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Reply #930 posted 05/18/20 12:35pm

guitarslinger4
4

avatar

Ottensen said:

What these idiots should be protesting is lack of testing and tracing. You have no starting point to plan a proper opening if you don't have a handle on what your numbers are, or how to separate the infirmed and work and on containment. The US should look to other countries that have successfully instituted nationwide testing and do it for their own citizens; they have no clarity on the scope of the spread, and until they do, it's going to be one false start after another with more chaos and death that could have been prevented. The fact that the Trump administration flat out refuses to organize and introduce nationwide testing is shocking; it comes off as him giving a middle finger to the idea of protecting the American people and frankly, I hope that all front line workers and families affected by this pandemic will remember just how much he cared come November.



Okay, but what does that look like though? We already know we don't have enough tests, so even if he wanted to institute a national test, how would Trump even be able to do that considering there arent' enough to begin with, and that some show false positives and would let positive people slip through the cracks? Tracing works at a micro level, but we have states that are bigger than any country in the EU so what works in Germany isn't going to work in Texas unless they start tracing down at the local level.

This has been a colossal fuck up at every level. The federal government has bungled informing people and not having the gear to deal with it, state governments are either doing not enough or way too much, with guidelines being hilariously inconsistent, and the WHO has been shown to be a bureaucratic disaster and is now kowtowing to China since China offered to help make up the budget deficit since Trump rightly froze the rest of the money they were supposed to get from us.

As for the protesters, I think most of them are doing this in an idiotic way, but I understand their frustration. Some of these people are going to lose their homes, businesses, even lives because the best plans that are being floated are "We're going to wait and see and keep looking at the numbers" when we've already established that we don't have a way of getting reliable numbers. The numbers we DO see in regards to deaths are concentrated among older sicker people with a few exceptions, and at least where I am, the number of recoveries makes it seem like most people have a better chance of recovering than dying especially if they aren't obese, don't have underlying conditions, and don't have nutritional deficiencies.

But don't get me wrong, this is fucked up at all levels and a lot of our institutions need an enema for sure.

[Edited 5/18/20 12:37pm]

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Reply #931 posted 05/18/20 12:39pm

poppys

DiminutiveRocker said:

poppys said:


The PR battle is now between take your chances or "the economy". Testing is never going to happen the way it should to keep us safe. We are being forced to choose "house arrest" over "freedom". Even my Trumper neighbor who was terrified of the virus 6 weeks ago (buying up beaucoup crazy "remedies", taking his temp literally every 5 mins), has suddenly become a fatalist. Yesterday he told me people are gonna die, that's the way it is.


Well, what these kind of people don't know is that opening up quickly does not necessarily mean the economy is going to bounce back up to where it was. If the infected numbers start to rise again and the hospitals become overwhelmed, especially with the offshoot of the virus that is affecting children... well, then god speed to all of us. neutral


Agree, but stupid people are prevailing. I won't be "opening up" because it's not safe. Maybe ever, ugh. It's going to be medical and societal chaos for a long time because there is no plan.

"if you can't clap on the one, then don't clap at all"
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Reply #932 posted 05/18/20 12:43pm

DiminutiveRock
er

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guitarslinger44 said:

Ottensen said:

What these idiots should be protesting is lack of testing and tracing. You have no starting point to plan a proper opening if you don't have a handle on what your numbers are, or how to separate the infirmed and work and on containment. The US should look to other countries that have successfully instituted nationwide testing and do it for their own citizens; they have no clarity on the scope of the spread, and until they do, it's going to be one false start after another with more chaos and death that could have been prevented. The fact that the Trump administration flat out refuses to organize and introduce nationwide testing is shocking; it comes off as him giving a middle finger to the idea of protecting the American people and frankly, I hope that all front line workers and families affected by this pandemic will remember just how much he cared come November.



Okay, but what does that look like though? We already know we don't have enough tests, so even if he wanted to institute a national test, how would Trump even be able to do that considering there arent' enough to begin with, and that some show false positives and would let positive people slip through the cracks? Tracing works at a micro level, but we have states that are bigger than any country in the EU so what works in Germany isn't going to work in Texas unless they start tracing down at the local level.

This has been a colossal fuck up at every level. The federal government has bungled informing people and not having the gear to deal with it, state governments are either doing not enough or way too much, the WHO has been shown to be a bureaucratic disaster and is now kowtowing to China since China offered to help make up the budget deficit since Trump rightly froze the rest of the money they were supposed to get from us.

As for the protesters, I think most of them are doing this in an idiotic way, but I understand their frustration. Some of these people are going to lose their homes, businesses, even lives because the best plans that are being floated are "We're going to wait and see and keep looking at the numbers" when we've already established that we don't have a way of getting reliable numbers. The numbers we DO see in regards to deaths are concentrated among older sicker people with a few exceptions, and at least where I am, the number of recoveries makes it seem like most people have a better chance of recovering than dying especially if they aren't obese, don't have underlying conditions, and don't have nutritional deficiencies.

But don't get me wrong, this is fucked up at all levels and a lot of our institutions need an enema for sure.

Among many things, trump should have used the Defense Production Act to get as many tests and PPE out there as possible - make more than enough to insure complete coverage. He still could, even this late in the game, but he refuses to do it. He wants the numbers and ALL statistics to stay low so that people will not think this virus is as bad as it seems - that the consequences are a hoax. He wants his base to go back to work, come what may. Even if it means the death of loved ones. And if this off-shoot covid-related illness of children that is popping up all over the country gets worse - well, then god help us.








[Edited 5/18/20 12:43pm]

"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, the world will know peace." - Jimi Hendrix
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Reply #933 posted 05/18/20 1:56pm

jjhunsecker

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DiminutiveRocker said:

guitarslinger44 said:



Okay, but what does that look like though? We already know we don't have enough tests, so even if he wanted to institute a national test, how would Trump even be able to do that considering there arent' enough to begin with, and that some show false positives and would let positive people slip through the cracks? Tracing works at a micro level, but we have states that are bigger than any country in the EU so what works in Germany isn't going to work in Texas unless they start tracing down at the local level.

This has been a colossal fuck up at every level. The federal government has bungled informing people and not having the gear to deal with it, state governments are either doing not enough or way too much, the WHO has been shown to be a bureaucratic disaster and is now kowtowing to China since China offered to help make up the budget deficit since Trump rightly froze the rest of the money they were supposed to get from us.

As for the protesters, I think most of them are doing this in an idiotic way, but I understand their frustration. Some of these people are going to lose their homes, businesses, even lives because the best plans that are being floated are "We're going to wait and see and keep looking at the numbers" when we've already established that we don't have a way of getting reliable numbers. The numbers we DO see in regards to deaths are concentrated among older sicker people with a few exceptions, and at least where I am, the number of recoveries makes it seem like most people have a better chance of recovering than dying especially if they aren't obese, don't have underlying conditions, and don't have nutritional deficiencies.

But don't get me wrong, this is fucked up at all levels and a lot of our institutions need an enema for sure.

Among many things, trump should have used the Defense Production Act to get as many tests and PPE out there as possible - make more than enough to insure complete coverage. He still could, even this late in the game, but he refuses to do it. He wants the numbers and ALL statistics to stay low so that people will not think this virus is as bad as it seems - that the consequences are a hoax. He wants his base to go back to work, come what may. Even if it means the death of loved ones. And if this off-shoot covid-related illness of children that is popping up all over the country gets worse - well, then god help us.








[Edited 5/18/20 12:43pm]

Plus , the Trump team threw out the pandemic Preparedness documents created by Obama's staff, well because...it was created by Obama and his people

https://www.pbs.org/newsh...ls-confirm" target="_blank">https://www.pbs.org/newsh...ls-confirm

#SOCIETYDEFINESU
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Reply #934 posted 05/18/20 2:02pm

jjhunsecker

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Obama warned in 2014 of the destructive nature of a possible pandemic, and the need to prepare, but (of course), repblicans would not fund it

https://www.ajc.com/news/...T5uPqtqpI/" target="_blank">https://www.ajc.com/news/...T5uPqtqpI/

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Reply #935 posted 05/18/20 3:15pm

DiminutiveRock
er

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jjhunsecker said:

Obama warned in 2014 of the destructive nature of a possible pandemic, and the need to prepare, but (of course), repblicans would not fund it

https://www.ajc.com/news/...T5uPqtqpI/" target="_blank">https://www.ajc.com/news/...T5uPqtqpI/

YES! EVen W warned of a global pandemic. Only this current dumbass president didn't heed the warnings and instead disbanded the comission that was in place.

I can't talk to the hand

"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, the world will know peace." - Jimi Hendrix
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Reply #936 posted 05/19/20 3:39am

2elijah

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DiminutiveRocker said:



jjhunsecker said:


Obama warned in 2014 of the destructive nature of a possible pandemic, and the need to prepare, but (of course), repblicans would not fund it



https://www.ajc.com/news/...T5uPqtqpI/" target="_blank">https://www.ajc.com/news/...T5uPqtqpI/




YES! EVen W warned of a global pandemic. Only this current dumbass president didn't heed the warnings and instead disbanded the comission that was in place.



I can't talk to the hand



Agree w/both of you. He will never admit he was wrong in doing so.
Always smile in the face of adversity. smile
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Reply #937 posted 05/19/20 2:05pm

guitarslinger4
4

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jjhunsecker said:

Obama warned in 2014 of the destructive nature of a possible pandemic, and the need to prepare, but (of course), repblicans would not fund it

https://www.ajc.com/news/...T5uPqtqpI/" target="_blank">https://www.ajc.com/news/...T5uPqtqpI/



I skimmed through the playbook that was linked in the article DR posted and while I think we'd definitely be in better shape than we are now, it's hard to say how much. A lot of what I read seemed contingent on the source of the virus being a country we had a good relationship with and taking preventative measures.

Being in that we have a not great relationship with China and that their shitty government tried to cover the whole thing up because "LOL honor" really screwed the rest of the world made it harder to take preventative measures. They wouldn't let any officials in, refused to cooperate on every level, and deliberately hid numbers to make it look like they had a handle on it when they clearly don't. WE'd have been a lot further ahead on it if they'd cooperated, but moreso if they had listened to the doctors telling them there was a problem in the first place rather than disappearing them. So I don't know how much the playbook would have actually helped given all that. Still would have been better to have it than what we have now though.

[Edited 5/19/20 14:06pm]

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Reply #938 posted 05/19/20 2:44pm

IanRG

guitarslinger44 said:

jjhunsecker said:

Obama warned in 2014 of the destructive nature of a possible pandemic, and the need to prepare, but (of course), repblicans would not fund it

https://www.ajc.com/news/...T5uPqtqpI/" target="_blank">https://www.ajc.com/news/...T5uPqtqpI/



I skimmed through the playbook that was linked in the article DR posted and while I think we'd definitely be in better shape than we are now, it's hard to say how much. A lot of what I read seemed contingent on the source of the virus being a country we had a good relationship with and taking preventative measures.

Being in that we have a not great relationship with China and that their shitty government tried to cover the whole thing up because "LOL honor" really screwed the rest of the world made it harder to take preventative measures. They wouldn't let any officials in, refused to cooperate on every level, and deliberately hid numbers to make it look like they had a handle on it when they clearly don't. WE'd have been a lot further ahead on it if they'd cooperated, but moreso if they had listened to the doctors telling them there was a problem in the first place rather than disappearing them. So I don't know how much the playbook would have actually helped given all that. Still would have been better to have it than what we have now though.

[Edited 5/19/20 14:06pm]

.

The rest of the world outside of China was in the same position as the USA. THE country with the worst relationship with China in the world is Taiwan. It is also among the best in its handling of CoVid 19.

.

Given we were all dealt the same cards, the differences between the responses by individual countries show how much better the US could have been. Just a small handful of changes and a response from trump that was as quick as the rest of the world (or as Obama previously) and people coming from Europe and China would have been properly isolated much earlier than they were. People who were potentially infected would have been quarantined, tested, tracked and hot spots locked down before the spread was too far out of control. The US would not have shut down critical bodies set up to handle the strong likelihood of a pandemic. Hospital staff would not have had to fabricate substitute PPE. And the world would not be pitying the USA, its death toll, its partisan response and its loss of the greatness built by its people during the terms of the previous 44 presidents.

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Reply #939 posted 05/19/20 2:58pm

poppys

IanRG said:

guitarslinger44 said:

I skimmed through the playbook that was linked in the article DR posted and while I think we'd definitely be in better shape than we are now, it's hard to say how much. A lot of what I read seemed contingent on the source of the virus being a country we had a good relationship with and taking preventative measures.

Being in that we have a not great relationship with China and that their shitty government tried to cover the whole thing up because "LOL honor" really screwed the rest of the world made it harder to take preventative measures. They wouldn't let any officials in, refused to cooperate on every level, and deliberately hid numbers to make it look like they had a handle on it when they clearly don't. WE'd have been a lot further ahead on it if they'd cooperated, but moreso if they had listened to the doctors telling them there was a problem in the first place rather than disappearing them. So I don't know how much the playbook would have actually helped given all that. Still would have been better to have it than what we have now though.

.

The rest of the world outside of China was in the same position as the USA. THE country with the worst relationship with China in the world is Taiwan. It is also among the best in its handling of CoVid 19.

.

Given we were all dealt the same cards, the differences between the responses by individual countries show how much better the US could have been. Just a small handful of changes and a response from trump that was as quick as the rest of the world (or as Obama previously) and people coming from Europe and China would have been properly isolated much earlier than they were. People who were potentially infected would have been quarantined, tested, tracked and hot spots locked down before the spread was too far out of control. The US would not have shut down critical bodies set up to handle the strong likelihood of a pandemic. Hospital staff would not have had to fabricate substitute PPE. And the world would not be pitying the USA, its death toll, its partisan response and its loss of the greatness built by its people during the terms of the previous 44 presidents.


nod https://trumpdeathclock.com/

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Reply #940 posted 05/21/20 9:42am

DiminutiveRock
er

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IanRG said:

guitarslinger44 said:



I skimmed through the playbook that was linked in the article DR posted and while I think we'd definitely be in better shape than we are now, it's hard to say how much. A lot of what I read seemed contingent on the source of the virus being a country we had a good relationship with and taking preventative measures.

Being in that we have a not great relationship with China and that their shitty government tried to cover the whole thing up because "LOL honor" really screwed the rest of the world made it harder to take preventative measures. They wouldn't let any officials in, refused to cooperate on every level, and deliberately hid numbers to make it look like they had a handle on it when they clearly don't. WE'd have been a lot further ahead on it if they'd cooperated, but moreso if they had listened to the doctors telling them there was a problem in the first place rather than disappearing them. So I don't know how much the playbook would have actually helped given all that. Still would have been better to have it than what we have now though.

[Edited 5/19/20 14:06pm]

.

The rest of the world outside of China was in the same position as the USA. THE country with the worst relationship with China in the world is Taiwan. It is also among the best in its handling of CoVid 19.

.

Given we were all dealt the same cards, the differences between the responses by individual countries show how much better the US could have been. Just a small handful of changes and a response from trump that was as quick as the rest of the world (or as Obama previously) and people coming from Europe and China would have been properly isolated much earlier than they were. People who were potentially infected would have been quarantined, tested, tracked and hot spots locked down before the spread was too far out of control. The US would not have shut down critical bodies set up to handle the strong likelihood of a pandemic. Hospital staff would not have had to fabricate substitute PPE. And the world would not be pitying the USA, its death toll, its partisan response and its loss of the greatness built by its people during the terms of the previous 44 presidents.


neutral oh, my god... you're right.

"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, the world will know peace." - Jimi Hendrix
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Reply #941 posted 05/21/20 3:46pm

guitarslinger4
4

avatar

IanRG said:

guitarslinger44 said:



I skimmed through the playbook that was linked in the article DR posted and while I think we'd definitely be in better shape than we are now, it's hard to say how much. A lot of what I read seemed contingent on the source of the virus being a country we had a good relationship with and taking preventative measures.

Being in that we have a not great relationship with China and that their shitty government tried to cover the whole thing up because "LOL honor" really screwed the rest of the world made it harder to take preventative measures. They wouldn't let any officials in, refused to cooperate on every level, and deliberately hid numbers to make it look like they had a handle on it when they clearly don't. WE'd have been a lot further ahead on it if they'd cooperated, but moreso if they had listened to the doctors telling them there was a problem in the first place rather than disappearing them. So I don't know how much the playbook would have actually helped given all that. Still would have been better to have it than what we have now though.

[Edited 5/19/20 14:06pm]

.

The rest of the world outside of China was in the same position as the USA. THE country with the worst relationship with China in the world is Taiwan. It is also among the best in its handling of CoVid 19.

.

Given we were all dealt the same cards, the differences between the responses by individual countries show how much better the US could have been. Just a small handful of changes and a response from trump that was as quick as the rest of the world (or as Obama previously) and people coming from Europe and China would have been properly isolated much earlier than they were. People who were potentially infected would have been quarantined, tested, tracked and hot spots locked down before the spread was too far out of control. The US would not have shut down critical bodies set up to handle the strong likelihood of a pandemic. Hospital staff would not have had to fabricate substitute PPE. And the world would not be pitying the USA, its death toll, its partisan response and its loss of the greatness built by its people during the terms of the previous 44 presidents.



Yes and no. Everyone was in the same boat in that they got fucked by the CCP's inaction and coverup but there are systemic, legal, and logistical reasons why some countries are able to respond in certain ways and others aren't. I won't try to argue that the US response couldn't have been better, but a response akin to Taiwan's would have been impossible for most countries, especially western ones with bigger populations.

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Reply #942 posted 05/21/20 4:17pm

DiminutiveRock
er

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If by a better response, you mean inaction that cost lives.



By the final days of February, many public health experts were sounding the alarm about the coronavirus, and some people were listening.

In the San Francisco area, major employers began directing their employees to stay home. Washington State declared a state of emergency. South Korea, Vietnam and other countries ordered aggressive measures. President Trump did not.

On Feb. 26, he said — incorrectly — that the number of cases was “going very substantially down, not up.” As late as March 10, he promised: “It will go away. Just stay calm. It will go away.” Some local leaders also continued to urge business as usual.

In early March, Mayor Bill de Blasio told New Yorkers to “get out on the town despite coronavirus.” This kind of advice appears to have cost tens of thousands of American lives, according to a new analysis by researchers at Columbia University. If the U.S. had enacted social-distancing measures a week earlier than it did — in early March rather than mid-March — about 36,000 fewer Americans would have died, the study found. That’s more than one third of the current death toll, which is about 100,000. If the measures had been in place two weeks earlier, on March 1, the death toll would be 54,000 lower. These are hypothetical estimates, of course, and they’re unavoidably imprecise. But they are consistent with real-world evidence from places that responded to the virus more quickly, including San Francisco, Washington State, South Korea and Vietnam — where per capita deaths have been much lower than the U.S. average.

Jeffrey Shaman, the leader of the Columbia research team, told The Times: “It’s a big, big difference. That small moment in time, catching it in that growth phase, is incredibly critical in reducing the number of deaths.” Related: Trump and some top White House officials are arguing that the reported virus death toll is overstated, The Times reports. Public health experts overwhelmingly reject this view. A simple way to understand why experts believe the official count is actually understated: The number of Americans who have died in recent weeks is much higher than normal.




[Edited 5/21/20 16:17pm]

"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, the world will know peace." - Jimi Hendrix
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Reply #943 posted 05/21/20 6:20pm

IanRG

guitarslinger44 said:

IanRG said:

.

The rest of the world outside of China was in the same position as the USA. THE country with the worst relationship with China in the world is Taiwan. It is also among the best in its handling of CoVid 19.

.

Given we were all dealt the same cards, the differences between the responses by individual countries show how much better the US could have been. Just a small handful of changes and a response from trump that was as quick as the rest of the world (or as Obama previously) and people coming from Europe and China would have been properly isolated much earlier than they were. People who were potentially infected would have been quarantined, tested, tracked and hot spots locked down before the spread was too far out of control. The US would not have shut down critical bodies set up to handle the strong likelihood of a pandemic. Hospital staff would not have had to fabricate substitute PPE. And the world would not be pitying the USA, its death toll, its partisan response and its loss of the greatness built by its people during the terms of the previous 44 presidents.



Yes and no. Everyone was in the same boat in that they got fucked by the CCP's inaction and coverup but there are systemic, legal, and logistical reasons why some countries are able to respond in certain ways and others aren't. I won't try to argue that the US response couldn't have been better, but a response akin to Taiwan's would have been impossible for most countries, especially western ones with bigger populations.

.

The only reason I raised Taiwan's vastly superior response was because you raised that one of the reasons the US response was poor was as a result of its bad relationship with China. This argument fails in the face of the FAR worse relationship that Taiwan has with China. Taiwan is not allowed to have its existence even recognised because of China. Unfortunately for the USA, I could have chosen so many other countries as an example - All have a better relationship with China than Taiwan and almost all are doing better than trump's mismanagement.

.

trump lost control of this pandemic in the US long before the size of the uninfected population became a factor. trump's failure is not a failure to emulate Taiwan. trump's failure is in his lack of effective and timely response in late Jan to mid-Feb. By this stage, everyone knew enough to do more than trump did and most countries bigger than the USA and smaller than the USA did better and quicker than trump did. trump killed people by his inaction, his obstruction, his politicising, his support for those protesting against the people seeking to save lives. China bears responsibility for the start, but trump is were the buck stops in the USA soon after.

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Reply #944 posted 05/22/20 6:23am

poppys

It's China's fault! It's China's fault! lol That's what Trumpers love. With him, EVERYTHING is someone else's fault.

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Reply #945 posted 05/22/20 1:58pm

jjhunsecker

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[url]https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/05/21/860077940/u-s-could-have-saved-36-000-lives-if-social-distancing-started-1-week-earlier-st{/url]



"The U.S. could have prevented roughly 36,000 deaths from COVID-19 if broad social distancing measures had been put in place just one week earlier in March, according to an analysis from Columbia University.

Underlining the importance of aggressively responding to the coronavirus, the study found the U.S. could have avoided at least 700,000 fewer infections if actions that began on March 15 had actually started on March 8.

The U.S. currently has more than 1.5 million confirmed COVID-19 cases, and more than 93,000 people have died from the disease, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University."

#SOCIETYDEFINESU
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Reply #946 posted 05/22/20 1:59pm

jjhunsecker

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poppys said:

It's China's fault! It's China's fault! lol That's what Trumpers love. With him, EVERYTHING is someone else's fault.

Trump (and his followers) LOVE to BLAME someone else for their own personal failures and inadequicies

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Reply #947 posted 05/26/20 6:33am

DiminutiveRock
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Meanwhile in Missouri - they are making covid-19 soup:

"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, the world will know peace." - Jimi Hendrix
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Reply #948 posted 05/26/20 12:10pm

guitarslinger4
4

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IanRG said:

guitarslinger44 said:



Yes and no. Everyone was in the same boat in that they got fucked by the CCP's inaction and coverup but there are systemic, legal, and logistical reasons why some countries are able to respond in certain ways and others aren't. I won't try to argue that the US response couldn't have been better, but a response akin to Taiwan's would have been impossible for most countries, especially western ones with bigger populations.

.

The only reason I raised Taiwan's vastly superior response was because you raised that one of the reasons the US response was poor was as a result of its bad relationship with China. This argument fails in the face of the FAR worse relationship that Taiwan has with China. Taiwan is not allowed to have its existence even recognised because of China. Unfortunately for the USA, I could have chosen so many other countries as an example - All have a better relationship with China than Taiwan and almost all are doing better than trump's mismanagement.

.

trump lost control of this pandemic in the US long before the size of the uninfected population became a factor. trump's failure is not a failure to emulate Taiwan. trump's failure is in his lack of effective and timely response in late Jan to mid-Feb. By this stage, everyone knew enough to do more than trump did and most countries bigger than the USA and smaller than the USA did better and quicker than trump did. trump killed people by his inaction, his obstruction, his politicising, his support for those protesting against the people seeking to save lives. China bears responsibility for the start, but trump is were the buck stops in the USA soon after.


The bit about the US relationship to China was in regard to the Obama playbook. Did you read it?

You can blame Trump, but there's enough blame to go around that laying this solely at his feet is ultra shortsighted.

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Reply #949 posted 05/26/20 12:13pm

guitarslinger4
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DiminutiveRocker said:

If by a better response, you mean inaction that cost lives.



By the final days of February, many public health experts were sounding the alarm about the coronavirus, and some people were listening.

In the San Francisco area, major employers began directing their employees to stay home. Washington State declared a state of emergency. South Korea, Vietnam and other countries ordered aggressive measures. President Trump did not.

On Feb. 26, he said — incorrectly — that the number of cases was “going very substantially down, not up.” As late as March 10, he promised: “It will go away. Just stay calm. It will go away.” Some local leaders also continued to urge business as usual.

In early March, Mayor Bill de Blasio told New Yorkers to “get out on the town despite coronavirus.” This kind of advice appears to have cost tens of thousands of American lives, according to a new analysis by researchers at Columbia University. If the U.S. had enacted social-distancing measures a week earlier than it did — in early March rather than mid-March — about 36,000 fewer Americans would have died, the study found. That’s more than one third of the current death toll, which is about 100,000. If the measures had been in place two weeks earlier, on March 1, the death toll would be 54,000 lower. These are hypothetical estimates, of course, and they’re unavoidably imprecise. But they are consistent with real-world evidence from places that responded to the virus more quickly, including San Francisco, Washington State, South Korea and Vietnam — where per capita deaths have been much lower than the U.S. average.

Jeffrey Shaman, the leader of the Columbia research team, told The Times: “It’s a big, big difference. That small moment in time, catching it in that growth phase, is incredibly critical in reducing the number of deaths.” Related: Trump and some top White House officials are arguing that the reported virus death toll is overstated, The Times reports. Public health experts overwhelmingly reject this view. A simple way to understand why experts believe the official count is actually understated: The number of Americans who have died in recent weeks is much higher than normal.




[Edited 5/21/20 16:17pm]



Studies like that aren't helpful though unless they've also invented a time machine that will allow us to go back and change the events that led to those deaths or arm our leaders with knowledge they didn't have at the time.

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Reply #950 posted 05/26/20 2:51pm

IanRG

guitarslinger44 said:

IanRG said:

.

The only reason I raised Taiwan's vastly superior response was because you raised that one of the reasons the US response was poor was as a result of its bad relationship with China. This argument fails in the face of the FAR worse relationship that Taiwan has with China. Taiwan is not allowed to have its existence even recognised because of China. Unfortunately for the USA, I could have chosen so many other countries as an example - All have a better relationship with China than Taiwan and almost all are doing better than trump's mismanagement.

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trump lost control of this pandemic in the US long before the size of the uninfected population became a factor. trump's failure is not a failure to emulate Taiwan. trump's failure is in his lack of effective and timely response in late Jan to mid-Feb. By this stage, everyone knew enough to do more than trump did and most countries bigger than the USA and smaller than the USA did better and quicker than trump did. trump killed people by his inaction, his obstruction, his politicising, his support for those protesting against the people seeking to save lives. China bears responsibility for the start, but trump is were the buck stops in the USA soon after.


The bit about the US relationship to China was in regard to the Obama playbook. Did you read it?

You can blame Trump, but there's enough blame to go around that laying this solely at his feet is ultra shortsighted.

.

You ask if I have read something, but you failed to read that I have already attributed blame to China as the source. There is nothing in JJs link that means what the republicans blocked and what trump removed is not a key reason leading to trump's current failure. And the state of relationships with China simply does not correlate with success or failure in any country's management of this pandemic.

.

I am only attributing blame to trump for trump's abysmal and self inflicted failures. Seeking to overlook all his errors in preparation, response, timing, bad messaging, blame shifting, politicising PPE, lieing etc so as to ignore what is directly at his feet is deliberate blindness.

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Reply #951 posted 05/26/20 2:57pm

IanRG

guitarslinger44 said:

DiminutiveRocker said:

If by a better response, you mean inaction that cost lives.



By the final days of February, many public health experts were sounding the alarm about the coronavirus, and some people were listening.

In the San Francisco area, major employers began directing their employees to stay home. Washington State declared a state of emergency. South Korea, Vietnam and other countries ordered aggressive measures. President Trump did not.

On Feb. 26, he said — incorrectly — that the number of cases was “going very substantially down, not up.” As late as March 10, he promised: “It will go away. Just stay calm. It will go away.” Some local leaders also continued to urge business as usual.

In early March, Mayor Bill de Blasio told New Yorkers to “get out on the town despite coronavirus.” This kind of advice appears to have cost tens of thousands of American lives, according to a new analysis by researchers at Columbia University. If the U.S. had enacted social-distancing measures a week earlier than it did — in early March rather than mid-March — about 36,000 fewer Americans would have died, the study found. That’s more than one third of the current death toll, which is about 100,000. If the measures had been in place two weeks earlier, on March 1, the death toll would be 54,000 lower. These are hypothetical estimates, of course, and they’re unavoidably imprecise. But they are consistent with real-world evidence from places that responded to the virus more quickly, including San Francisco, Washington State, South Korea and Vietnam — where per capita deaths have been much lower than the U.S. average.

Jeffrey Shaman, the leader of the Columbia research team, told The Times: “It’s a big, big difference. That small moment in time, catching it in that growth phase, is incredibly critical in reducing the number of deaths.” Related: Trump and some top White House officials are arguing that the reported virus death toll is overstated, The Times reports. Public health experts overwhelmingly reject this view. A simple way to understand why experts believe the official count is actually understated: The number of Americans who have died in recent weeks is much higher than normal.




[Edited 5/21/20 16:17pm]



Studies like that aren't helpful though unless they've also invented a time machine that will allow us to go back and change the events that led to those deaths or arm our leaders with knowledge they didn't have at the time.

.

Studies like this are helpful in showing where the failures occured so that IN THE FUTURE the same errors are not made. Seeking to ignore studies like this because they look bad for trump is what will kill more people next time.

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Studies like this that are based on comparisions with other countries that responded better and quicker help identify the impact of trump-style failures and provide a warning to everyone about what the impact of his failures has been.

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Reply #952 posted 05/26/20 4:05pm

PennyPurple

avatar

DiminutiveRocker said:

Meanwhile in Missouri - they are making covid-19 soup:

Yes, it was very crowded at the Lake this weekend. They said all hotels and such were stacked full.

I was at the lake but wasn't at that part of the lake, stayed in our own pop up camper. ^ Boats all over the place, bars full.

FREE Poppy's, RDhull, Mdiver, Shanti0608, 13, BOMBSQUAD, NERO. 2020=Change. Let's make it happen!!
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Reply #953 posted 05/27/20 3:06pm

guitarslinger4
4

avatar

IanRG said:

guitarslinger44 said:


The bit about the US relationship to China was in regard to the Obama playbook. Did you read it?

You can blame Trump, but there's enough blame to go around that laying this solely at his feet is ultra shortsighted.

.

You ask if I have read something, but you failed to read that I have already attributed blame to China as the source. There is nothing in JJs link that means what the republicans blocked and what trump removed is not a key reason leading to trump's current failure. And the state of relationships with China simply does not correlate with success or failure in any country's management of this pandemic.

.

I am only attributing blame to trump for trump's abysmal and self inflicted failures. Seeking to overlook all his errors in preparation, response, timing, bad messaging, blame shifting, politicising PPE, lieing etc so as to ignore what is directly at his feet is deliberate blindness.


So you didn't read any of the playbook. Ok.

One of the bits in the playbook mentioned getting as much info as possible from the origin country early on to help combat things quickly and take steps to keep it from spreading, something that we didn't get because China will China and tried to hide their failure to identify and contain the virus, and also because once it WAS known, they wouldn't let any officials in to get more info.

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Reply #954 posted 05/27/20 3:20pm

IanRG

guitarslinger44 said:

IanRG said:

.

You ask if I have read something, but you failed to read that I have already attributed blame to China as the source. There is nothing in JJs link that means what the republicans blocked and what trump removed is not a key reason leading to trump's current failure. And the state of relationships with China simply does not correlate with success or failure in any country's management of this pandemic.

.

I am only attributing blame to trump for trump's abysmal and self inflicted failures. Seeking to overlook all his errors in preparation, response, timing, bad messaging, blame shifting, politicising PPE, lieing etc so as to ignore what is directly at his feet is deliberate blindness.


So you didn't read any of the playbook. Ok.

One of the bits in the playbook mentioned getting as much info as possible from the origin country early on to help combat things quickly and take steps to keep it from spreading, something that we didn't get because China will China and tried to hide their failure to identify and contain the virus, and also because once it WAS known, they wouldn't let any officials in to get more info.

.

No I did read it. You DID NOT read what I said about China bearing its responsibility and this not allowing anyone to ignore trump's subsequent failures.

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As I said but you failed to read, everyone else is working from the same data out of China - trump failed relative to them - trump's party blocked key legislation in Obama's time, trump dismantled things set up by Obama once he got in, trump repeated dismissed the threat, trump responded slower and less effectively than most other nations, trump has encouraged standing against the processes to manage the pandemic including linking this to threats on gun rights, trump has given medical advice that is beyond stupid. This is why the USA is faring so much worse than many other places. We all have varing degrees of bad relations with China and we were all not told enough early enough by China. You attempt to make this about Obama's playbook and all China's fault does not work. trump has failed worse than most of the rest of world due to his response to the situation we all face.

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Reply #955 posted 05/27/20 3:41pm

guitarslinger4
4

avatar

IanRG said:

guitarslinger44 said:


So you didn't read any of the playbook. Ok.

One of the bits in the playbook mentioned getting as much info as possible from the origin country early on to help combat things quickly and take steps to keep it from spreading, something that we didn't get because China will China and tried to hide their failure to identify and contain the virus, and also because once it WAS known, they wouldn't let any officials in to get more info.

.

No I did read it. You DID NOT read what I said about China bearing its responsibility and this not allowing anyone to ignore trump's subsequent failures.

.

As I said but you failed to read, everyone else is working from the same data out of China - trump failed relative to them - trump's party blocked key legislation in Obama's time, trump dismantled things set up by Obama once he got in, trump repeated dismissed the threat, trump responded slower and less effectively than most other nations, trump has encouraged standing against the processes to manage the pandemic including linking this to threats on gun rights, trump has given medical advice that is beyond stupid. This is why the USA is faring so much worse than many other places. We all have varing degrees of bad relations with China and we were all not told enough early enough by China. You attempt to make this about Obama's playbook and all China's fault does not work. trump has failed worse than most of the rest of world due to his response to the situation we all face.


Go back and read the first post you responded to.

I read what you said and I agree with you on that, but again, the post you were responding to was in regard to the vaunted "Obama playbook" that would have purportedly saved us all. We probably would have done better with it than we are now, but there were some extenuating circumstances that made major parts of it non-admissable. Yeah yeah, trump sucks and all that, I get it, but I don't think you really have any idea what goes into a response to something like this because you aren't taking into account things like population, GDP, healthcare systems, privacy laws, and a host of other things I've already mentioned that go into formulating a country's actions in a situation like this.

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Reply #956 posted 05/27/20 4:43pm

IanRG

guitarslinger44 said:

IanRG said:

.

No I did read it. You DID NOT read what I said about China bearing its responsibility and this not allowing anyone to ignore trump's subsequent failures.

.

As I said but you failed to read, everyone else is working from the same data out of China - trump failed relative to them - trump's party blocked key legislation in Obama's time, trump dismantled things set up by Obama once he got in, trump repeated dismissed the threat, trump responded slower and less effectively than most other nations, trump has encouraged standing against the processes to manage the pandemic including linking this to threats on gun rights, trump has given medical advice that is beyond stupid. This is why the USA is faring so much worse than many other places. We all have varing degrees of bad relations with China and we were all not told enough early enough by China. You attempt to make this about Obama's playbook and all China's fault does not work. trump has failed worse than most of the rest of world due to his response to the situation we all face.


Go back and read the first post you responded to.

I read what you said and I agree with you on that, but again, the post you were responding to was in regard to the vaunted "Obama playbook" that would have purportedly saved us all. We probably would have done better with it than we are now, but there were some extenuating circumstances that made major parts of it non-admissable. Yeah yeah, trump sucks and all that, I get it, but I don't think you really have any idea what goes into a response to something like this because you aren't taking into account things like population, GDP, healthcare systems, privacy laws, and a host of other things I've already mentioned that go into formulating a country's actions in a situation like this.

.

Please stop trying to falsely make this about whether people read something - Nothing you have said is indisputable gotcha.

.

The Obama playbook does not fall apart just because China did not act as it should have. The USA would be in A LOT better place with the Obama playbook than it has been with trump's multilayered SNAFU despite China's secrecy.

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Reply #957 posted 05/27/20 5:32pm

guitarslinger4
4

avatar

IanRG said:

guitarslinger44 said:


Go back and read the first post you responded to.

I read what you said and I agree with you on that, but again, the post you were responding to was in regard to the vaunted "Obama playbook" that would have purportedly saved us all. We probably would have done better with it than we are now, but there were some extenuating circumstances that made major parts of it non-admissable. Yeah yeah, trump sucks and all that, I get it, but I don't think you really have any idea what goes into a response to something like this because you aren't taking into account things like population, GDP, healthcare systems, privacy laws, and a host of other things I've already mentioned that go into formulating a country's actions in a situation like this.

.

Please stop trying to falsely make this about whether people read something - Nothing you have said is indisputable gotcha.

.

The Obama playbook does not fall apart just because China did not act as it should have. The USA would be in A LOT better place with the Obama playbook than it has been with trump's multilayered SNAFU despite China's secrecy.


I'm asking you if you bothered to read the thing I've been referring to in the last several posts or if you're wasting my time like usual. I get it, you have a hard on for wanting to blame Trump, it's a broken record by now, and yeah, he shares some of the blame, but like I've said twice before, there are other factors to take into account for the US's response other than him, and you keep ignoring that and going on with your usual "blame Trump" boner.

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Reply #958 posted 05/27/20 5:58pm

IanRG

guitarslinger44 said:

IanRG said:

.

Please stop trying to falsely make this about whether people read something - Nothing you have said is indisputable gotcha.

.

The Obama playbook does not fall apart just because China did not act as it should have. The USA would be in A LOT better place with the Obama playbook than it has been with trump's multilayered SNAFU despite China's secrecy.


I'm asking you if you bothered to read the thing I've been referring to in the last several posts or if you're wasting my time like usual. I get it, you have a hard on for wanting to blame Trump, it's a broken record by now, and yeah, he shares some of the blame, but like I've said twice before, there are other factors to take into account for the US's response other than him, and you keep ignoring that and going on with your usual "blame Trump" boner.

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I have read it. Nothing in it takes any blame away from trump's specific actions that are killing people. Nothing in it means Obama's plan all falls apart just because China is both a common source of potential pandemics and is too secretive.

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Making an offensive false accusation that I get sexual stimulation from trump's faliure is no defense for trump's failings.

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This is not just a political choice of valid options based on differing political ideologies: People are dieing and you should consider this before you accuse people of getting sexually stimulated by events that are causing the deaths of so many real people. More than 100,000 people have died in your country and a large cause of these deaths is as a direct result of trump's party blocking preparatory legislation, trump failing to act as quickly and effectively as most other world leaders, trump undermining and politicising the response by State governments and Federal departments and trump encouraging dangerous protests and snake oil medical advice. Sure, China's practices started this but this does not absolve trump and it is absolutely justifiable to point this out. trump's failure is why, despite large traffic between Australia and China in the start of this, our track and trace has confirmed that the USA is biggest overseas source of Australian deaths from Covid19 and you want to just dismiss this as me just getting a boner from criticising trump!!!

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This is not about different sides of politics - where I come from the right wing government in Australia is not failing trump-style and is acting similarly to the equally successful left wing government in New Zealand. Both of these governments have not been perfect but both are long way ahead of trump's failure.

[Edited 5/27/20 20:47pm]

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Reply #959 posted 06/01/20 11:38am

cborgman

avatar

amazing how much the tide turned and protesting was suddenly horrible once it was protesting black people being murdered, isnt it?

Power tends to corrupt; absolute power corrupts absolutely. - Lord Acton
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