it will change on a daily basis. But you don't seem to understand that. With your basic mathematics. lol lol lol


The man of science has learned to believe in justification, not by faith, but by verification - Thomas Henry Huxley
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Reply #135 posted 07/28/21 5:29am

TweetyV6

avatar

IanRG said:

your political agenda and bias.


Which fucking bias & political agenda are you talking constantly about?

You think I'm against vaccination and try to promote that?

The man of science has learned to believe in justification, not by faith, but by verification - Thomas Henry Huxley
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Reply #136 posted 07/28/21 5:31am

TweetyV6

avatar

PennyPurple said:

CherryMoon57 said:


What freedoms have I lost? Are you kidding me? Having a choice is a freedom. In France they are already excluding people from many parts of society - and this will soon be applied everywhere - just because they are not fully vaccinated. People who used to talk about things like this in the past were called conspirationists. Now it is real and no one minds. What has happened to people's minds?

Again, what freedom have YOU lost?

The one we ALL lost.

Going as we like, when we like, how we like, with whom we like, where we like without having to provide a statement of our 'health'. Each single fucking time again.

The man of science has learned to believe in justification, not by faith, but by verification - Thomas Henry Huxley
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Reply #137 posted 07/28/21 6:08am

djThunderfunk

avatar

PennyPurple said:

djThunderfunk said:


If the shot doesn't protect you from getting the virus then why did you take it and why do you think others should be forced to?

Because it does protect you from going to the hospital, being placed on a vent, and losing your life.


With the vaccine your symptoms are much less worse and more than likely won't even end up in the hospital and it can be managed at home.


You think so? Good luck with that:

https://www.cnbc.com/2021...ation.html



I'm in the control group.
https://www.britannica.co...trol-group
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Reply #138 posted 07/28/21 6:11am

IanRG

TweetyV6 said:

IanRG said:

I note you still cannot address that you quoted figures that mean that up to 85 million more people than there are in the USA have had Covid in the USA.

.

I know you have NOT done or understood an MSA on a figure that produces results that mean the total number of people that have had covid 19 in the USA is more than the total population of the USA.

.

Your data integrity has consistently been zero, whether it is about climate change or covid.


Hahahaha... NITWIT!
You didn't even look at the link I provided, because you know it all, huh?

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer

Moving-average case fatal...f COVID-19

The case fatality rate (CFR) is the ratio between confirmed deaths and confirmed cases. Our moving-average CFR is calculated as the ratio between the 7-day-average of the number of deaths and the 7-day-average of the number of cases 10 days earlier

That CFR is currently 0.94%

And it will change on a daily basis. But you don't seem to understand that. With your basic mathematics. lol lol lol


.

I did look, it was irrelevant because it is just a daily floating rate that will swing around as I said to would. That it is based on comparing 7 day averages that are not in at the same time as assumed or 14 days apart as you said just means that your figure here was no where near as bad as your IFR figure. It is based on the assumption that 10 days (not the 14 you claimed) is how long it takes for the person to die. This is a guess. One report I read said this should be 13 days for the UK first wave with an IRQ of 14 days, but 7 days for the second wave with an IRQ of 11 days. Looking at a daily movement that inaccurately guesses when the patient caught covid is apples and oranges, sorry Fruit and your ass. Looked at over a longer period and the CFR averages at 2% since Feb and 1.77% since the start. Stats have to have a use, otherwise they are pointless - To understand the fatality rate, any fatality rate, a single data point in a volatile dataset that guesses datapoints that should be matched is irrelevant. The total or the change over time is what important, not the daily fluctuation in mismatched 7 day averages.

.

However, this is all a distraction from your basic beginners maths failure where you have not realised or addressed that your figure is so wrong it is meaningless because it means the proportion of people in the USA that have or have had Covid is guessed at being more 100% of the total population. It is not surprising that you want the discussion to be elsewhere than here. So much for the boas tht it others who are blind and deaf to facts.

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Reply #139 posted 07/28/21 6:12am

djThunderfunk

avatar

jjhunsecker said:

PennyPurple said:

Because it does protect you from going to the hospital, being placed on a vent, and losing your life.


With the vaccine your symptoms are much less worse and more than likely won't even end up in the hospital and it can be managed at home.


This has been stated over and over again, here on this forum. YOU know this. Why do you keep asking the same questions over and over again?


Nobody here ever said if you get the vax you won't get covid. We've been saying the ^above over and over again.


Personally I don't care if you or Strive do not get the vax, it's all on you and your choice.
Just make sure you all have your house in order, so you don't leave a mess for your families.

Thanks for answering....

Some people I simply don't have the stomach to deal with

[Edited 7/27/21 21:23pm]


Yeah, but you think we're all the same person. If you are right about that then maybe you respond to me all the time and don't even know it? lol

For the record, I don't have any alter accounts, but since you like to pretend otherwise I may as well play into it. wink

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Reply #140 posted 07/28/21 6:13am

IanRG

TweetyV6 said:

IanRG said:

your political agenda and bias.


Which fucking bias & political agenda are you talking constantly about?

You think I'm against vaccination and try to promote that?

.

The political agenda you have been pushing here since the pandemic started.

[Edited 7/28/21 6:14am]

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Reply #141 posted 07/28/21 6:19am

jjhunsecker

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I can easily tell the douchebags from just the plain assholes
#SOCIETYDEFINESU
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Reply #142 posted 07/28/21 6:34am

CherryMoon57

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IanRG said:

CherryMoon57 said:


Don't take my words for it, listen to what scientists have to say about this. And their verdict is that...

'It remains to be seen whether the effect of COVID-19 on deaths remains greater than that of influenza.' https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid...99_article

.

You have taken a sentence out of context. "COVID-19 might have a long-lasting effect, potentially becoming endemic with yearly recurrence(s), similar to influenza. It remains to be seen whether the effect of COVID-19 on deaths remains greater than that of influenza. Monitoring of excess deaths can provide input for public health and economic decisions. This monitoring also remains essential for monitoring the effects of any other events and outbreaks and for detecting any unexpected and unforeseen increases in deaths." This is about unknowable outcomes IF Covid becomes endemic.

.

I won't take you word for it because the paper states:

.

"In addition, the measures implemented to control the COVID-19 epidemic presumably prevented many infections (24) and deaths. Thus, the effect of COVID-19 on deaths is potentially much higher than that of seasonal influenza. The joint effect of influenza and COVID-19 epidemics on deaths is not yet known because they hardly overlapped during the past influenza season. To avoid miscomparisons (25), we compared excess deaths from influenza and COVID-19 by using the same data (all-cause deaths) and the same statistical method."

.

"Additional study is required to better estimate the number of COVID-19 deaths averted in the Netherlands."

.

"Although COVID-19 incidence has greatly decreased because of social distancing and lockdown measures, measures are still in place to reduce virus transmission."

.

"Influenza vaccination is available in the Netherlands for risk groups (persons >60 years of age or those with underlying conditions) to reduce severe sequelae of influenza infections, but coverage is rather low (51% in 2019) (3336). Vaccination is only partially effective, and the effectiveness varies by season because of virus strain variability and varying vaccine match (Table 2). COVID-19 vaccination is not yet available. Social distancing and lockdown measures have had a large effect on decreasing the epidemic and thus also COVID-19 deaths. If some or all of these measures stay in place, they might likewise decrease influenza virus circulation and thus severe sequelae of infection in the upcoming winter season, as observed in Hong Kong, China, at the beginning of the COVID-19 epidemic (37)."



There was no need to go backwards in their discussion. It is basically lot of hypothetical talks, which is summarised by their inconclusive conclusion. In any case, refraining from mingling with others for long periods of time doesn't just keep the number of fatalities down, it can backfire by giving any bug a momentum. The full-force resurgence of many - any - bugs has already been predicted for this Winter.

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Reply #143 posted 07/28/21 6:42am

djThunderfunk

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jjhunsecker said:

I can easily tell the douchebags from just the plain assholes


lol

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Reply #144 posted 07/28/21 6:44am

CherryMoon57

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PennyPurple said:

CherryMoon57 said:


What freedoms have I lost? Are you kidding me? Having a choice is a freedom. In France they are already excluding people from many parts of society - and this will soon be applied everywhere - just because they are not fully vaccinated. People who used to talk about things like this in the past were called conspirationists. Now it is real and no one minds. What has happened to people's minds?

Again, what freedom have YOU lost?

I could tell you many things but it all depends on your own definition of freedom of course. Please tell me why I haven't been allowed to see my mother in months if not for the loss of my old freedom to do so.

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Reply #145 posted 07/28/21 6:45am

TweetyV6

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IanRG said:

TweetyV6 said:


Hahahaha... NITWIT!
You didn't even look at the link I provided, because you know it all, huh?

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer

Moving-average case fatal...f COVID-19

The case fatality rate (CFR) is the ratio between confirmed deaths and confirmed cases. Our moving-average CFR is calculated as the ratio between the 7-day-average of the number of deaths and the 7-day-average of the number of cases 10 days earlier

That CFR is currently 0.94%

And it will change on a daily basis. But you don't seem to understand that. With your basic mathematics. lol lol lol


.

I did look, it was irrelevant because it is just a daily floating rate that will swing around as I said to would. That it is based on comparing 7 day averages that are not in at the same time as assumed or 14 days apart as you said just means that your figure here was no where near as bad as your IFR figure. It is based on the assumption that 10 days (not the 14 you claimed) is how long it takes for the person to die. This is a guess. One report I read said this should be 13 days for the UK first wave with an IRQ of 14 days, but 7 days for the second wave with an IRQ of 11 days. Looking at a daily movement that inaccurately guesses when the patient caught covid is apples and oranges, sorry Fruit and your ass. Looked at over a longer period and the CFR averages at 2% since Feb and 1.77% since the start. Stats have to have a use, otherwise they are pointless - To understand the fatality rate, any fatality rate, a single data point in a volatile dataset that guesses datapoints that should be matched is irrelevant. The total or the change over time is what important, not the daily fluctuation in mismatched 7 day averages.

.

However, this is all a distraction from your basic beginners maths failure where you have not realised or addressed that your figure is so wrong it is meaningless because it means the proportion of people in the USA that have or have had Covid is guessed at being more 100% of the total population. It is not surprising that you want the discussion to be elsewhere than here. So much for the boas tht it others who are blind and deaf to facts.




Man, stop making a fool out of yourself.

For management info it doesn't fucking matter if it's 10 days, 13 or 14 or 100.
As long as your calculation always uses the same parameter, it's usefull to determine trends and derrive policies from it.

Calculating the cummulative CFR doesn't make any sense anymore as it won't change that much, only 4 - 5 digits behind the comma. (it's been around 1.8% for the last half year)

To get an impression of what is going on it's usefull to use a 7 day rolling average as you smear out weekly reporting fluctuations (e.g. weekend data reporting lag)


Man, man, man... you've got soooo much to learn.....


The man of science has learned to believe in justification, not by faith, but by verification - Thomas Henry Huxley
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Reply #146 posted 07/28/21 6:49am

djThunderfunk

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So it breaks down that some of us think the best course of action is to do your own research, talk to your own doctor(s), and decide for yourself the best course of action to protect yourself and stay healthy. Freedom.

Others think the best course of action is to only read and believe the research that is approved, only believe your own doctor(s) if they are in line with the approved messaging, and just get the damn shot because "they" say so. And if you don't, you can't participate in society and should be shunned by your friends and family. Fascism.

Freedom wins every time.

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Reply #147 posted 07/28/21 6:51am

TweetyV6

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djThunderfunk said:

PennyPurple said:

Because it does protect you from going to the hospital, being placed on a vent, and losing your life.


With the vaccine your symptoms are much less worse and more than likely won't even end up in the hospital and it can be managed at home.


You think so? Good luck with that:

https://www.cnbc.com/2021...ation.html




Read what you link.

“You are just as likely to be killed by a meteorite as die from Covid after a vaccine,” Dr. Peter Chin-Hong, an infectious disease expert at the University of California San Francisco, told CNBC. “In the big scheme of things, the vaccines are tremendously powerful.”

It was well known before that the efficacy of the vaccines wasn't 100%

So yes, fully vaccinated people have a very, very small chance to die from Covid-19.
But if you 're concerned about that, I'd advise you to never set foot outside of your bed again.
Don't take the car, don't travel by plane or train, don't eat crumbly stuff etc. etc.

The man of science has learned to believe in justification, not by faith, but by verification - Thomas Henry Huxley
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Reply #148 posted 07/28/21 6:52am

CherryMoon57

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TweetyV6 said:

PennyPurple said:

Again, what freedom have YOU lost?

The one we ALL lost.

Going as we like, when we like, how we like, with whom we like, where we like without having to provide a statement of our 'health'. Each single fucking time again.


It sounds like it's not just freedom people have lost, but also their own ability to think for themselves.

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Reply #149 posted 07/28/21 6:55am

CherryMoon57

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djThunderfunk said:

So it breaks down that some of us think the best course of action is to do your own research, talk to your own doctor(s), and decide for yourself the best course of action to protect yourself and stay healthy. Freedom.

Others think the best course of action is to only read and believe the research that is approved, only believe your own doctor(s) if they are in line with the approved messaging, and just get the damn shot because "they" say so. And if you don't, you can't participate in society and should be shunned by your friends and family. Fascism.

Freedom wins every time.


At least we're still allowed to post about it, but for how much longer? neutral

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