I live about a mile away form the Hayward fault, my Dad lives about two miles away .



Economic Devastation Predicted For Hayward Quake

http://www.ktvu.com/news/...etail.html

HAYWARD, Calif. -- The economic loss from a magnitude 7.0 earthquake on the Hayward fault could reach $210 billion, much higher than the $125 billion in damage caused by Hurricane Katrina, according to an insurance risk analyst.

Mary Lou Zoback of Risk Management Solutions delivered the sobering forecast at a preview news conference for an earthquake conference that will be held later this month at California State University, East Bay.

Even worse, only about 7 or 8 percent of the economic losses caused by an earthquake on the Hayward fault, which would be focused along the East Bay's urban core, would be covered by insurance, according to Zoback.

By comparison, about half of the damage caused by Hurricane Katrina was covered by insurance, Zoback said.

"We're talking about huge potential losses to private businesses and homes and we're not even including public buildings and infrastructure," Zoback said.

U.S. Geological Service seismologist Brad Aargaard played new computer simulations at the conference that uses three-dimensional geologic and seismic models that he said will help the public better understand the consequences of a temblor on the Hayward fault.

Aargaard said the simulations, which incorporate dozens of scenarios, could show city planners and emergency managers the various patterns of shaking for which they need to prepare.

The magnitude of earthquake and where the rupture starts have a strong influence on the impact of a quake, he said.

Homes, businesses, schools and other essential infrastructure built in areas underlain by soft sediments are at significantly greater risk during intense ground shaking, according to Aargaard.

Aargaard noted that Oct. 21 will be the 140th anniversary of the 1868 Hayward earthquake, which was one of the worst ever to hit the Bay Area.

He said the five most recent large earthquakes on the Hayward fault have occurred an average of about 140 years apart, so a repeat could happen at any time.

David Schwartz, the co-chair of the 1868 Hayward Earthquake Alliance, said, "We expect that the next large earthquake will happen sooner rather than later."

Zoback said that although the predictions about the likelihood of a large earthquake are scary, the good news is that the Bay Area was better prepared to deal with one that most regions are.

Zoback said, "We're making progress, but there's a lot left to be done" to be even better prepared.

Keith Knudsen, a member of the Earthquake Engineering Institute, said another piece of good news is that many cities in the Bay Area have adopted good programs to deal with a large earthquake.

"Practical solutions to many of the earthquake risks we face are readily available," he said.

Knudsen said the Earthquake Engineering Institute has compiled a list of "best practices" used throughout the Bay Area and has put them on its Web site

i know where you're coming from. i loved living in oakland, but the threat of that *one* quake did give me pause. it's only a matter of time, but that time may not be soon. hopefully

move to orange county. our quakes are on a lower scale.

XxAxX said:

The Bay Area has so many pluses like breathtaking views, outstanding weather year round, lots of sports teams, tons of thing to do, etc....but there is always that "Big One" cloud hanging around.

At least we don't get Hurricanes, tornados, ice storms, etc...

PEJ said:

PEJ said:

F that cesspool! Move to LA!

SupaFunkyOrgangrinderSexy said:

san diego is more fun than LA or the city
[Edited 10/15/08 13:58pm]

XxAxX said:

Yeah but Supa is not there....he is more fun than all three!

Sowhat said:

buy a gun

horatio said:

SupaFunkyOrgangrinderSexy said:

Sowhat said:

tornados are scared of air

I live a scant 2 hours or so from the New Madrid Fault. We've been given a 90% chance of a 6.0 magnitude quake occuring in the next 40 years. Doesn't sound so bad but there was a TV show about 5 years ago that estimated the damage to St. Louis and Memphis should we get the 8.0+ that most people in this region fear. Nasty...

SupaFunkyOrgangrinderSexy said:

LA is old and run down. One big quake and that joint is goin down. BTW don't you live in Garden Grove?

Don't be scared!! I live 5 blocks from the Hayward fault and the trick is to never let'em smell your fear!!!

Just buy plenty of food and water for an emergency and ride it out...

DIRT SURFERS OF THE BAY UNITE!!!

RenHoek said:

We always have plenty of extra water and food stored away.

ooh, then you can root for a baseball team that wins!!

JerseyKRS said:

Damn..that's cold.

Sowhat said:

I have no room to talk after this season.

JerseyKRS said:

But at least you have the Rays to root for.

Sowhat said:

this is true, if they win tonight, I'm totally going to a World Series game, that's something you just don't miss, right??

JerseyKRS said:

Totally inexcusable to miss for any true Baseball fan!!!!

And I am actually enjoying the Rays run...there is a very obnoxious Red Sox Fan here where I work that doesn't like me very much right now

Sowhat said:

OF COURSE he's obnoxious.

JerseyKRS said:

You're right...my bad....I was stating the obvious

I guess his equivalent here would be CarrieLee.

The top 10 things you would miss, if you moved, from closest to within about three hours....

1) Everett & Jones on A Street (Cora the Angel).

2) The iceplant and the quarry on 580.

3) The Coliseum (I'm not gonna call it Oracle or Net Ass or any other moniker)

4) The weather we're having now and every October, which stretches until Thanksgiving. That includes Thanksgiving Dinner in shorts.

5) Tim Roy announcing The Dub's; "elevation sensation". Greg Papa announcing the Raiders - Someday they'll win again. The memories of Bill King announcing the A's (and also the Dub's and the Raiders).

6) Redwood trees as tall as the eye can see within 15 minutes in Redwood Regional Park

7) The City, enough said

8) The Wine Country - Napa and Sonoma

9) Monterey/Carmel/Big Sur

10) The Pacific Ocean

Bonus #11) Lake Tahoe

You got to stay here. There's no place else to go!

oldmanjohnson said:

AMEN BRUDDA!!! I'll deal with a little shaky-quaky for all o' dat... Hey, if I lived through the shake in '89 and the bake in '91 then I must be here to stay...

oldmanjohnson said:

Dude...I must have been trippin' hard! You are absolutely right. It is going to be in the low 80's today and tomorrow.

And thanks for reminding me..it's been a while since I've been to E & J's, I'm going this weekend!

RenHoek said:

I went through both too. Was getting ready to watch the World Series (Bay Bridge Series) when bam the 89' quake hit.

I was at the Oakland zoo with my neice when the big Oakland fire started. I remember first seeing it from the Elephant area. A bunch of smoke and people were talking about 50 houses being burnt. Then it kept getting bigger and bigger...over 2,000 houses were gone by the end of that day.

Sowhat said:

Yep! That was crazy times...

I volunteered to do S&R at the Cypress Freeway after the quake and I drove a team of Tahoe Fire Jumpers around during the fire so I'm kinda in LOVE with my hometown... reputation and all...