Dave1992 said:

Let me add this to make it more clear: yes, you're completely right, the odds for any given event are always the same.

It depends on the moment of calculation. In the first post, when I explained this, my calculation was (1/2)x(1/2)..., which actually shows that I agree with the fact that chances remain the same - 50% or (1/2), but when you want to know the odds of a succession of events (which means you want to know the odds of the same number accuring twice in a row BEFORE you have thrown the dice the first time) you need to multiply both probabilities.

So, given I mentioned this when talking about lottery, it was an irrelevant comment, because we always try to calculate the next numbers and are not interested in the probability of successions.

lust said:

Dave1992 said:

Nope, it's not intuition, it IS maths and I just explained and did it for you.

Ok. We've just thrown 9 heads. Very unlikely but also occasionally inevitable. We are about to throw again. What are the odds of it being tails. I say 50%. What say you. You see the previous pattern cannot change the physics of the coin.

I've said it three times already: it is (1/2) or 50%. But I was talking about the probability of a succession of events (which means calculation before it has started).

We haven't thrown a single coin yet. I say the probability that we throw 9 heads in a row is 0,00195 and not 50%. Do you agree?

Dave1992 said:

Oh, and by the way: my original statement about playing the numbers that haven't been selected for a long time was a joke. From the on, I thought both of us were talking about succession and not single cases. Now I realise we've been talking about two different things...

lust said:

Dave1992 said:

Nope, it's not intuition, it IS maths and I just explained and did it for you.

Or to put it another way, the odds of throwing 6 heads in a row are about 1.5% but due to diminishing odds,each successful spin reduces the odds against by half. Until you get to the last coin. The odds are now 50%. It's the same to say of the lottery. Odds of winning are maybe 3billion to one bit with each correctly drawn number your odds are shortened. So now you have 7 of the 8 numbers. The powerball remains. You are on the edge of your seat because you know you have a 1 in 9 chance. By your reckoning you might as well just go out as your odds of getting all the numbers remain at 3billion to one. Does that make sense?

It does make sense and, like I said in my earlier post, we were arguing about two different events.

The odds of getting all the numbers do remain at 3 billion. But if you already have 7 out of 8 you have actually "surpassed" a large portion of the fight against the odds and now you would be looking at the odds of getting this one last number, which are of course much different to the odds of getting all the numbers.

Like I said, it all depends on when you do the calculation - in the middle of the ongoing process of changing odds, calculating for one occasion - or before a succession, wanting to know the odds of that succession. This is irrelevant for the lottery, but I thought you were expanding this argument on actual succession-calculation (which I now see was not the case).

lust said:

Ok. We are at cross purpose. We both agree. You initially stated that numbers that have not come up before are more likely to come up next time which is of course as you now acknowledge is incorrect.

That was not a serious remark. I just thought we were both talking about something different from then on...

You dirty gooner!

Dave1992 said:

lust said:

Dave1992 said:

It does make sense and, like I said in my earlier post, we were arguing about two different events.

The odds of getting all the numbers do remain at 3 billion. But if you already have 7 out of 8 you have actually "surpassed" a large portion of the fight against the odds and now you would be looking at the odds of getting this one last number, which are of course much different to the odds of getting all the numbers.

Like I said, it all depends on when you do the calculation - in the middle of the ongoing process of changing odds, calculating for one occasion - or before a succession, wanting to know the odds of that succession. This is irrelevant for the lottery, but I thought you were expanding this argument on actual succession-calculation (which I now see was not the case).

. Well that's time neither of us will get back. We should argue more often. Everyones a winner......unless they have a lottery ticket.

... and unless we argue about what the best football club on this planet is (in that case, only I will win).

Sure. If you would have won you would have bought me a he-she. lol

Dave1992 said:

So, when is the next draw?

We'r going to buy a ticket together?

dJJ said:

So, when is the next draw?

We'r going to buy a ticket together?

My offer stands for any Mega-Millions pot $300 million or greater.

My FIRST offer, that is. If you want to spend your $$$ on sex, that's your choice!