While industry executives and shoppers will remember 2008 as the year the party ended, figure 2009 to be the year of the hangover. Already, Circuit City, Linens 'N Things and Mervyn's stores are going away. Sharper Image is too, though the company will continue to sell some of its high-end gadgets through license agreements with other retailers.

More pain is on the way. One-third of U.S. women recently surveyed by America's Research Group said they plan no clothing purchases--none--in 2009. Normally, it's just 4%. That means the market is still far too saturated with stores.

Expect closings and bankruptcies to rattle the likes of Lane Bryant, Gap, and Starbucks. It's the inevitable counterpunch to the days of retailers fighting hand over fist for market share during an era of loose credit and minuscule interest rates.

Those days are over, probably for a long time. While accelerating unemployment will only last so long, consumers' debt loads and credit access don't figure to recover to pre-party levels for quite awhile.

"I don't think we will live the same way for 10 years," says Howard Davidowitz, chairman of New York-based retail consultant and investment bank Davidowitz & Associates. "People are so scared they're starting to save." I wish mofos would quit saying this like it's a bad thing

Retailers at risk in 2009, he thinks, include outerwear specialist Eddie Bauer and teen-apparel-seller Pacific Sunwear, along with Zales, the big jewelry chain. All three shuttered at least 8% of their U.S. stores last year, with many more closings expected. The same is largely true of Charming Shoppes, the owner of Lane Bryant, which closed 150 stores last year. With a mountain of debt and losses totaling over $260 million over the most recent 12-month reporting period, the company will close another 100 locations this year.

Another possible casualty: Sears Holdings, operator of Sears and Kmart stores. A key to hedge fund manager Eddie Lampert's 2005 merger of the two chains was in the underlying real estate. But with those values down 30% or so since then, slumping sales hit even worse.

"I'd be surprised if Sears-Kmart makes it through the year," says Britt Beemer, who runs retail market-research firm America's Research Group.

Non-apparel specialists like Starbucks and Sprint Nextel won't be going away, but they will close hundreds more stores during the coming year, Davidowitz predicts. Narrow specialties (Sprint's cellphones) and high prices (Starbucks' coffee) are tough sells as the consumer mood turns thrifty. What plagues Starbucks will also affect other upscale goody chains like Mrs. Fields' Cookies, and causal dining outlets like Applebee's and Cheesecake Factory. Any of the neighborhood outlets for those restaurant chains could be a casualty this year. For too many customers now, it's McDonald's or bust.

Davidowitz doesn't think a huge government stimulus will help. Better to let things bottom out naturally before regrouping. "Obama's plan will make it worse," he says. "We got into this by borrowing and stimulating, now he wants to borrow and stimulate more."
[Edited 1/22/09 14:28pm]

ANY chain store if at all possible. I will go the extra mile and spend the extra few dollars to only shop at independent small businesses. Shoes, clothes, books and other tangibles all from small retailers, if I can. Groceries, mostly from farmers markets.

I would like for 2009 to be the year of Entrepreneurial Industry and not Corporate Hegemony.

You may say that I'm a dreamer, but I'm not the only one...
~ Lennon

the corporate mentality in this country needs change anyway.

linens'n'things was a stupid bootleg bed bath & beyonce anyway. good riddance!

Anxiety said:

RenHoek said:

In general, I agree with you. But I think there's room for both in our shopping bags.

Just no one stop shopping at Target.

JerseyKRS said:

There's likely to be an uprising like never before in life if Starbuck's closes down....

after march, my work

reneGade20 said:

i miss hobart's starbucks

everytime i go to the mall, i see 3 or more additional places that have went out. i'm starting to wonder what will be left in our mall?

also alot of local places where i live have closed down!

let's see what places will be left at the end of this year? the main places i shop are wal-mart, jc penney, and the outlets mall.

tomorrow I'm going to a brand new mall, I really wonder what will happen to all these places - there was a brand new department store there I've never heard of, and we were the only customers in there last time we went there.

As long as Target stays afloat, I'm good....I can always do my clothes shopping on line....

reneGade20 said:

If Target goes under, so do I!

Wow, even Sears-Kmart is in trouble.

I figured that Starbucks would be one of the places people will cut out when they figure their budget,
because of the high prices of their coffees and it's just a luxury to go there,
you can get coffee elsewhere or brew your own.

Seems like in this economy and high unemployment,
people are forced to re-think their life/survival strategies and learn budgeting.

I know I have, but I'm not worried too much,
seems like although everybody around me (and me too) has been hit hard,
we're all still surviving and I seem to have enough to cover my expenses.
And another good thing is that I've been learning to save the extra money at the end of the month and learned to control my spending.

Right now, the job I work at is considered a luxury and I've seen sales go down dramatically,
even through the holiday season - people just aren't buying.
If we do close shop, I'll just go looking for another job,
I'm a quick learner and usually like to learn everything.
I'll even to McDonalds if I have to.

Been there done that, eh, I could do it again, it wasn't all that bad
(I was a star employee, and so quick I was called 'The Silver Bullet' )










.
[Edited 1/22/09 16:00pm]

CarrieMpls said:

If Target goes under, I'm gonna put 16 years of military training to good use....

now where did I stash that tank?

SCNDLS said:

Please god no, NOT MY STARBUCKS!! I need a Starbucks on every other corner!

CarrieMpls said:

I'm with you both.

I do love me my Target but it is of utmost importance that we support independent businesses.

We should also know what places we spend our money at stand for. A lot of folk hand over $$$ not even knowing some of these corporations have terrible, even discriminatory practices. Make your money COUNT.

Circuit City, until they get serious about this liquidation thing and stop fucking around with this 10% off shit.

errant said:

Even with the 10% off, the shelves were half empty.
What I found funny was that they turned off their escalators and the elevator,
possibly in order to save money.

wildgoldenhoney said:

they had about 7 or 8 iPod classics at the one i was at tonight. i'll bite the bullet when they go 20% off.

errant said:

Then you can probably wait until the prices go down,
hopefully there aren't 9 others waiting for the prices to drop too.

I think I'll wait until 40% off or if the prices becomes cheaper than Best Buy.


The other day I compared the price of an SD card and found a 4gig for $12 at Best Buy,
while the cheapest SD card was still about $20,
and it wasn't even 4gig, but 2gig.
How can their prices still be so high?

wildgoldenhoney said:

They prolly raised the prices during the liquidation and are discounting from a higher price.

Ummm...Saks?

hehe

GetAwayFromMe said:

Well my store is having layoffs at the managment level, and our hours have been cut.but so far we're still in business.

Dayclear said:

Where do you work?
[Edited 1/23/09 7:34am]

CarrieMpls said:

Having shopped at both I never see what people find attactuve in Taget compared to wal mart? There are fewer three eyed fucks roaming the ailses at target, but other than that the stuff for sale is about the same

sort of like comparing lowes to home depot

ThirdandFinal said:

to each their own is probably the best way to sum it up..for me, Wal-Mart's merchandise looks cheap, the stores in and around the area where I'm stationed are usually dirty with sticky floors, poor service (especially in the electronics department where they can't even answer a simple question about a product) and the aforementioned three eyed fucks roaming and clogging the aisles....working the registers....stocking the shelves....

again, that's just me....I don't get hives when I shop at Target....much more relaxed shopping environment....

ThirdandFinal said:

Being a guy, you may not notice the difference in what's being sold.

The choices in apparel, home decor and overall design are markedly different though, as well as grocery stuff these days.

Having said all that, I work for Target headquarters, so if they were to have a major crisis, I'm out of a well paying job and so is a sizable chunk of downtown Minneapolis.