I've been trading stocks for a living for about a year and a half now. Any other stock market buffs out there? Where do you think the markets are heading in the next six months? Any specific stock tips? Anyone putting their savings into mutual funds? Hedge funds? Pulling out of the market entirely, or perhaps short selling?

I expect this thread to fail miserably but it was worth a shot, lol.

I've been a registered broker for 9 years now. I don't give stock advice but I am a fan of mutual funds.

There is too much room for fraud in hedge funds, in my opinion, because they are unregulated.

I don't see the market doing much better in the next six months. There are too many variables that drive the indexes.

Vendetta1 said:

I've been a registered broker for 9 years now. I don't give stock advice but I am a fan of mutual funds.

There is too much room for fraud in hedge funds, in my opinion, because they are unregulated.

I don't see the market doing much better in the next six months. There are too many variables that drive the indexes.

Cool, I had no idea you were into stocks. In nine years you must have seen a lot of ups and downs eh? Did you start pretty much right after the dotcom crash? How did you handle the '08 crash?

I'm wary of hedge funds too, but recently I invested in a so-called multi strategy hedge fund, which is essentially a hedge fund that hedges its bets even more by being made up of a whole bunch of other hedge funds. Its stability has been absolutely amazing over the last ten years and has yielded an average of 8% or so annually and never gone down on a yearly basis even in years when the indexes dropped sharply.

Funds with a strong history like that are important to me when I make investments, much more important than a good current portfolio or a great-sounding investment philosophy.

As for the next six months I agree that it will be volatile and slow to go in the right direction, but considering that we despite all the turbulence so far this year are at break-even at worst on most markets is a sign of strength so my best guess would be that we'll end the year at around +5% - +10%.

retina said:

Vendetta1 said:

I've been a registered broker for 9 years now. I don't give stock advice but I am a fan of mutual funds.

There is too much room for fraud in hedge funds, in my opinion, because they are unregulated.

I don't see the market doing much better in the next six months. There are too many variables that drive the indexes.

Cool, I had no idea you were into stocks. In nine years you must have seen a lot of ups and downs eh? Did you start pretty much right after the dotcom crash? How did you handle the '08 crash?

I'm wary of hedge funds too, but recently I invested in a so-called multi strategy hedge fund, which is essentially a hedge fund that hedges its bets even more by being made up of a whole bunch of other hedge funds. Its stability has been absolutely amazing over the last ten years and has yielded an average of 8% or so annually and never gone down on a yearly basis even in years when the indexes dropped sharply.

Funds with a strong history like that are important to me when I make investments, much more important than a good current portfolio or a great-sounding investment philosophy.

As for the next six months I agree that it will be volatile and slow to go in the right direction, but considering that we despite all the turbulence so far this year are at break-even at worst on most markets is a sign of strength so my best guess would be that we'll end the year at around +5% - +10%.

Tons of ups and downs but it doesn't affect me as much since I left the trade desk in 2004. I'm in compliance now. The crash didn't affect me much but it hurt my clients. Many have not recovered two years later.

I am glad you've seen great returns on your fund. Be very careful. You have a leg up on most investors because you are knowledgeable. You'd be surprised the number of people who don't research their brokers or the products they are investing in.

Vendetta1 said:

retina said:

Cool, I had no idea you were into stocks. In nine years you must have seen a lot of ups and downs eh? Did you start pretty much right after the dotcom crash? How did you handle the '08 crash?

I'm wary of hedge funds too, but recently I invested in a so-called multi strategy hedge fund, which is essentially a hedge fund that hedges its bets even more by being made up of a whole bunch of other hedge funds. Its stability has been absolutely amazing over the last ten years and has yielded an average of 8% or so annually and never gone down on a yearly basis even in years when the indexes dropped sharply.

Funds with a strong history like that are important to me when I make investments, much more important than a good current portfolio or a great-sounding investment philosophy.

As for the next six months I agree that it will be volatile and slow to go in the right direction, but considering that we despite all the turbulence so far this year are at break-even at worst on most markets is a sign of strength so my best guess would be that we'll end the year at around +5% - +10%.

Tons of ups and downs but it doesn't affect me as much since I left the trade desk in 2004. I'm in compliance now. The crash didn't affect me much but it hurt my clients. Many have not recovered two years later.

I am glad you've seen great returns on your fund. Be very careful. You have a leg up on most investors because you are knowledgeable. You'd be surprised the number of people who don't research their brokers or the products they are investing in.

Well, I'm not as knowledgeable as I'd like to be but I find comfort in knowing that even the hardened old pros don't seem to know what to bet on half the time, lol.

At least I read up on the basics like PE numbers and stay up to date on corporate news and like I said I keep a close eye on the history of both stocks and funds. When it comes to stocks it's amazing how often they follow certain patterns (like head-shoulder formation for example) which helps you predict how they'll go. In the end though, it comes down to simple financial gut feeling. Last year that served me very well and I beat the major indexes by a healthy margin but this year they've outperformed me, so that kind of sucks. There are still a few months to go though...

Too bad that your clients are still hurting from the crash. I think a lot of those who saw half their savings go up in smoke were too shell-shocked to keep their investments, and thereby missed the huge rebound. Talk about a double smackdown...

retina said:

Vendetta1 said:

Tons of ups and downs but it doesn't affect me as much since I left the trade desk in 2004. I'm in compliance now. The crash didn't affect me much but it hurt my clients. Many have not recovered two years later.

I am glad you've seen great returns on your fund. Be very careful. You have a leg up on most investors because you are knowledgeable. You'd be surprised the number of people who don't research their brokers or the products they are investing in.

Well, I'm not as knowledgeable as I'd like to be but I find comfort in knowing that even the hardened old pros don't seem to know what to bet on half the time, lol.

At least I read up on the basics like PE numbers and stay up to date on corporate news and like I said I keep a close eye on the history of both stocks and funds. When it comes to stocks it's amazing how often they follow certain patterns (like head-shoulder formation for example) which helps you predict how they'll go. In the end though, it comes down to simple financial gut feeling. Last year that served me very well and I beat the major indexes by a healthy margin but this year they've outperformed me, so that kind of sucks. There are still a few months to go though...

Too bad that your clients are still hurting from the crash. I think a lot of those who saw half their savings go up in smoke were too shell-shocked to keep their investments, and thereby missed the huge rebound. Talk about a double smackdown...

Yeah, it's unfortunate that a lot of people don't realize that the market always rebounds.

Are you familiar with investopedia and sites like brokersxpress? A lot of helpful and free information.

Vendetta1 said:

retina said:

Well, I'm not as knowledgeable as I'd like to be but I find comfort in knowing that even the hardened old pros don't seem to know what to bet on half the time, lol.

At least I read up on the basics like PE numbers and stay up to date on corporate news and like I said I keep a close eye on the history of both stocks and funds. When it comes to stocks it's amazing how often they follow certain patterns (like head-shoulder formation for example) which helps you predict how they'll go. In the end though, it comes down to simple financial gut feeling. Last year that served me very well and I beat the major indexes by a healthy margin but this year they've outperformed me, so that kind of sucks. There are still a few months to go though...

Too bad that your clients are still hurting from the crash. I think a lot of those who saw half their savings go up in smoke were too shell-shocked to keep their investments, and thereby missed the huge rebound. Talk about a double smackdown...

Yeah, it's unfortunate that a lot of people don't realize that the market always rebounds.

Are you familiar with investopedia and sites like brokersxpress? A lot of helpful and free information.

Nope, never heard of them but I'll definitely check them out. Thanks!

I.LOVE.THIS.THREAD.

I keep telling myself as soon as I have just a little extra dough I'mma start investing... so far I only dabble in virtual money to see if I'm any good...

I love The Fool

RenHoek said:

I.LOVE.THIS.THREAD.

I keep telling myself as soon as I have just a little extra dough I'mma start investing... so far I only dabble in virtual money to see if I'm any good...

I love The Fool

So do I. I also suggest to people that they track stocks for about six months to see how they do.

Vendetta1 said:

RenHoek said:

I.LOVE.THIS.THREAD.

I keep telling myself as soon as I have just a little extra dough I'mma start investing... so far I only dabble in virtual money to see if I'm any good...

I love The Fool

So do I. I also suggest to people that they track stocks for about six months to see how they do.

exactly... and EDUCATE yourself about the company!!

I was really watching the Tesla IPO... thoughts?

RenHoek said:

exactly... and EDUCATE yourself about the company!!

Yup. Or pick a company that you already know well through work-life experience or because it's in a field you're interested in and familiar with.

I nearly always have more success with companies I know well. Some are hyped up by the corporate press and then it's good if you can tell that they're overvalued. Others - and these are the really great opportunities - are considered junk because there's been negative news or a poor quarterly report recently but have a solid business model that's well adjusted for the future.

One such example is a Swedish bank that lost almost 60% (!) of its value this year due to a one time big loss in connection with shutting down one of their branches. People were fearing that they had no clue what they were doing and that they were shutting things down in desperation on the way to bankruptcy, but it was actually a hit definitely worth taking because the branch had no future and it was bleeding money. I went in a little while before it hit its lowest point (you can never time it exactly right) and since then it's gone up at least 15% in just a couple of weeks and by all accounts it will continue much higher. Pretty sweet.

To be honest though, my best investment of all time was in the insurance company MBIA earlier this year, and I don't know the first thing about them. I just studied the graph and took into account the state of the insurance business in general and made a gamble. When I sold about a month later I had made an 80% profit... I might not be so lucky next time though.

RenHoek said:

Vendetta1 said:

So do I. I also suggest to people that they track stocks for about six months to see how they do.

exactly... and EDUCATE yourself about the company!!

I was really watching the Tesla IPO... thoughts?

I don't like hype. Tesla was really hot then it started cooling. Doesn't mean it's not a good, solid investment but I am glad you were watching instead of investing.

retina said:

RenHoek said:

exactly... and EDUCATE yourself about the company!!

Yup. Or pick a company that you already know well through work-life experience or because it's in a field you're interested in and familiar with.

I nearly always have more success with companies I know well. Some are hyped up by the corporate press and then it's good if you can tell that they're overvalued. Others - and these are the really great opportunities - are considered junk because there's been negative news or a poor quarterly report recently but have a solid business model that's well adjusted for the future.

One such example is a Swedish bank that lost almost 60% (!) of its value this year due to a one time big loss in connection with shutting down one of their branches. People were fearing that they had no clue what they were doing and that they were shutting things down in desperation on the way to bankruptcy, but it was actually a hit definitely worth taking because the branch had no future and it was bleeding money. I went in a little while before it hit its lowest point (you can never time it exactly right) and since then it's gone up at least 15% in just a couple of weeks and by all accounts it will continue much higher. Pretty sweet.

To be honest though, my best investment of all time was in the insurance company MBIA earlier this year, and I don't know the first thing about them. I just studied the graph and took into account the state of the insurance business in general and made a gamble. When I sold about a month later I had made an 80% profit... I might not be so lucky next time though.

This is good stuff. You may be cut out for this business. Better you than me. I'm more of a socialist than a capitalist.

butterfli25 said:

Totally. I feel like I gained a couple IQ points by reading this thread.

Tesla has somewhat disappointed me. Looks like they're going to be doing as much work for other companies as they are for themselves. Not necesarilly a bad thing as far as investing in their stock, goes. I just thought they were going to go a different direction.

Cerebus said:

butterfli25 said:

Totally. I feel like I gained a couple IQ points by reading this thread.

Tesla has somewhat disappointed me. Looks like they're going to be doing as much work for other companies as they are for themselves. Not necesarilly a bad thing as far as investing in their stock, goes. I just thought they were going to go a different direction.

This thread gives me hope. I love that you guys are actually paying attention. I did a 30 page research paper last year on investors and how much they put their faith on what their brokers are telling them instead of finding out for themselves.

Vendetta1 said:

Cerebus said:

Totally. I feel like I gained a couple IQ points by reading this thread.

Tesla has somewhat disappointed me. Looks like they're going to be doing as much work for other companies as they are for themselves. Not necesarilly a bad thing as far as investing in their stock, goes. I just thought they were going to go a different direction.

This thread gives me hope. I love that you guys are actually paying attention. I did a 30 page research paper last year on investors and how much they put their faith on what their brokers are telling them instead of finding out for themselves.

By why in the world did I put a comma after stock?

Cerebus said:

Vendetta1 said:

This thread gives me hope. I love that you guys are actually paying attention. I did a 30 page research paper last year on investors and how much they put their faith on what their brokers are telling them instead of finding out for themselves.

By why in the world did I put a comma after stock?

I don't know.

Vendetta1 said:

Cerebus said:

By why in the world did I put a comma after stock?

I don't know.

Still workin' on the first cup pot. Mmmmmm

Cerebus said:

Vendetta1 said:

This thread gives me hope. I love that you guys are actually paying attention. I did a 30 page research paper last year on investors and how much they put their faith on what their brokers are telling them instead of finding out for themselves.

By why in the world did I put a comma after stock?

investor - maybe...

english professor - no...

Cerebus said:

Vendetta1 said:

I don't know.

Still workin' on the first cup pot. Mmmmmm

Totally off topic but I miss coffee. Doesn't taste the same with Splenda or Stevia.

Vendetta1 said:

Cerebus said:

Still workin' on the first cup pot. Mmmmmm

Totally off topic but I miss coffee. Doesn't taste the same with Splenda or Stevia.

I had no intention of jackin' your thread, but why are you using artificial sweetners/sugar substitutes? I'm assuming it's a health/doctor's orders kind of thing. I can't use 'em - the taste is too noticably different to me. If I was ever to be ordered off sugar I'd just go without it.

RE: Tesla...

I thought they started fair outta the gate (it's not like they were going to double in value ) and cooled a little faster than I had expected... Their smartest move was the announcement of the continued production of the E-RAV4 (Toyota design) in their "new" Bay Area plant. I think it's CRITICAL that they make an "approachable" e-car. Sure we'd all LOVE to have the Roadster (150k ) or the S Sedan (60k ) but they really NEED an entry level vehicle, around 30k.

(prices probably not accurate but they're around there... I think.)

Cerebus said:

Vendetta1 said:

Totally off topic but I miss coffee. Doesn't taste the same with Splenda or Stevia.

I had no intention of jackin' your thread, but why are you using artificial sweetners/sugar substitutes? I'm assuming it's a health/doctor's orders kind of thing. I can't use 'em - the taste is too noticably different to me. If I was ever to be ordered off sugar I'd just go without it.

I'm diabetic. And since I can also tell the difference, I just go without coffee. I miss my mocha grandes.

Vendetta1 said:

Cerebus said:

I had no intention of jackin' your thread, but why are you using artificial sweetners/sugar substitutes? I'm assuming it's a health/doctor's orders kind of thing. I can't use 'em - the taste is too noticably different to me. If I was ever to be ordered off sugar I'd just go without it.

I'm diabetic. And since I can also tell the difference, I just go without coffee. I miss my mocha grandes.

Well that stinks. Is this something you found out about recently? I couldn't go without coffee. I've tried. Doesn't work for me.

RenHoek said:

RE: Tesla...

I thought they started fair outta the gate (it's not like they were going to double in value ) and cooled a little faster than I had expected... Their smartest move was the announcement of the continued production of the E-RAV4 (Toyota design) in their "new" Bay Area plant. I think it's CRITICAL that they make an "approachable" e-car. Sure we'd all LOVE to have the Roadster (150k ) or the S Sedan (60k ) but they really NEED an entry level vehicle, around 30k.

(prices probably not accurate but they're around there... I think.)

That's exactly what I meant, actually. I think they did a great job of going "hey! look what we can do!", and using that to attract a lot of attention (i.e. - investors). But I would rather see an entry level car from them than see them work with/for other companies.

Cerebus said:

Vendetta1 said:

I'm diabetic. And since I can also tell the difference, I just go without coffee. I miss my mocha grandes.

Well that stinks. Is this something you found out about recently? I couldn't go without coffee. I've tried. Doesn't work for me.

I got diagnosed right after my 40th BD last year. It's not the worst thing that could of happened. :-D and it is hard going without coffee. My job bores the hell out of me most days and it's hard to stay awake.

RenHoek said:

RE: Tesla...

I thought they started fair outta the gate (it's not like they were going to double in value ) and cooled a little faster than I had expected... Their smartest move was the announcement of the continued production of the E-RAV4 (Toyota design) in their "new" Bay Area plant. I think it's CRITICAL that they make an "approachable" e-car. Sure we'd all LOVE to have the Roadster (150k ) or the S Sedan (60k ) but they really NEED an entry level vehicle, around 30k.

(prices probably not accurate but they're around there... I think.)

What I find funny is how they don't ask the public would they purchase such cars before they manufacture them. I would love an e-car but paying 30 or more is out of the question for me. At least it's a Toyota. I am never buying American again.

RenHoek said:

RE: Tesla...

I thought they started fair outta the gate (it's not like they were going to double in value ) and cooled a little faster than I had expected... Their smartest move was the announcement of the continued production of the E-RAV4 (Toyota design) in their "new" Bay Area plant. I think it's CRITICAL that they make an "approachable" e-car. Sure we'd all LOVE to have the Roadster (150k ) or the S Sedan (60k ) but they really NEED an entry level vehicle, around 30k.

(prices probably not accurate but they're around there... I think.)

Yeah, the prices need to come down but I also think that the battery life needs to get a whole lot better before I would consider getting an electric car. I want to be able to go on road trips without stopping and recharging for a few hours on the way (if you fill up with gas, at least you can keep going immediately). Around 1000 kilometers or so on one charge would be acceptable, but as far as I know the batteries are nowhere near being able to achieve that yet.

retina said:

RenHoek said:

RE: Tesla...

I thought they started fair outta the gate (it's not like they were going to double in value ) and cooled a little faster than I had expected... Their smartest move was the announcement of the continued production of the E-RAV4 (Toyota design) in their "new" Bay Area plant. I think it's CRITICAL that they make an "approachable" e-car. Sure we'd all LOVE to have the Roadster (150k ) or the S Sedan (60k ) but they really NEED an entry level vehicle, around 30k.

(prices probably not accurate but they're around there... I think.)

Yeah, the prices need to come down but I also think that the battery life needs to get a whole lot better before I would consider getting an electric car. I want to be able to go on road trips without stopping and recharging for a few hours on the way (if you fill up with gas, at least you can keep going immediately). Around 1000 kilometers or so on one charge would be acceptable, but as far as I know the batteries are nowhere near being able to achieve that yet.

Prices lowered I agree... as for the charge/range I'm pretty satisfied with where they're at right now. There needs to be another jump in technology before we start talking 1000 kilometers on a single charge... I mean didn't modern diesels just get to that range?

Also... some of the best things I've read about the Tesla are right here in these REVIEWS totally worth a quick read...