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Reply #30 posted 02/16/21 11:59pm

lust

avatar

TweetyV6 said:



IanRG said:




lust said:


TweetyV6 said: The Southern Hemisphere has done a full winter season during the pandemic.

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Correct, most of us have had a full year. Tweety is wrong: our winter is June to August, not July to September.


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We were the 63rd worst by cases 1 June 2020. By the end of our winter, we improved to being 69th despite a spike in Melbourne due to a slow response to a quarantine and high density housing breakout. Despite the assertions in the youtube, the lockdown in Melbourne was harsher than in USA and Europe. As a result it was shorter and effective.


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Despite it being a southern winter, the countries that overtook us were primarily in the northern summer.


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As you point out we have a winter result in the current figures already. Getting the facts right requires more than spinning that this is seasonal.




Your winter counts 9 days of June, full month of July, full month of August and 21 days of September, I know.

Lock-down stringency has no correlation with Covid-19 mortality.
See Chapter 5, page 35 of this paper

Then, there are more factors that play a role. Seasonality is one, but also the relative humidity, the hours of UV light per day and many other environmental

There is no spinning in that the virus is seasonal. That's a fact.



How’s that working for Argentina and South Africa? They’ve spiked this summer.
[Edited 2/17/21 0:01am]
If the milk turns out to be sour, I aint the kinda pussy to drink it!
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Reply #31 posted 02/17/21 2:03am

IanRG

TweetyV6 said:

IanRG said:

.

Correct, most of us have had a full year. Tweety is wrong: our winter is June to August, not July to September.

.

We were the 63rd worst by cases 1 June 2020. By the end of our winter, we improved to being 69th despite a spike in Melbourne due to a slow response to a quarantine and high density housing breakout. Despite the assertions in the youtube, the lockdown in Melbourne was harsher than in USA and Europe. As a result it was shorter and effective.

.

Despite it being a southern winter, the countries that overtook us were primarily in the northern summer.

.

As you point out we have a winter result in the current figures already. Getting the facts right requires more than spinning that this is seasonal.


Your winter counts 9 days of June, full month of July, full month of August and 21 days of September, I know.

Lock-down stringency has no correlation with Covid-19 mortality.
See Chapter 5, page 35 of this paper

Then, there are more factors that play a role. Seasonality is one, but also the relative humidity, the hours of UV light per day and many other environmental

There is no spinning in that the virus is seasonal. That's a fact.

.

You are wrong on our winter both from an official point of view (it is June, July and August) and from a factual point of view based on actual weather conditions. The latter method makes your spin and myth even more off target than your error on the official seasons. June July and August are the coldest months.

.

A 5 season split has been proposed based on actual weather conditions. This would shorten Winter to just June and July, add an early Spring (or Sprinter) being August and September - this is supported by the rapid rise in plant flowering in AUGUST due to rises in temperatures after the end of real Winter. Late Spring (Sprummer) would be October and November. Summer would lengthened to December, January, February and March. Autumn would be April and May.

.

You really should not just make things up.

.

The rest, you are making up a strawman argument - I never said effective management of the spread of Covid 19 by lockdowns will reduce mortality rates. It was YOU who said and I quote "Let's see what happens in July/August/September". I explained what happened in the REAL Winter June, July and August and despite a breakout in Melbourne from high density housing and hotel quarrantine, we improved our relative position compared to countries in the northern summer. Using your bogus season, it still shows the same: From 22/6 to 21/9 we still improved our relative position by more effectively controlling the number of covid 19 cases than countries in Summer at the same time. Indeed take the Melbourne breakout I described out, and the growth over Winter, whatever you think Winter is, and there was LESS growth in case numbers then the previous Autumn.

.

Getting facts right relies on not making things up and not spinning. That's a fact.

[Edited 2/17/21 11:05am]

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Reply #32 posted 02/17/21 2:28am

IanRG

Cerebus said:

Some of the strongest lockdowns in the world happened in Australia. I have several close friends there, it was seriously hard core.

Also, what people seem to be missing is that the population of Australia is roughly 25 million vs 327 million in the U.S. and the countries are not that far apart in size (Australia is much bigger than a lot of people realize). California alone has a population of 39 million in an area 1/18 the size of Australia.


It's not just about, "Australia did a better job." Not that simple.

.

Your last sentence it right - It is not just about one country doing better. Australia, New Zealand, Taiwan, Norway, Finland, Japan, South Korea, all with mixes of hemispherical locations, seasons, temperatures, UV, population densities and other measures are all doing better than average. It simply makes sense to seek to understand why and learn from it.

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This wont be the last pandemic and the objective should be to prevent, control and manage these by applying what was learned to minimise the deaths, economic dislocations and the mental health issues for all.

[Edited 2/17/21 2:48am]

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Reply #33 posted 02/17/21 2:31am

IanRG

Cerebus said:

lust said:

Cerebus said: But ok. Let’s compare U.S with N.Z. Population. U.S is 66 times that of N.Z Population density. U.S is about double that of N.Z Covid deaths. U.S is 18,769 times that of N.Z Not good is it!



I almost brought up NZ, because they did about as good a job as anyplace. Australia did a good job stopping the spread of Covid, even if it drove a lot of people into a deep depression. lol You're not going to convince me that anyplace had some magic answer, though. The size of Australia is still a valid point because of the population difference. The U.S. NEVER had a country wide policy. There was never any federal mandates. It was state by state and very often county by county. So when you start comparing on those scales even 25 million around your coasts is 15 million less than just California. Population density does matter. And honestly for as many people as there are in California we did a much better job than a lot of states with less population.

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Living in Australia and seeing the impact on mental health here and abroad, I do not see that the mental health issues are so bad here. The bushfires has much more of an impact.

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Reply #34 posted 02/17/21 6:58pm

Purplegarden

I made a computing error, Australia has ahd about 1150 cases per 1million people not 850.

.

But I agree the countrywide policy works, in the case of Australia - statewide is better I guess for places like Northern Territory, which had few cases given its isolation and lack of population outside the Darwin and Alice littorials - why punish Tennant Creek for something in downtown Melbourne or Sydney?

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But NZ - this locking down Auckland needs to stop - the last outbreak should have lockdown South Auckland only, rest of North Island at level 2 as these people travelled to New Plymouth without scanning and South island at Level 1.

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Despite the retreat in levels, enough events got cancelled or postponed. I had 3 clubs cancelled this week, America's cup racing got delayed and the Napier Art Deco festival cancelled, even though its Level One now. February is like August here in southern hemisphere, so its summer and a lot is happening!

.

Lust agree about scanning and masks, I went to the supermarket today - wore the mask the whole time (Very uncomfortable as I have a prognathous face) and probably less than half scanned and maybe 5% had masks. And this was a rich area - not a poor one (Stonefields New World).

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All of us please - Covid 19 is a tricky virus, its real and unpredictable - we all need to do our part!

I got plenty good loving for ya baby
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Reply #35 posted 02/18/21 10:50pm

TweetyV6

avatar

IanRG said:

TweetyV6 said:


Your winter counts 9 days of June, full month of July, full month of August and 21 days of September, I know.

Lock-down stringency has no correlation with Covid-19 mortality.
See Chapter 5, page 35 of this paper

Then, there are more factors that play a role. Seasonality is one, but also the relative humidity, the hours of UV light per day and many other environmental

There is no spinning in that the virus is seasonal. That's a fact.

.

You are wrong on our winter both from an official point of view (it is June, July and August) and from a factual point of view based on actual weather conditions. The latter method makes your spin and myth even more off target than your error on the official seasons. June July and August are the coldest months.

.

A 5 season split has been proposed based on actual weather conditions. This would shorten Winter to just June and July, add an early Spring (or Sprinter) being August and September - this is supported by the rapid rise in plant flowering in AUGUST due to rises in temperatures after the end of real Winter. Late Spring (Sprummer) would be October and November. Summer would lengthened to December, January, February and March. Autumn would be April and May.

.

You really should not just make things up.

.

The rest, you are making up a strawman argument - I never said effective management of the spread of Covid 19 by lockdowns will reduce mortality rates. It was YOU who said and I quote "Let's see what happens in July/August/September". I explained what happened in the REAL Winter June, July and August and despite a breakout in Melbourne from high density housing and hotel quarrantine, we improved our relative position compared to countries in the northern summer. Using your bogus season, it still shows the same: From 22/6 to 21/9 we still improved our relative position by more effectively controlling the number of covid 19 cases than countries in Summer at the same time. Indeed take the Melbourne breakout I described out, and the growth over Winter, whatever you think Winter is, and there was LESS growth in case numbers then the previous Autumn.

.

Getting facts right relies on not making things up and not spinning. That's a fact.

[Edited 2/17/21 11:05am]


Get lost! You don't even understand basic astronomy?
Weather doesn't define seasons. The position of the earth to the sun does.

Summer solstice is 21st/22nd of June (Beginning of summer N hemi, beginning of winter S hemi)
Winter solstice is 21st/22nd December

That's what the Gregorian calendar is based on; position of the earth in respect to the sun.


And yes. Again, let's see what happens in Australia in the winter.

The man of science has learned to believe in justification, not by faith, but by verification - Thomas Henry Huxley
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Reply #36 posted 02/18/21 10:57pm

TweetyV6

avatar

lust said:

TweetyV6 said:


Your winter counts 9 days of June, full month of July, full month of August and 21 days of September, I know.

Lock-down stringency has no correlation with Covid-19 mortality.
See Chapter 5, page 35 of this paper

Then, there are more factors that play a role. Seasonality is one, but also the relative humidity, the hours of UV light per day and many other environmental

There is no spinning in that the virus is seasonal. That's a fact.

How’s that working for Argentina and South Africa? They’ve spiked this summer. [Edited 2/17/21 0:01am]

There are more environmental factors which accelerate or slow down the spread of virusses.

If you want to know more about it, I advise you to read Edgar Hope-Simpsons 'The Transmission of Epidemic Influenza'

The man of science has learned to believe in justification, not by faith, but by verification - Thomas Henry Huxley
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Reply #37 posted 02/18/21 11:34pm

IanRG

TweetyV6 said:

IanRG said:

.

You are wrong on our winter both from an official point of view (it is June, July and August) and from a factual point of view based on actual weather conditions. The latter method makes your spin and myth even more off target than your error on the official seasons. June July and August are the coldest months.

.

A 5 season split has been proposed based on actual weather conditions. This would shorten Winter to just June and July, add an early Spring (or Sprinter) being August and September - this is supported by the rapid rise in plant flowering in AUGUST due to rises in temperatures after the end of real Winter. Late Spring (Sprummer) would be October and November. Summer would lengthened to December, January, February and March. Autumn would be April and May.

.

You really should not just make things up.

.

The rest, you are making up a strawman argument - I never said effective management of the spread of Covid 19 by lockdowns will reduce mortality rates. It was YOU who said and I quote "Let's see what happens in July/August/September". I explained what happened in the REAL Winter June, July and August and despite a breakout in Melbourne from high density housing and hotel quarrantine, we improved our relative position compared to countries in the northern summer. Using your bogus season, it still shows the same: From 22/6 to 21/9 we still improved our relative position by more effectively controlling the number of covid 19 cases than countries in Summer at the same time. Indeed take the Melbourne breakout I described out, and the growth over Winter, whatever you think Winter is, and there was LESS growth in case numbers then the previous Autumn.

.

Getting facts right relies on not making things up and not spinning. That's a fact.

[Edited 2/17/21 11:05am]


Get lost! You don't even understand basic astronomy?
Weather doesn't define seasons. The position of the earth to the sun does.

Summer solstice is 21st/22nd of June (Beginning of summer N hemi, beginning of winter S hemi)
Winter solstice is 21st/22nd December

That's what the Gregorian calendar is based on; position of the earth in respect to the sun.


And yes. Again, let's see what happens in Australia in the winter.

.

Get found - I understood your confusion but in regard to susceptibility to diseases, seasons are NOT a concept of basic astronomy. They ARE defined by the weather.

.

Hence tropical areas tend to have only two seasons - wet and dry. Clearly, this has NOTHING to do with your "astrology", ie myths linked to astronomy. You are NOT more prone to a disease because of what solstice and equinox you are between, you are potentially more at risk because of the seasonal weather conditions.

.

You keep on ignoring, we have had a winter and outside of a special circumstance in one side of a single city, the winter in Australia, whether it is the real one defined by the weather patterns, or your "astrology", BOTH had fewer cases than the previous Autumn. And in both periods Australia improved its position relative to countries in their Northern summer.

.

Facts beat spin.

[Edited 2/18/21 23:45pm]

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Reply #38 posted 02/19/21 1:00am

IanRG

Normally the flu season build up is long before the winter solstice and it peaks and rapidly falls before the spring equinox.

.

Also our 2020 winter performance in managing Covid 19 ALSO meant our winter (however you want to measure it) had fewer flu cases than the preceding autumn.

[Edited 2/19/21 1:03am]

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Reply #39 posted 02/19/21 3:02am

lust

avatar

IanRG said:

Normally the flu season build up is long before the winter solstice and it peaks and rapidly falls before the spring equinox.


.


Also our 2020 winter performance in managing Covid 19 ALSO meant our winter (however you want to measure it) had fewer flu cases than the preceding autumn.

[Edited 2/19/21 1:03am]



Yep. In NZ over our full winter season during the Covid pandemic.....(pause for room for Tweety’s comprehension)..... we all but obliterated influenza*

* https://www.rnz.co.nz/nat...o-lockdown
If the milk turns out to be sour, I aint the kinda pussy to drink it!
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Reply #40 posted 02/19/21 7:16am

2freaky4church
1

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I was talking about one day u liars.

All you others say Hell Yea!! woot!
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Reply #41 posted 02/19/21 10:14am

lust

avatar

2freaky4church1 said:

I was talking about one day u liars.



We’re not psychic mate. You strike me as the type of bloke who nods yes or no when he’s on the phone.

Try and communicate more clearly. Calling people liars because they didn’t understand your cryptic garbage is rude you child.
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Reply #42 posted 02/20/21 1:53am

Purplegarden

Hear hear Lust,

.

We get tired of Americans telling us Kiwis (and Aussies) what they think they know about our society and then if found wrong, seem to think they can advise us.

.

They just can't admit, that our governments (Especially NZ and less successfully Australia's) have dealt with Covid 19 about as good as a government possibly can (Meaning we can not claim victory as Covid is a very wily and difficult opponent).

.

As of now, Auckland is bound to drop back to level one soon and all of the lockdowns in Australia are finito. Melbourne and Perth is back to business as usual.

I got plenty good loving for ya baby
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Reply #43 posted 02/27/21 1:06am

Purplegarden

New Zealand has 7 more days of lockdown as the community outbreak of 3 cases has swelled to 14 with at least 3 of them working at K marts, KFC outlets and Vape stores whilst having Covid 19

.

The Prime Minister admitted these people were not isolating and not following rules and now some 2 or 3 thousand shoppers may have Covid. The strain is the British B.1.7 strain and very contagious, it is also taking a long time to manifest and many people are asymptomatic.

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Auckland moves to Level 3 which is basically complete lockdown and rest of country to Level 2, even though the cases are based in the ghetto suburbs of South Auckland and involve Pacific Islanders or Indians (They won't announce race due to PC nonsense - but the behaviour suggests migrants). Social media has named the family and they have received death threats.

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This lockdown will cost Auckland at least $440 million in lost revenue from businesses, schools and most shops being closed due to the antics of some teenagers partying it up at vape stores, Burger King and othestupid and selfish shit. Most kiwis are angry and had it with the incompetent socialist and politically correct government and its border bungles. The spreaders should be arrested, but they won't do anything, the govt blamed themselves as the family needed to work as they were too poor and coming forward with symptoms is not part of their culture. So the government needed to give them more welfare money and they are young after all (Yes 21 is young and childlike now).

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This leftie is turning more right by the minute. This had better be the last one as vaccinations are starting in the community, yet they are rolling out at an incredible rate of about 20 people a day.

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The government got it wrong by ending the last lockdown too early. Auckland enjoyed 5 whole days back at level before the governemnt announced the latest lockdown.

[Edited 2/27/21 1:09am]

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Reply #44 posted 02/27/21 1:23am

lust

avatar

Not sure about blaming migrants.
NZ is full of people who don’t give a shit or follow the rules.
If the milk turns out to be sour, I aint the kinda pussy to drink it!
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Reply #45 posted 02/27/21 6:24am

Purplegarden

Lust, they live in Papatoetoe (Americans, that is Watts, Detriot, Camden and Londoners its Peckham equivalent)

Multi generational households

Close connections between at least 12 of the cases

Mother works at a commercial laundry

Two teenage women work at K Mart and KFC, both are school leavers, not graduates, the KFC girl had to work as family needed money.

Babies and teenagers in the same house

Visiting vaping shops and Burger King and partying with their homies and spreading that Covid love around.

Not staying put or scanning anywhere

No one getting punished

Govt apologises for lack of help of these people and advises they are human beings who make mistakes.

.

Sorry dude, to me that does not say White NZer, that says

Most likely I would say they are Pasifika, if not that Maori or Indian.

Less likely Chinese or Muslim/Black/Latino and absolutely no chance European/Pakeha, although some of their selfish behaviour makes you wonder.

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At end of the day, who cares what ethnicity they are - they are a pack of selfish cretins who have endangered the whole country and the educational year will suffer more disruption, businesses remain closed and many people may lose their jobs - is that what humans do to each other.

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Just yesterday I was at my favourite suburban Thai restaurant (First meal outing since July last year before you all pile on me as rich and entitled), half empty and they made a mistake on my meal and got really sad and apologetic about it, I assured them it was nothing but suspect they were worried about their restaurant going down the gurgler as they had to increase prices. Now they can look forward to more unwanted time off - throwing out food that won't keep a week and have to find other ways to feed their families - yes but lets all show compassion!.

.

Sheesh, I am no longer a Labour supporter and finally joining ACT.

[Edited 2/27/21 6:29am]

[Edited 2/27/21 6:30am]

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Reply #46 posted 02/27/21 10:19am

lust

avatar

That was a big ranty reply to a comment about blaming immigrants. I never mentioned white New Zealanders. You did. The suggestion therefore that white people aren’t migrants and dark people (inc Māori no less) are migrants is a massive red flag.

But you know what, we can all be prejudiced. I’ll put my hand up to doing that yesterday when I saw a headline in the Herald about a school that did a black face show. Curly afros, the whole nine yards. I immediately assumed that it would be a South Island school despite the South Island only having 20% of the population. So an 80% chance it was North Island and I prejudged it was South Island because “it’s very white and racist down there”

Ok bad example because I was right!

Hey, you’re from Christchurch eh?
[Edited 2/27/21 10:31am]
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