State of the Race: 8/1
by kos
Fri Aug 01, 2008 at 09:40:10 AM PDT

The 7/1 edition of this featured is here, when the tally was Obama 317, McCain 221. I give the states to whoever leads in the Pollster.com polling aggregates. I slacked on updates the last four weeks because nothing much seemed to change. But with the flurry of new polls the last week, we are starting to see things move again.

For this edition, the tally is Obama 336, McCain 202.

Compared to the last edition, Obama has lost his lead in Indiana, but gained new narrow ones in Florida and Montana. All Kerry states remain in Obama's hands, most of them fairly comfortably.

Whether it's my count or Pollster.com's count or Real Clear Politics' counts (here and here), fact is that Obama currently enjoys a sizable lead.

The jackasses in the media may try and play this as a tied game, or that Obama should be winning by more (so it's good for McCain!), but the reality is much tougher for Republicans. McCain has a serious challenge on his hands. That's why they've gone hard negative. They ain't gonna win this one unless they can drag Obama into the mud.

http://www.dailykos.com/