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Thread started 05/04/20 10:46am

cborgman

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Coronavirus deaths projected to hit 3,000 per day by June

Coronavirus deaths projected to hit 3,000 per day by June, internal Trump administration analysis says

PUBLISHED MON, MAY 4 2020 12:35 PM EDT UPDATED 9 MIN AGO

An analysis prepared by several Trump administration departments projects that the number of coronavirus deaths will increase to about 3,000 each day by early June, The New York Times reported Monday, citing an internal report.

The interagency report from the U.S. departments of Homeland Security, and Health and Human Services, also reportedly forecasts that the U.S. will see about 200,000 new Covid-19 cases each day by the end of this month.


The sobering projections come as President Donald Trump has pushed to start reopening the country, and expressed support for protesters against state restrictions on businesses and social gatherings in the face of the coronavirus outbreak.

[...]

well.. fuck.

this president has completely and totally fucked us. thanks, right wingers


.

[Edited 5/4/20 10:56am]

bye felicia!
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Reply #1 posted 05/04/20 10:57am

13cjk13

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cborgman said:

Coronavirus deaths projected to hit 3,000 per day by June, internal Trump administration analysis says

PUBLISHED MON, MAY 4 2020 12:35 PM EDT UPDATED 9 MIN AGO

An analysis prepared by several Trump administration departments projects that the number of coronavirus deaths will increase to about 3,000 each day by early June, The New York Times reported Monday, citing an internal report.

The interagency report from the U.S. departments of Homeland Security, and Health and Human Services, also reportedly forecasts that the U.S. will see about 200,000 new Covid-19 cases each day by the end of this month.


The sobering projections come as President Donald Trump has pushed to start reopening the country, and expressed support for protesters against state restrictions on businesses and social gatherings in the face of the coronavirus outbreak.

[...]

well.. fuck.

this president has completely and totally fucked us. thanks, right wingers


.

[Edited 5/4/20 10:56am]

Sounds super mild, as pandemics go. eek .Thanks Trump.

"hey if you found out someone gave you a fake $20 would you be mad?"
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Reply #2 posted 05/04/20 10:58am

cborgman

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13cjk13 said:

cborgman said:

Coronavirus deaths projected to hit 3,000 per day by June, internal Trump administration analysis says

PUBLISHED MON, MAY 4 2020 12:35 PM EDT UPDATED 9 MIN AGO

An analysis prepared by several Trump administration departments projects that the number of coronavirus deaths will increase to about 3,000 each day by early June, The New York Times reported Monday, citing an internal report.

The interagency report from the U.S. departments of Homeland Security, and Health and Human Services, also reportedly forecasts that the U.S. will see about 200,000 new Covid-19 cases each day by the end of this month.


The sobering projections come as President Donald Trump has pushed to start reopening the country, and expressed support for protesters against state restrictions on businesses and social gatherings in the face of the coronavirus outbreak.

[...]

well.. fuck.

this president has completely and totally fucked us. thanks, right wingers


.

[Edited 5/4/20 10:56am]

Sounds super mild, as pandemics go. eek .Thanks Trump.

a 9/11 a day.

bye felicia!
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Reply #3 posted 05/04/20 11:11am

cborgman

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or to put it in right wing: 750 benghazis a day.

bye felicia!
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Reply #4 posted 05/04/20 11:57am

maplenpg

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Genuinely, this is startling, especially when most other countries are talking about being 'past the peak' (I'm not so sure, but that's personal opinion). And what is your leader doing? Supporting gun-toting idiots and telling the governor to give them what they want. Supporting an elite bunch of protesting voter 'boaters'. Spreading conspiracies and refusing to wear a mask. Trump truly is going to have blood all over his chumpy little hands. Frankly, I cannot wrap my head around anyone who votes for him after this. I wish every Republican would stop trying to score points against 'the other side' and demand a better leader for their party - maybe one that actually gave a shit.

The second and third wave of the Spanish flu were far worse than the first wave.
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Reply #5 posted 05/05/20 4:45am

2elijah

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cborgman said:








Coronavirus deaths projected to hit 3,000 per day by June, internal Trump administration analysis says



PUBLISHED MON, MAY 4 2020 12:35 PM EDT UPDATED 9 MIN AGO














An analysis prepared by several Trump administration departments projects that the number of coronavirus deaths will increase to about 3,000 each day by early June, The New York Times reported Monday, citing an internal report.


The interagency report from the U.S. departments of Homeland Security, and Health and Human Services, also reportedly forecasts that the U.S. will see about 200,000 new Covid-19 cases each day by the end of this month.



The sobering projections come as President Donald Trump has pushed to start reopening the country, and expressed support for protesters against state restrictions on businesses and social gatherings in the face of the coronavirus outbreak.




[...]

well.. fuck.

this president has completely and totally fucked us. thanks, right wingers


.






[Edited 5/4/20 10:56am]


Voters have to be smart this time around and vote that deranged animal out of office.
popcorn
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Reply #6 posted 05/05/20 10:21am

cborgman

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bye felicia!
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Reply #7 posted 05/07/20 2:12pm

13cjk13

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SWEDEN'S CORONAVIRUS DEATH TOLL 'HORRIFYING' SAYS SCIENTIST BEHIND COUNTRY'S ANTI-LOCKDOWN STRATEGY

Source: Newsweek

No. The Sweden model didn't work Trumpers. It's a colossal failure and now they are paying the price.

Read more: https://www.newsweek.com/...wn-1502548

"hey if you found out someone gave you a fake $20 would you be mad?"
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Reply #8 posted 05/07/20 2:42pm

DiminutiveRock
er

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13cjk13 said:

SWEDEN'S CORONAVIRUS DEATH TOLL 'HORRIFYING' SAYS SCIENTIST BEHIND COUNTRY'S ANTI-LOCKDOWN STRATEGY

Source: Newsweek

No. The Sweden model didn't work Trumpers. It's a colossal failure and now they are paying the price.

Read more: https://www.newsweek.com/...wn-1502548




excited I hope there's a graph!

Misinformation Kills
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Reply #9 posted 05/07/20 2:44pm

DiminutiveRock
er

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13cjk13 said:

SWEDEN'S CORONAVIRUS DEATH TOLL 'HORRIFYING' SAYS SCIENTIST BEHIND COUNTRY'S ANTI-LOCKDOWN STRATEGY

Source: Newsweek

No. The Sweden model didn't work Trumpers. It's a colossal failure and now they are paying the price.

Read more: https://www.newsweek.com/...wn-1502548



Misinformation Kills
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Reply #10 posted 05/07/20 2:45pm

13cjk13

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DiminutiveRocker said:

13cjk13 said:

SWEDEN'S CORONAVIRUS DEATH TOLL 'HORRIFYING' SAYS SCIENTIST BEHIND COUNTRY'S ANTI-LOCKDOWN STRATEGY

Source: Newsweek

No. The Sweden model didn't work Trumpers. It's a colossal failure and now they are paying the price.

Read more: https://www.newsweek.com/...wn-1502548




excited I hope there's a graph!

Oh I'm sure there will be a humdinger of a graph, unintelligible as usual lol

"hey if you found out someone gave you a fake $20 would you be mad?"
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Reply #11 posted 05/07/20 2:45pm

DiminutiveRock
er

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2elijah said:

cborgman said:

Coronavirus deaths projected to hit 3,000 per day by June, internal Trump administration analysis says

PUBLISHED MON, MAY 4 2020 12:35 PM EDT UPDATED 9 MIN AGO

An analysis prepared by several Trump administration departments projects that the number of coronavirus deaths will increase to about 3,000 each day by early June, The New York Times reported Monday, citing an internal report.

The interagency report from the U.S. departments of Homeland Security, and Health and Human Services, also reportedly forecasts that the U.S. will see about 200,000 new Covid-19 cases each day by the end of this month.


The sobering projections come as President Donald Trump has pushed to start reopening the country, and expressed support for protesters against state restrictions on businesses and social gatherings in the face of the coronavirus outbreak.

[...]

well.. fuck.

this president has completely and totally fucked us. thanks, right wingers


.

[Edited 5/4/20 10:56am]

Voters have to be smart this time around and vote that deranged animal out of office.



This MUST happen.

Misinformation Kills
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Reply #12 posted 05/10/20 10:47am

benni

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LA Times had an interesting article from May 5th: https://www.latimes.com/c...n-original


Scientists have identified a new strain of the coronavirus that has become dominant worldwide and appears to be more contagious than the versions that spread in the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic, according to a new study led by scientists at Los Alamos National Laboratory.

The new strain appeared in February in Europe, migrated quickly to the East Coast of the United States and has been the dominant strain across the world since mid-March, the scientists wrote.

In addition to spreading faster, it may make people vulnerable to a second infection after a first bout with the disease, the report warned.

The 33-page report was posted Thursday on BioRxiv, a website that researchers use to share their work before it is peer-reviewed, an effort to speed up collaborations with scientists working on COVID-19 vaccines or treatments. That research has been largely based on the genetic sequence of earlier strains and might not be effective against the new one.


Trump: "It was hard to get it aroused and it is hard to get it aroused but we got it aroused."
[narrator voice] He's talking about the "American way."
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Reply #13 posted 05/11/20 2:48am

TweetyV6

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DiminutiveRocker said:

13cjk13 said:

SWEDEN'S CORONAVIRUS DEATH TOLL 'HORRIFYING' SAYS SCIENTIST BEHIND COUNTRY'S ANTI-LOCKDOWN STRATEGY

Source: Newsweek

No. The Sweden model didn't work Trumpers. It's a colossal failure and now they are paying the price.

Read more: https://www.newsweek.com/...wn-1502548




excited I hope there's a graph!


Here's Anders Tegnell showing one especially for you:




This is what Anders Tagnell is saying:

There is a backlog in the reporting of deaths in covid-19, is a message that the Public Health Agency has repeated.

So also on Sunday. Five new deaths were reported at the daily update at 2 p.m.

- This just shows what we have been saying all along, that the daily figures are meaningless. You have to look further back in time to get a sense of how the death figures actually manifest themselves, ” Anders Tegnell told TV4 News.

The spread is reduced

The state epidemiologist stated that the average death rate is 70-75 per day, but "has shown a very clear declining trend" over the past two weeks.

In the Public Health Authority's latest weekly report , almost all surveillance systems on the spread in Sweden indicate a decrease. The number of people admitted for intensive care is also reported to decrease. However, no estimates are made on the trend of the number of deaths in covid-19.

Anders Tegnell says that there has been a very clear declining trend in recent weeks.
PHOTO: JERKER IVARSSON
Anders Tegnell says that there has been a very clear declining trend in recent weeks.

To TT, Anders Tegnell says that the generally positive message increases the likelihood of the spread of the virus slowing down this summer.

- It is our assessment that it will be so. Our models look that way, immunity seems to increase rapidly in large sections of the population and it gets warmer, which means that you are more out in the environment where the virus thrives and spreads worse, says Anders Tegnell.


Source: Aftonbladet

W
hat Newsweek does, is cherry picking. Taking a couple of words out of the context of the sentence/message and makes misleading headlines with it.

The original article Newsweek referrs to is pay-walled. But you can find Tagnell's story when you google on "Tagnell 3000 dödar" and run the non-paywalled news articles through google translate. E.g. at "Dagens Nyheter"

The man of science has learned to believe in justification, not by faith, but by verification - Thomas Henry Huxley
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Reply #14 posted 05/11/20 3:36am

IanRG

TweetyV6 said:

DiminutiveRocker said:


Here's Anders Tegnell showing one especially for you:




This is what Anders Tagnell is saying:

There is a backlog in the reporting of deaths in covid-19, is a message that the Public Health Agency has repeated.

So also on Sunday. Five new deaths were reported at the daily update at 2 p.m.

- This just shows what we have been saying all along, that the daily figures are meaningless. You have to look further back in time to get a sense of how the death figures actually manifest themselves, ” Anders Tegnell told TV4 News.

The spread is reduced

The state epidemiologist stated that the average death rate is 70-75 per day, but "has shown a very clear declining trend" over the past two weeks.

In the Public Health Authority's latest weekly report , almost all surveillance systems on the spread in Sweden indicate a decrease. The number of people admitted for intensive care is also reported to decrease. However, no estimates are made on the trend of the number of deaths in covid-19.

Anders Tegnell says that there has been a very clear declining trend in recent weeks.
PHOTO: JERKER IVARSSON
Anders Tegnell says that there has been a very clear declining trend in recent weeks.

To TT, Anders Tegnell says that the generally positive message increases the likelihood of the spread of the virus slowing down this summer.

- It is our assessment that it will be so. Our models look that way, immunity seems to increase rapidly in large sections of the population and it gets warmer, which means that you are more out in the environment where the virus thrives and spreads worse, says Anders Tegnell.


Source: Aftonbladet

W
hat Newsweek does, is cherry picking. Taking a couple of words out of the context of the sentence/message and makes misleading headlines with it.

The original article Newsweek referrs to is pay-walled. But you can find Tagnell's story when you google on "Tagnell 3000 dödar" and run the non-paywalled news articles through google translate. E.g. at "Dagens Nyheter"

.

It still does not work.

.

Using your 7 day average method, Norway peaked at 8.7 deaths per day 14 days earlier than Sweden. It is 17 days since Sweden's peak 7 day average of 97.3 deaths per day. Sweden has only fallen to 78% of the its peak. Norway 17 days after its peak was down to 59% and is now at 13.1% of its peak. Australia was down to 34% by day 17 and is now at 6.2% and New Zealand down to 22% by day 17 and is now at 11.1% of their peaks - All reaching their peaks long before Sweden did. The UK is failing but it was at 73% by 17 days after its peak and is now down to 57.2%.

.

Sure Sweden is declining - But its tactic has meant that its peak was much higher and its decline is slower. The area under Sweden's curve is much worse - And to put this in perspective this area is not just a mathematic model outcome, it is people killed.

.

You talk about selectively quoting but you quote a part figure for Sunday and not the Friday before it. Why? The daily rate that day was the 4th highest deaths per day and was 135 and it pushed the daily deaths average back up to the high 70s.

.

The problem is the deaths per day is a lag measure that follows after the new cases per day. As of yesterday, the 7 day average new cases per day has been rising over the last 6 days and is back up to 92% of the peak. The UK is at 84% new cases, USA is at 82%, Norway 15%, Australia 7% and New Zealand 1.5%.

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Reply #15 posted 05/15/20 6:03am

IanRG

Given that Sweden has paid for its stance with an infection rate that is 4.9 times the world average and a death rate of almost 9 times the world average, what has it gained?

.

The argument that its economy will be better off because it shut down less may not live up to expectations. The latest EU forcasts released this month do not show Sweden as standing out as ultimately less effected economically - It will initially be less effected than all but 6 EU countries by the end of 2020 but the forecast 2021 recovery has Sweden's recovery forecast to be the 4th worst in the EU. By the end of 2021, Sweden is forecast to be 20th out of 27 on the path back to pre-Covid19 levels.

[Edited 5/15/20 18:52pm]

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