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Reply #210 posted 06/29/20 8:35am

cborgman

avatar

DiminutiveRocker said:

cborgman said:

i dont know of the accuracy of other countries, but i guarantee the numbers reported in the US and likely he UK as well are much lower than the reality.

just the other day trump stopped funding testing in states that are going to see huge spikes, and his entire plan is to undercut the numbers any way he can to cover up the disaterous levels of how bad is getting and will continue to get.

neutral right. But he cannot control the death count - just the positivce case count that is reported by the testing, right?

yes, but i wouldnt put it past him to try and undercut the death toll as well.


Power tends to corrupt; absolute power corrupts absolutely. - Lord Acton
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Reply #211 posted 06/29/20 8:50am

DiminutiveRock
er

avatar

cborgman said:

DiminutiveRocker said:

neutral right. But he cannot control the death count - just the positivce case count that is reported by the testing, right?

yes, but i wouldnt put it past him to try and undercut the death toll as well.


God, I hope not. I don't think he can conrol ALL the data, which is why I think he sent Pee-nence out on this mini PR junket this last weekend. If hospitals are crying "we are near capacity" you cannot change that no matter how much testing you diminish. By decreasing testing they allow people who have it to walk around transmitting it since it takes two weeks for symptoms to even reveal themselves.

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Reply #212 posted 06/29/20 9:12am

OnlyNDaUsa

avatar

maplenpg said:

OnlyNDaUsa said:

do you belive that death numbers are higher in the US and UK but most other nation's number are accurate?

Nope, that's why I used the phrase "the US and UK collectively have over 30% of the total reported deaths in the whole world.". I don't honestly care if other countries are, or aren't accurate; these are the figures we've got and that's what they tell us.

I agree that too many people are dying. All I am saying is not all nations are reporting accurately and if they did that rate would likely be lower.

there are also issues of what counts... if a person with cancer that is 97 get is and dies... should that really count? I know there was a debate to clear up those that died WITH as opposed to FROM this virus.


and then at least admit there are political motives to how some of these numbers are being reported.

No Matter How ANYONE tries to justify it our rights, freedoms, and Liberties are being restricted in the name of COVID-19.
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Reply #213 posted 06/29/20 9:25am

maplenpg

OnlyNDaUsa said:

maplenpg said:

Nope, that's why I used the phrase "the US and UK collectively have over 30% of the total reported deaths in the whole world.". I don't honestly care if other countries are, or aren't accurate; these are the figures we've got and that's what they tell us.

I agree that too many people are dying. All I am saying is not all nations are reporting accurately and if they did that rate would likely be lower.

there are also issues of what counts... if a person with cancer that is 97 get is and dies... should that really count? I know there was a debate to clear up those that died WITH as opposed to FROM this virus.


and then at least admit there are political motives to how some of these numbers are being reported.

I'm not an 'others' person. I'm concerned with what we are doing to beat the virus and I'm a firm believer in suppression, which is the exact opposite of what our government, and the US government are doing. The numbers are too high, regardless of where we come in the 'highest deaths' championships. I've never disagreed there are political motives to how numbers are being reported - I'm sure I even commented on it when our government changed it's way of counting and started 'losing' data that we had been reporting.

As for your second point. Sure, some people would have died within the next few months, others in the next few years, others could have decades ahead of them. But if Covid killed them early, even by a few days, then Covid killed them.

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Reply #214 posted 06/29/20 11:41am

DiminutiveRock
er

avatar

maplenpg said:

OnlyNDaUsa said:

I agree that too many people are dying. All I am saying is not all nations are reporting accurately and if they did that rate would likely be lower.

there are also issues of what counts... if a person with cancer that is 97 get is and dies... should that really count? I know there was a debate to clear up those that died WITH as opposed to FROM this virus.


and then at least admit there are political motives to how some of these numbers are being reported.

I'm not an 'others' person. I'm concerned with what we are doing to beat the virus and I'm a firm believer in suppression, which is the exact opposite of what our government, and the US government are doing. The numbers are too high, regardless of where we come in the 'highest deaths' championships. I've never disagreed there are political motives to how numbers are being reported - I'm sure I even commented on it when our government changed it's way of counting and started 'losing' data that we had been reporting.

As for your second point. Sure, some people would have died within the next few months, others in the next few years, others could have decades ahead of them. But if Covid killed them early, even by a few days, then Covid killed them.

^^^ Completley agree. My niece-in-law has lupus, my niece had asthma and are young and likely to live for many many years. However, both are in the compromised / vulnerable category - if they contract covid they coud die years before they ever would have.

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Reply #215 posted 06/29/20 11:56am

cborgman

avatar

maplenpg said:

OnlyNDaUsa said:

I agree that too many people are dying. All I am saying is not all nations are reporting accurately and if they did that rate would likely be lower.

there are also issues of what counts... if a person with cancer that is 97 get is and dies... should that really count? I know there was a debate to clear up those that died WITH as opposed to FROM this virus.


and then at least admit there are political motives to how some of these numbers are being reported.

I'm not an 'others' person. I'm concerned with what we are doing to beat the virus and I'm a firm believer in suppression, which is the exact opposite of what our government, and the US government are doing. The numbers are too high, regardless of where we come in the 'highest deaths' championships. I've never disagreed there are political motives to how numbers are being reported - I'm sure I even commented on it when our government changed it's way of counting and started 'losing' data that we had been reporting.

As for your second point. Sure, some people would have died within the next few months, others in the next few years, others could have decades ahead of them. But if Covid killed them early, even by a few days, then Covid killed them.

yup.

similar with aids. you dont die of aids, you die from something else aids enabled or assisted. but... you still kind of die from aids, as that is what baseline caused it or made it unsurvivable.




[Edited 6/29/20 12:01pm]

Power tends to corrupt; absolute power corrupts absolutely. - Lord Acton
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Reply #216 posted 06/29/20 12:01pm

poppys

cborgman said:

maplenpg said:

I'm not an 'others' person. I'm concerned with what we are doing to beat the virus and I'm a firm believer in suppression, which is the exact opposite of what our government, and the US government are doing. The numbers are too high, regardless of where we come in the 'highest deaths' championships. I've never disagreed there are political motives to how numbers are being reported - I'm sure I even commented on it when our government changed it's way of counting and started 'losing' data that we had been reporting.

As for your second point. Sure, some people would have died within the next few months, others in the next few years, others could have decades ahead of them. But if Covid killed them early, even by a few days, then Covid killed them.

yup.

similar with aids. you dont die of aids, you die from something else aids enabled. but... you still kind of die from aids, as that is what baseline caused it or made it unsurvivable.

Agree. They are tamping down all the nursing home death statistics so "the industry" can keep going. I would be yanking my parents out of nursing homes if they were still living.

"if you can't clap on the one, then don't clap at all"
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Reply #217 posted 06/29/20 12:02pm

cborgman

avatar

poppys said:

cborgman said:

yup.

similar with aids. you dont die of aids, you die from something else aids enabled. but... you still kind of die from aids, as that is what baseline caused it or made it unsurvivable.

Agree. They are tamping down all the nursing home death statistics so "the industry" can keep going. I would be yanking my parents out of nursing homes if they were still living.

agree. the numbers are terrible, but reality is likely worse.

Power tends to corrupt; absolute power corrupts absolutely. - Lord Acton
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Reply #218 posted 06/29/20 12:12pm

DiminutiveRock
er

avatar

cborgman said:

poppys said:

Agree. They are tamping down all the nursing home death statistics so "the industry" can keep going. I would be yanking my parents out of nursing homes if they were still living.

agree. the numbers are terrible, but reality is likely worse.


My cousin is pulling her mom out - she said it's a death sentence to leave her in there and she couldn't even see her.

VOTE....EARLY
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Reply #219 posted 06/29/20 12:58pm

IanRG

OnlyNDaUsa said:

maplenpg said:

Nope, that's why I used the phrase "the US and UK collectively have over 30% of the total reported deaths in the whole world.". I don't honestly care if other countries are, or aren't accurate; these are the figures we've got and that's what they tell us.

I agree that too many people are dying. All I am saying is not all nations are reporting accurately and if they did that rate would likely be lower.

there are also issues of what counts... if a person with cancer that is 97 get is and dies... should that really count? I know there was a debate to clear up those that died WITH as opposed to FROM this virus.


and then at least admit there are political motives to how some of these numbers are being reported.

.

There is no debate about died with as opposed to died from by the experts. No one dies from AIDS, they die with AIDS as a result of AIDS. The figures on Covid 19 are limited to those who death was at least in part as a result of Covid19 - even if they also died as a result of another condition, just the same as every other assessment of cause of death. For deaths as a result of Covid 19, this is a much tighter measure than those considered to have died as a result of a flu (even the person who died as a result of a flu was 97 with cancer). Flu deaths are estimated and not dependent on a positive test for a flu virus (in the USA only 1 in 6 flu deaths has a positive flu virus test), whilst Covid19 deaths in the USA and UK (and elsewhere) are ignored if there is no positive test. Despite this, it is still massively above flu deaths.

.

This means the reported deaths in the USA and UK are also more likely to be understated in the USA and UK and not just in other countries. It is a political based assumption that, given your country is also underestimating Covid19 deaths by deliberate processes, that your country's underestimation is more OK than other country's.

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Reply #220 posted 06/29/20 1:37pm

IanRG

TweetyV6 said:

The spike is caused by more testing.

.

No. This is a logic error. The Rest of Scandinavia (RoS) did more testing per 1 million people to bring their initial spike under control at a much lower level than Sweden and to produce a more rapid reduction in both new cases and daily deaths than Sweden.

.

Sweden is not randomly sampling the population and finding new unexpected cases by the ramp-up in testing. It is the other way round. More people are presenting with potential symptoms, so more people are being tested and confirmed as infected. At the same time, RoS is only now doing less testing because fewer people are presenting with symptoms.

.

Or in simple terms: The more testing today is caused by the spike in infections. Now if they did reasonable testing with track and trace aided by a better lockdown, then they could have been as well off as RoS. Or to put this in perspective Sweden is 5th worst in the world currently in terms of deaths per million population and Norway is 40th worst. Total deaths in Sweden are an order of magnitude higher than Norway times 2.

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Reply #221 posted 06/29/20 3:07pm

DiminutiveRock
er

avatar

IanRG said:

TweetyV6 said:

The spike is caused by more testing.

.

No. This is a logic error. The Rest of Scandinavia (RoS) did more testing per 1 million people to bring their initial spike under control at a much lower level than Sweden and to produce a more rapid reduction in both new cases and daily deaths than Sweden.

.

Sweden is not randomly sampling the population and finding new unexpected cases by the ramp-up in testing. It is the other way round. More people are presenting with potential symptoms, so more people are being tested and confirmed as infected. At the same time, RoS is only now doing less testing because fewer people are presenting with symptoms.

.

Or in simple terms: The more testing today is caused by the spike in infections. Now if they did reasonable testing with track and trace aided by a better lockdown, then they could have been as well off as RoS. Or to put this in perspective Sweden is 5th worst in the world currently in terms of deaths per million population and Norway is 40th worst. Total deaths in Sweden are an order of magnitude higher than Norway times 2.


What isn't he getting about quantitative data derived from hospitals for deaths - hospital ICU bed counts (separate from oher ICU patients) and death certificates?

VOTE....EARLY
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Reply #222 posted 06/29/20 3:28pm

benni

Can we please get Trump out of office before this happens????

Flu virus with 'pandemic potential' found in China




https://www.bbc.com/news/...m2=twitter


A new strain of flu that has the potential to become pandemic has been identified in China by scientists.
It emerged recently and is carried by pigs, but can infect humans, they say.
The researchers are concerned that it could mutate further so that it can spread easily from person to person, and trigger a global outbreak.
They say it has "all the hallmarks" of being highly adapted to infect humans - and needs close monitoring.
As it's new, people could have little or no immunity to the virus.

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Reply #223 posted 06/29/20 3:41pm

uPtoWnNY

Our office in Midtown has reopened...right now employees are coming in two days a week. For me, it's just good to be back in NYC again.

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Reply #224 posted 06/29/20 4:13pm

DiminutiveRock
er

avatar

VOTE....EARLY
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Reply #225 posted 06/30/20 12:57am

TweetyV6

avatar

cborgman said:

DiminutiveRocker said:

neutral right. But he cannot control the death count - just the positivce case count that is reported by the testing, right?

yes, but i wouldnt put it past him to try and undercut the death toll as well.



Excess Deaths in the US are back to (actually below) normal:


https://public.tableau.com/views/COVID_excess_mort_withcauses_06242020/WeeklyExcessDeaths?:embed=y&:jsdebug=y&:toolbar=n&:tabs=n&:display_count=n&:origin=viz_share_link

The man of science has learned to believe in justification, not by faith, but by verification - Thomas Henry Huxley
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Reply #226 posted 06/30/20 1:21am

IanRG

TweetyV6 said:

cborgman said:

yes, but i wouldnt put it past him to try and undercut the death toll as well.



Excess Deaths in the US are back to (actually below) normal:


https://public.tableau.com/views/COVID_excess_mort_withcauses_06242020/WeeklyExcessDeaths?:embed=y&:jsdebug=y&:toolbar=n&:tabs=n&:display_count=n&:origin=viz_share_link

.

You have pulled another tweety.

.

Read the note on the later figures - I will make it easy: It states that they are incomplete with only 60% of figures supplied within the 10 days after the end of the week and completeness varies by jurisdiction. This note is on all the Covid19 era results.

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Reply #227 posted 06/30/20 1:40am

TweetyV6

avatar

IanRG said:

TweetyV6 said:

The spike is caused by more testing.

.

No. This is a logic error. The Rest of Scandinavia (RoS) did more testing per 1 million people to bring their initial spike under control at a much lower level than Sweden and to produce a more rapid reduction in both new cases and daily deaths than Sweden.

.

Sweden is not randomly sampling the population and finding new unexpected cases by the ramp-up in testing. It is the other way round. More people are presenting with potential symptoms, so more people are being tested and confirmed as infected. At the same time, RoS is only now doing less testing because fewer people are presenting with symptoms.

.

Or in simple terms: The more testing today is caused by the spike in infections. Now if they did reasonable testing with track and trace aided by a better lockdown, then they could have been as well off as RoS. Or to put this in perspective Sweden is 5th worst in the world currently in terms of deaths per million population and Norway is 40th worst. Total deaths in Sweden are an order of magnitude higher than Norway times 2.


The more testing is caused by a change in policy & freeing up money: 5.9 Billion SEK
The Swedes were fed up constantly being criticised for their approach and being compared to DK, NOR & FIN by "Told you so''-fucktwats

Sweden now is testing current infections AND previous infections
(anti-body testing)
These are added up causing the spike we see now.



Covid-19 mortality is steadyly decling (as it is is all other countries where Corona hit at the same time)

Sweden
USA
Germany
Denmark

Italy
the Netherlands
UK


Excess Mortality Rates in the EU have dropped back to or even below normal.
See how well Sweden is doing compared to e.g. the UK.

https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps

(Scroll down for individual countries)

The man of science has learned to believe in justification, not by faith, but by verification - Thomas Henry Huxley
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Reply #228 posted 06/30/20 1:43am

TweetyV6

avatar

IanRG said:

TweetyV6 said:


Excess Deaths in the US are back to (actually below) normal:


https://public.tableau.com/views/COVID_excess_mort_withcauses_06242020/WeeklyExcessDeaths?:embed=y&:jsdebug=y&:toolbar=n&:tabs=n&:display_count=n&:origin=viz_share_link

.

You have pulled another tweety.

.

Read the note on the later figures - I will make it easy: It states that they are incomplete with only 60% of figures supplied within the 10 days after the end of the week and completeness varies by jurisdiction. This note is on all the Covid19 era results.

So?
It's well known reporting delay. You also see that in the Excess Mortality reports in Europe.

That doesn't change anything about the trend, now does it?

It will be interresting to keep an eye on this page for the next 2-3 weeks.

The man of science has learned to believe in justification, not by faith, but by verification - Thomas Henry Huxley
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Reply #229 posted 06/30/20 1:57am

IanRG

TweetyV6 said:

IanRG said:

.

No. This is a logic error. The Rest of Scandinavia (RoS) did more testing per 1 million people to bring their initial spike under control at a much lower level than Sweden and to produce a more rapid reduction in both new cases and daily deaths than Sweden.

.

Sweden is not randomly sampling the population and finding new unexpected cases by the ramp-up in testing. It is the other way round. More people are presenting with potential symptoms, so more people are being tested and confirmed as infected. At the same time, RoS is only now doing less testing because fewer people are presenting with symptoms.

.

Or in simple terms: The more testing today is caused by the spike in infections. Now if they did reasonable testing with track and trace aided by a better lockdown, then they could have been as well off as RoS. Or to put this in perspective Sweden is 5th worst in the world currently in terms of deaths per million population and Norway is 40th worst. Total deaths in Sweden are an order of magnitude higher than Norway times 2.


The more testing is caused by a change in policy & freeing up money: 5.9 Billion SEK
The Swedes were fed up constantly being criticised for their approach and being compared to DK, NOR & FIN by "Told you so''-fucktwats

Sweden now is testing current infections AND previous infections
(anti-body testing)
These are added up causing the spike we see now.



Covid-19 mortality is steadyly decling (as it is is all other countries where Corona hit at the same time)

Sweden
USA
Germany
Denmark

Italy
the Netherlands
UK


Excess Mortality Rates in the EU have dropped back to or even below normal.
See how well Sweden is doing compared to e.g. the UK.

https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps

(Scroll down for individual countries)

.

That is because Sweden so seriously stuffed up and they need to play catchup - with the 5th highest rate of death per million for countries with over a million population, their testing rate is still way down at 56th in the world. RoS can back off testing because they have been much more effective with a slower outbreak, quicker peak and quicker drop AND MUCH FEWER DEATHS.

.

If I was Sweden I would also be highly embarrassed by comparisions. The RoS is opening up to each other and guess who is not invited.

.

It is a really poor excuse to say oh yeah but we are doing better than the UK.

[Edited 6/30/20 2:04am]

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Reply #230 posted 06/30/20 2:03am

IanRG

TweetyV6 said:

IanRG said:

.

You have pulled another tweety.

.

Read the note on the later figures - I will make it easy: It states that they are incomplete with only 60% of figures supplied within the 10 days after the end of the week and completeness varies by jurisdiction. This note is on all the Covid19 era results.

So?
It's well known reporting delay. You also see that in the Excess Mortality reports in Europe.

That doesn't change anything about the trend, now does it?

It will be interresting to keep an eye on this page for the next 2-3 weeks.

.

So? Only that you have been caught out missing vital points in your rush to find anything that supports your predetermined beliefs.

.

The most significant change in the trend is you missed key information and claimed that the death rate in the last week was trending so it is now lower the normal death rate. You did not apply a scientific mind to a figure that clearly a data integrity issue and you either missed the notes on why it was too low or you deliberately ignored this because it did not suit your story and you know few people follow your links.

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Reply #231 posted 06/30/20 2:24am

TweetyV6

avatar

IanRG said:

TweetyV6 said:

So?
It's well known reporting delay. You also see that in the Excess Mortality reports in Europe.

That doesn't change anything about the trend, now does it?

It will be interresting to keep an eye on this page for the next 2-3 weeks.

.

So? Only that you have been caught out missing vital points in your rush to find anything that supports your predetermined beliefs.

.

The most significant change in the trend is you missed key information and claimed that the death rate in the last week was trending so it is now lower the normal death rate. You did not apply a scientific mind to a figure that clearly a data integrity issue and you either missed the notes on why it was too low or you deliberately ignored this because it did not suit your story and you know few people follow your links.


Man, oh man...

Yes, data of this week will change in the coming 2-3 weeks. But not significantly. The changes are too little to dismiss the displayed trend.

Change the dates in the link and see how little the values per column change over time.
The currently predicted 48,100 may become 51,000 but certainly NOT 55,000 or higher

rolleyes rolleyes rolleyes

.

[Edited 6/30/20 2:32am]

The man of science has learned to believe in justification, not by faith, but by verification - Thomas Henry Huxley
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Reply #232 posted 06/30/20 3:49am

maplenpg

IanRG said:

TweetyV6 said:


The more testing is caused by a change in policy & freeing up money: 5.9 Billion SEK
The Swedes were fed up constantly being criticised for their approach and being compared to DK, NOR & FIN by "Told you so''-fucktwats

Sweden now is testing current infections AND previous infections
(anti-body testing)
These are added up causing the spike we see now.



Covid-19 mortality is steadyly decling (as it is is all other countries where Corona hit at the same time)

Sweden
USA
Germany
Denmark

Italy
the Netherlands
UK


Excess Mortality Rates in the EU have dropped back to or even below normal.
See how well Sweden is doing compared to e.g. the UK.

https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps

(Scroll down for individual countries)

.

That is because Sweden so seriously stuffed up and they need to play catchup - with the 5th highest rate of death per million for countries with over a million population, their testing rate is still way down at 56th in the world. RoS can back off testing because they have been much more effective with a slower outbreak, quicker peak and quicker drop AND MUCH FEWER DEATHS.

.

If I was Sweden I would also be highly embarrassed by comparisions. The RoS is opening up to each other and guess who is not invited.

.

It is a really poor excuse to say oh yeah but we are doing better than the UK.

To be fair, it'd be hard to do worse than the UK (or now I feel I must just say England), especially with this buffoon in charge.


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Reply #233 posted 06/30/20 3:52am

IanRG

TweetyV6 said:

IanRG said:

.

So? Only that you have been caught out missing vital points in your rush to find anything that supports your predetermined beliefs.

.

The most significant change in the trend is you missed key information and claimed that the death rate in the last week was trending so it is now lower the normal death rate. You did not apply a scientific mind to a figure that clearly a data integrity issue and you either missed the notes on why it was too low or you deliberately ignored this because it did not suit your story and you know few people follow your links.


Man, oh man...

Yes, data of this week will change in the coming 2-3 weeks. But not significantly. The changes are too little to dismiss the displayed trend.

Change the dates in the link and see how little the values per column change over time.
The currently predicted 48,100 may become 51,000 but certainly NOT 55,000 or higher

rolleyes rolleyes rolleyes

.

[Edited 6/30/20 2:32am]

.

Try again - they flagged all the weeks that are above the normal line as potentially incomplete, not just the last week - they say all these figures could change. Yet you imagine you can guess what the real figure for the latest week will be.

.

If this was a graph put up to show something with which you disagree, we all know you would go berko on the clear and obvious error here.

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Reply #234 posted 06/30/20 4:04am

maplenpg

TweetyV6 said:

IanRG said:

.

No. This is a logic error. The Rest of Scandinavia (RoS) did more testing per 1 million people to bring their initial spike under control at a much lower level than Sweden and to produce a more rapid reduction in both new cases and daily deaths than Sweden.

.

Sweden is not randomly sampling the population and finding new unexpected cases by the ramp-up in testing. It is the other way round. More people are presenting with potential symptoms, so more people are being tested and confirmed as infected. At the same time, RoS is only now doing less testing because fewer people are presenting with symptoms.

.

Or in simple terms: The more testing today is caused by the spike in infections. Now if they did reasonable testing with track and trace aided by a better lockdown, then they could have been as well off as RoS. Or to put this in perspective Sweden is 5th worst in the world currently in terms of deaths per million population and Norway is 40th worst. Total deaths in Sweden are an order of magnitude higher than Norway times 2.


The more testing is caused by a change in policy & freeing up money: 5.9 Billion SEK
The Swedes were fed up constantly being criticised for their approach and being compared to DK, NOR & FIN by "Told you so''-fucktwats

Sweden now is testing current infections AND previous infections
(anti-body testing)
These are added up causing the spike we see now.



Covid-19 mortality is steadyly decling (as it is is all other countries where Corona hit at the same time)

Sweden
USA
Germany
Denmark

Italy
the Netherlands
UK


Excess Mortality Rates in the EU have dropped back to or even below normal.
See how well Sweden is doing compared to e.g. the UK.

https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps

(Scroll down for individual countries)

Nevermind

[Edited 6/30/20 4:25am]

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Reply #235 posted 06/30/20 6:14am

TweetyV6

avatar

IanRG said:

TweetyV6 said:


Man, oh man...

Yes, data of this week will change in the coming 2-3 weeks. But not significantly. The changes are too little to dismiss the displayed trend.

Change the dates in the link and see how little the values per column change over time.
The currently predicted 48,100 may become 51,000 but certainly NOT 55,000 or higher

rolleyes rolleyes rolleyes

.

[Edited 6/30/20 2:32am]

.

Try again - they flagged all the weeks that are above the normal line as potentially incomplete, not just the last week - they say all these figures could change. Yet you imagine you can guess what the real figure for the latest week will be.

.

If this was a graph put up to show something with which you disagree, we all know you would go berko on the clear and obvious error here.


Realy?
Damn it... how stupid can one be?

The disclaimer says that the reporing is lagging. Only 60% of the expected reports arrives on time.
The 40% due will come later, but they don't give an indication how much later.
If you scroll back in time you see that the figures stabilse after 3-4 weeks.

BUT

If you look at other sections of the page, you see that they correct for that.
I guess based on their experience with reporting timeliness, they predict the final figure from the 60% on time reports and correct that when time progresses untill 100% of the reports have been

received.

https://public.tableau.co...cessDeaths

Latest (initial) report for week ending June 13th:
34.466 deaths reported. (so far)

52.708 deaths expected. (when all reports are in)


Latest (1st update from initial) report for week ending June 6th:
47.254 deaths reported. (so far)

52.887 deaths expected.

The week before that:
https://public.tableau.co...cessDeaths

Initial report for week ending June 6th:
38.048 deaths reported. (initially)

52.893 deaths expected.

So the delta between Initial and 1st update report week ending June 6th:
Reported deaths + 9.260 (more reports have been received and processed)
Expected deaths -6


Now go stand in a corner and be deeply ashamed of yourself. lol

The man of science has learned to believe in justification, not by faith, but by verification - Thomas Henry Huxley
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Reply #236 posted 06/30/20 8:00am

maplenpg

TweetyV6 said:

IanRG said:

.

No. This is a logic error. The Rest of Scandinavia (RoS) did more testing per 1 million people to bring their initial spike under control at a much lower level than Sweden and to produce a more rapid reduction in both new cases and daily deaths than Sweden.

.

Sweden is not randomly sampling the population and finding new unexpected cases by the ramp-up in testing. It is the other way round. More people are presenting with potential symptoms, so more people are being tested and confirmed as infected. At the same time, RoS is only now doing less testing because fewer people are presenting with symptoms.

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Or in simple terms: The more testing today is caused by the spike in infections. Now if they did reasonable testing with track and trace aided by a better lockdown, then they could have been as well off as RoS. Or to put this in perspective Sweden is 5th worst in the world currently in terms of deaths per million population and Norway is 40th worst. Total deaths in Sweden are an order of magnitude higher than Norway times 2.


The more testing is caused by a change in policy & freeing up money: 5.9 Billion SEK
The Swedes were fed up constantly being criticised for their approach and being compared to DK, NOR & FIN by "Told you so''-fucktwats

Sweden now is testing current infections AND previous infections
(anti-body testing)
These are added up causing the spike we see now.



Covid-19 mortality is steadyly decling (as it is is all other countries where Corona hit at the same time)

Sweden
USA
Germany
Denmark

Italy
the Netherlands
UK


Excess Mortality Rates in the EU have dropped back to or even below normal.
See how well Sweden is doing compared to e.g. the UK.

https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps

(Scroll down for individual countries)

I can only discuss the UK excess mortality rates, because it is the only country I can claim to really be knowledgeable about and I've become a little bit obsessed with death actuaries.

But in the UK we also have our first week where the total deaths from all causes (including Covid) is below the 5 year average. According to the people that actually study these things professionally it is due to a trending of below average deaths from non-covid causes all year. In the UK non-covid deaths ran at about 95% of the 5 year average from Jan-Mar and this largely remained the same through Apr-Jun. Therefore once Covid deaths hit less than 5% of the 5 year average (in the UK case we had just under 800 Covid deaths last week) then the excess deaths will run at just below average.

But, even though I agree that excess death are now below average, I don't see your point. We have a highly contagious virus still present in our society which, at present, for a number of reasons (lockdowns, distancing, masks, PPE, climate etc...) is mostly decreasing (in Europe anyhow). That is good. From everything I have read, and I've read a lot recently, we have to quash the virus as much as humanely possible before the autumn, when flu season starts, and when prime spreading conditions will again arise. So it is good the excess deaths are lower than average now. It is good that most countries are getting on top of the virus, but we should not be complacent. If the UK does not reduce its cases and deaths by autumn, then according to the experts, we're in for a hell of a second wave come winter.


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Reply #237 posted 06/30/20 8:04am

maplenpg

Also, if anyone is interested in death actuaries, I highly recommend the Friday bulletin by this group who study them professionally. https://www.covid-arg.com/

EDIT to add the blurb from the site:

Every week, more is written on COVID-19 than any individual could possibly read. Collectively, the COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group read more about the outbreak than most, so we’ve decided each Friday to provide you with a curated list of the key papers and articles that we’ve looked at recently.

[Edited 6/30/20 8:05am]

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Reply #238 posted 06/30/20 10:04am

DiminutiveRock
er

avatar

IanRG said:

TweetyV6 said:


Excess Deaths in the US are back to (actually below) normal:


https://public.tableau.com/views/COVID_excess_mort_withcauses_06242020/WeeklyExcessDeaths?:embed=y&:jsdebug=y&:toolbar=n&:tabs=n&:display_count=n&:origin=viz_share_link

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You have pulled another tweety.

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Read the note on the later figures - I will make it easy: It states that they are incomplete with only 60% of figures supplied within the 10 days after the end of the week and completeness varies by jurisdiction. This note is on all the Covid19 era results.

falloff

VOTE....EARLY
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Reply #239 posted 06/30/20 10:16am

DiminutiveRock
er

avatar

neutral

BREAKING NEWS

Dr. Anthony Fauci warned ...testimony.

Tuesday, June 30, 2020 12:57 PM EST

Skepticism of vaccines came up repeatedly at the hearing, which was framed as an update on the safety of returning to school. “I think it’s very important that we have an integrated plan for this vaccine,” Dr. Robert R. Redfield, the director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, told the Senate’s health and education committee.

He added that the plan could be released in the coming weeks.

Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, the nation’s top infectious disease expert, warned Tuesday that the number of new infections in the United States could more than double to 100,000 a day if the country fails to contain the surge that is now underway in many states.

He noted that the recent sharp rise in cases, largely in the South and the West, “puts the entire country at risk.”

“We are now having 40-plus thousand new cases a day,” Dr. Fauci said. “I would not be surprised if we go up to 100,000 a day if this does not turn around. And so I am very concerned.”

Dr. Fauci made the stark warning at a Senate hearing on Tuesday where health officials spoke about the need to reassure people about the safety of vaccines. Dr. Robert R. Redfield, the director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, told Senate lawmakers that the agency had spent around three months developing a plan to rebuild “vaccine confidence,” an attempt to win over a large slice of Americans still hesitant about inoculation.

“It is a reality: a lack of trust of authority, a lack of trust in government, and a concern about vaccines in general,” Dr. Fauci said. He added that there need to be “boots on the ground,” especially near minority communities that he said “have not always been treated fairly by the government.”



mail?url=https%3A%2F%2Fstatic01.nyt.com%2Fimages%2F2020%2F06%2F30%2Fmultimedia%2F30-MORNING-STATECASES%2F30-MORNING-STATECASES-articleLarge.png&t=1593536178&ymreqid=44505f49-512e-ebb7-1c8d-d8043701fa00&sig=pEhCOjWHz4F_4ALiGNTpLA--~D






[Edited 6/30/20 10:31am]

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